The following quick scenarios assume that the AFC South runner-up (Colts/Titans) wins the first wildcard, and that no games end tied. If Miami finishes the season…
5-0: Wildcard assured (obviously, based on current overall records). Also, any Pats loss (besides vs. Miami) gives the Dolphins the AFC East.
4-1: Only Denver can deny us a wildcard, and the Broncos must finish 5-0 in order to do it (but in that case the Broncos would take it, no matter which game we lost). The AFC North runner-up (Bengals/Ravens) cannot finish 5-0, since they play each other again.
3-2: This remains complicated, but here’s a quick rundown. Only Denver or the AFC North runner-up could cost us a wildcard, and only if one or both went 4-1. In this scenario, the outcome still depends on which games each team loses (AFC/NFC). If Denver goes 4-1 with an AFC loss (any of its next four games) then Miami’s three wins would have to come over the Pats, Bills and Jets to have a chance. In that case, If Denver’s loss is to Indy, then Miami is in (via record in ‘common games’); if Denver’s only loss is to the Raiders, Chiefs or Browns, the tiebreak would go to all the way to ‘strength of victory’ (Miami leads, but this changes weekly).
Early warning: Miami’s defeat of Baltimore could be nullified in a 3-way tie with Denver at 10-6 (via the ‘head-to-head sweep’ rule).
Overall, with Denver facing some tough opponents (Colts, Chiefs, Packers in Lambeau) and the AFC North runner-up already guaranteed a sixth loss (barring a tie), Miami looks reasonably good for a wildcard even with a 3-2 finish. But it’s nowhere near guaranteed.
Every game remains critical, but Dallas (as an NFC opponent) is not quite a ‘must-win.’ The season is not yet on the line. Winning Thursday would really put the pressure on New England though, at Indianapolis on Sunday.
Excruciatingly detailed tiebreak scenarios, for those of you who enjoy this sort of thing, will follow next week and thereafter.
5-0: Wildcard assured (obviously, based on current overall records). Also, any Pats loss (besides vs. Miami) gives the Dolphins the AFC East.
4-1: Only Denver can deny us a wildcard, and the Broncos must finish 5-0 in order to do it (but in that case the Broncos would take it, no matter which game we lost). The AFC North runner-up (Bengals/Ravens) cannot finish 5-0, since they play each other again.
3-2: This remains complicated, but here’s a quick rundown. Only Denver or the AFC North runner-up could cost us a wildcard, and only if one or both went 4-1. In this scenario, the outcome still depends on which games each team loses (AFC/NFC). If Denver goes 4-1 with an AFC loss (any of its next four games) then Miami’s three wins would have to come over the Pats, Bills and Jets to have a chance. In that case, If Denver’s loss is to Indy, then Miami is in (via record in ‘common games’); if Denver’s only loss is to the Raiders, Chiefs or Browns, the tiebreak would go to all the way to ‘strength of victory’ (Miami leads, but this changes weekly).
Early warning: Miami’s defeat of Baltimore could be nullified in a 3-way tie with Denver at 10-6 (via the ‘head-to-head sweep’ rule).
Overall, with Denver facing some tough opponents (Colts, Chiefs, Packers in Lambeau) and the AFC North runner-up already guaranteed a sixth loss (barring a tie), Miami looks reasonably good for a wildcard even with a 3-2 finish. But it’s nowhere near guaranteed.
Every game remains critical, but Dallas (as an NFC opponent) is not quite a ‘must-win.’ The season is not yet on the line. Winning Thursday would really put the pressure on New England though, at Indianapolis on Sunday.
Excruciatingly detailed tiebreak scenarios, for those of you who enjoy this sort of thing, will follow next week and thereafter.
