Another Take on the Offensive Line, Ryan Tannehill, and Sacks in 2013

[Shouright]

Of course Ryan Tannehill is one of the variables in the totality of sacks. All quarterbacks are.

While this article from Football Outsiders doesn't cover the entire 2013 season, it does try to break down why sacks occur. You should see that the Dolphins offense line gave up 35 of the 45 sacks due to blown blocks. According to Football Outsiders, a blown block is when a blocker is simply physically beaten by a defender.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2013/under-pressure-sacks-confusion

Although the data you referenced above is certainly interesting and reflects a great contribution to the current thread (which I appreciate :up:), the problem with it is that when you combine the percentage of sacks due to blown blocks and confusion (presumably what would reflect the fault of the offensive line), it doesn't add to the percentage of variance in sack rate accounted for by the variables in the original post. The percentage of variance accounted for by the three variables combined is still 62%, which is no different from the percentage of the variance accounted for by the two variables in the original post, percentage of pressured dropbacks and time to release the ball.

Moreover, the two variables in the original post are significant predictors of sack rate in the model, and the third variable (based on the data you presented above) is not.

So, the upshot of that, in other words, is that Ryan Tannehill remains the biggest outlier in the league when you consider the variables that actually predict sack rate, and that isn't changed at all by the inclusion of the data you referenced.

 

[BlueFin]

Well I think it's clear at this point that your overall view is at odds with itself.

---------- Post added at 09:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:20 AM ----------

What's your basis for that assertion?

well let's see...let's start with a positive td/int ratio versus 2012 where it was negative.

Improve QB rating efficiency numbers...more yards more td's.....was it not obvious to all he improved?

Or should we do a study?

 

[spiketex]

1)The more things "change" the more they stay the same :idk:

2)Oh and "Gravity" connotes "getting to be on the bottom" eh?

3)...and furthermore: somewhere in this self-indulgent clusterfork of a thread, the OP accuses someone else of being in conflict with themselves.. how about this from yesterday's Excursion Into Parsing & Denial?

90%+ Negatively fixated on Tannehill.
It makes me wonder if he's on the payroll of the cheese factory or the baby oil factory?

 

[Shouright]

well let's see...let's start with a positive td/int ratio versus 2012 where it was negative.

Improve QB rating efficiency numbers...more yards more td's.....was it not obvious to all he improved?

Or should we do a study?

I think we should, because TDs aren't a terrific measure of QB play, and his QB rating and efficiency numbers weren't significantly different from those he posted in 2012.

 

[BlueFin]

Great find GE...and that wasn't even the final numbers....Ryan would go down 13 more times after that anaylsis.

I wonder what the final blown block numbers were?

Thats what I saw happening more often than not, blown blocks or simply over matched lineman.

This is not to say Ryan has some room for improvement in the pocket or in his maturation as a QB.....which I think we all realize is an ongoing process.

But last year, the majority of the cause of these insanely high sack numbers and that we are even discussing this subject is degradation of the line starting with big jakes departure , Martin, Incog....etc etc etc.

 

[Geforce]

Although the data you referenced above is certainly interesting and reflects a great contribution to the current thread (which I appreciate :up:), the problem with it is that when you combine the percentage of sacks due to blown blocks and confusion (presumably what would reflect the fault of the offensive line) ,it doesn't add to the percentage of variance in sack rate accounted for by the variables in the original post. The percentage of variance accounted for by the three variables combined is still 62%, which is no different from the percentage of the variance accounted for by the two variables in the original post, percentage of pressured dropbacks and time to release the ball.

So, the upshot of that, in other words, is that Ryan Tannehill remains the biggest outlier in the league when you consider the variables that actually predict sack rate, and that isn't changed at all by the inclusion of the data you referenced.

Why would you presume that? Missed blocks due to confusion at time can also be contributed to the quarterback, running back or tight end.

Predict sack rate? Are you saying the rate at which quarterback is sacked the same for all sixteen games?

 

[BlueFin]

A big number for me in QB play is TD/INT ratio....and he definitely improved greatly there.

 

[BlueFin]

Let me also add....the pass protect by the running backs sucked this year.

 

[Shouright]

Why would you presume that? Missed blocks due to confusion at time can also be contributed to the quarterback, running back or tight end.

We get the same result when we restrict the new variable in the model to blown blocks only, excluding confusion. 62% of the variance in sack rate is predicted, and the percentage of blown blocks is not a significant predictor.

Predict sack rate? Are you saying the rate at which quarterback is sacked the same for all sixteen games?

Sack rate is nothing more than the number of sacks divided by the number of pass dropbacks on the season.

 

[Shouright]

A big number for me in QB play is TD/INT ratio....and he definitely improved greatly there.

Well it might be a big number for you, personally, but it correlates with win percentage only at 0.31. That can be compared with adjusted net YPA, for example, which correlates with wins at 0.63.

 

[Geforce]

Great find GE...and that wasn't even the final numbers....Ryan would go down 13 more times after that anaylsis.

I wonder what the final blown block numbers were?

Thats what I saw happening more often than not, blown blocks or simply over matched lineman.

This is not to say Ryan has some room for improvement in the pocket or in his maturation as a QB.....which I think we all realize is an ongoing process.

But last year, the majority of the cause of these insanely high sack numbers and that we are even discussing this subject is degradation of the line starting with big jakes departure , Martin, Incog....etc etc etc.

It's not just the things you mentioned but also the play calling. The lack of moving of the pocket either left or right. The lack of rollouts, bootlegs, safety valve receivers or the dreaded checkdown.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

We also have this article which concludes that the OL needs to step it up and the OC should be calling more rollouts and the running game needs to improve to give play action a chance.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1806618-what-traditional-stats-dont-tell-you-about-ryan-tannehill-dolphins-struggles

This article from early in the season which included these comments:

While Tannehill's inexperience and youthful indecision are occasional factors in this season's sacks, he's often besieged before he can get ready to throw.

Sometimes the tight end or running back whiffs on a block, but the most egregious lapses are by the offensive linemen, who find themselves receiving unwanted publicity.

Tweaks in the offense could help, with formations with two tight ends and more rollouts for the athletic Tannehill among the options. But the best way for the Dolphins to reduce sacks might be to run better so they can pass less.

The ground threat has been next to nonexistent, and the Dolphins are on pace to set a franchise record for fewest yards rushing in a season.

http://pro32.ap.org/article/dolphins-qb-tannehill-record-sack-pace

How about this article placing the blame for the 7 sacks against the Bills:

There is plenty of blame to go around when a team allows seven sacks. But McKinnie had perhaps his worst game since being acquired by the Dolphins near the trade deadline.

http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/4169/dolphins-film-review-seven-sacks

Here is another article that uses 2012 data for time to throw and time to sack and comes to this conclusion:

Tannehill has the third lowest time to sack in the league. To me the data suggests Tannehill gets rid of the ball quickly enough but that an O-line that could buy him another .46 seconds. (still the 10th lowest time) could eliminate quite a few sacks.

To have that quick a release as a rookie bodes well for his future. It’s already the kind of release that allows more experienced QB’s to make a defense pay for blitzing. Experience will add to quicker reads but the data doesn’t support the argument that Tannehill holds the ball too long.

And makes this statement about time to throw and time to sack:

There’s a correlation between how long a player takes to throw and how high an average time to sack they have.

http://www.afcenews.com/tannehill-gets-bad-rap-sacks/2014/01/08/

Here is an interesting analysis of Tannehill against the Bills by Ron Jaworski:

Miami’s Offensive Line struggles to communicate and trade-off D-Line stunts and pick up pressure schemes, which results in a lot of quick pressure on Ryan Tannehill

Miami’s WRs and TEs did not help their QB much last week in Buffalo with dropping several catchable passes, and struggled to generate separation down the field when running their routes.

Ryan Tannehill has displayed good pocket awareness and mobility in stepping up and sliding within the pocket to elude pressure and extend plays to allow him to throw the ball down the field – solid pocket feel, presence for young QB.

Tannehill needs to improve his pre-snap recognition and take advantage of voids/openings in the Defense, as well as getting out of bad plays based on Defensive alignment or blitz schemes to get his Offense into as many optimum looks as possible.

This directly matches with one of Tannehill's complaints about Sherman's offense. It is a progression read offense that DOES NOT take advantage of mismatches noticed pre-snap.

http://ronjaworski.com/jaws-bites-122613-week-17/

There are TONS of articles that all support the same conclusions - the OL was atrocious and Tannehill is a promising young QB.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Why would you presume that? Missed blocks due to confusion at time can also be contributed to the quarterback, running back or tight end.

Predict sack rate? Are you saying the rate at which quarterback is sacked the same for all sixteen games?

And finally we have Gravity doing what he always does..... He is standing outside getting wet claiming that it isn't raining because his prediction model says it shouldn't be raining.....

 

[tazthenomad]

Well the big issue with the stats it gives nothing about Tannehill that suggests the sacks are on him except for hurries. Its funny the year before the sacks were a manageable number and then the only change this year was the tackles so wouldn't that suggest the changes on the line would be more of the cause unless somehow Tannehill regressed at an amazing level this year

Your point is spot on. Either you believe that RT regressed at an astonishing level in this area compared to other parts of his game where he improved or there are other factors here.

 

[2413fanphins]

thumbs down.