Another Take on the Offensive Line, Ryan Tannehill, and Sacks in 2013

[BlueFin]

Unbelieveable.....If you don't work for government...you should be. You fit right in trying sell the country with stats that unemployment is down.

 

[Shouright]

Unbelieveable.....If you don't work for government...you should be. You fit right in trying sell the country with stats that unemployment is down.

There won't ever be a day where I think the subjective perceptions of people heavily emotionally invested in one outcome and not another hold any weight. If they comport with the objective data, great; if they don't they should be tossed out the window in my opinion.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Unbelieveable.....If you don't work for government...you should be. You fit right in trying sell the country with stats that unemployment is down.

Every analysis of the actual sack plays BY INDEPENDENT analysts come to the same conclusion. The line was to blame for the sacks.

Not to mention that this conclusion was backed up by the actions of the team.

 

[jim1]

There won't ever be a day where I think the subjective perceptions of people heavily emotionally invested in one outcome and not another hold any weight. If they comport with the objective data, great; if they don't they should be tossed out the window in my opinion.

Really? And are you not heavily invested in your subjective belief that objective statistics are far superior to subjective perceptions, ie watching and actually studying the game? Then do everyone a favor and don't hold any weight in your own opinions.

Same poster, same fart smell, different site. Shouright was banned at thephins.com and for good reason. Here's the m.o.- find some questionable stats that "support' a bogus theory that doesn't make sense, get posters riled up and pissed off and then ask them to prove him wrong by unwinding his half-assed statistical b.s. Then get banned and spray the fart smell on some new, unsuspecting Dolphins website.

There are any number of variables and statistics at play when it comes to pass protection, five OL plus TE''s and RB's, not to mention how long the QB holds the ball and how adept he is at avoiding the rush, mentally and physically. Focusing on Tannehill's release time in the first paragraph of the OP is questionable at best- I've seen arguments where it's been said that Tannehill's quick release time is proof that Mike Wallace was at fault as per the sickening deep ball underthrows, not RT. Really? Could have been that maybe RT, quick release and all, just waited too long to throw deep to Wallace?

Regardless, talk about deja vu- same annoying game from shouright, ie "Gravity", piss people off by misusing statistics and then play the "prove me wrong" game. When people have had their fill at finheaven, just like they did at thephins, he'll probably get banned again and go to another site schlepping the same annoying game, maybe calling himself "Matrix" next time. Shouright's posts are actually kind of funny until the monotony of the obnoxiousness starts to wear on you. You'll see.

 

[tazthenomad]

Except that when you compare the Dolphins to other teams in the league with regard to the "other factors" that would most likely explain the team's performance in this area, Tannehill is the biggest outlier in the league.

Given that his play really didn't improve significantly, objectively speaking, it's entirely possible that when more was put on his plate in terms of running the offense, he was overloaded, and he responded by being unable to manage a similar amount of pressure on him from opposing defenses. He may have been unable to manage the increase in the "multi-tasking," so to speak, that he was asked to do.

---------- Post added at 11:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:25 AM ----------

And meanwhile the variable alluded to in the post is a non-significant predictor of sack rate in the NFL.

You gave me the impression that you knew something about statistics at some point. I'm disappointed.

This is the reason I haven't been responding directly to you. You are so lost that you think every criticism of your use of statistics is a personal attack or a misunderstanding of what you are trying to say.

I use statistics at work. I have had training in statistics and their practical use and I have been certified to train others in stats. Your use of statistics creates models that don't work. That is because you rely on average based correlation models to do things that they aren't intended to do. Arguing over which of your models is the best is generally like arguing over which technique of using a hammer is best for inserting a screw into a threaded hole.

You are entitled to your opinion but your continual belittling of others "subjective" opinion based on what you present as "objective" is unfair.

 

[CalDolFan10x14]

How many damn takes a week do you need to tell us that you're obsessed with Ryan Tannehill? This is borderline annoyance if you ask me.

 

[dlockz]

This is the reason I haven't been responding directly to you. You are so lost that you think every criticism of your use of statistics is a personal attack or a misunderstanding of what you are trying to say.

I use statistics at work. I have had training in statistics and their practical use and I have been certified to train others in stats. Your use of statistics creates models that don't work. That is because you rely on average based correlation models to do things that they aren't intended to do. Arguing over which of your models is the best is generally like arguing over which technique of using a hammer is best for inserting a screw into a threaded hole.

You are entitled to your opinion but your continual belittling of others "subjective" opinion based on what you present as "objective" is unfair.

Esp when he starts using PFF as his objective data

 

[CalDolFan10x14]

Esp when he starts using PFF as his objective data

 

[Shouright]

This is the reason I haven't been responding directly to you. You are so lost that you think every criticism of your use of statistics is a personal attack or a misunderstanding of what you are trying to say.

I use statistics at work. I have had training in statistics and their practical use and I have been certified to train others in stats. Your use of statistics creates models that don't work. That is because you rely on average based correlation models to do things that they aren't intended to do. Arguing over which of your models is the best is generally like arguing over which technique of using a hammer is best for inserting a screw into a threaded hole.

You are entitled to your opinion but your continual belittling of others "subjective" opinion based on what you present as "objective" is unfair.

If what you're saying is accurate, then I think it would be fairly easy to come up with some statistical support for the idea that the Dolphins' offensive line was at fault for the portion of the team's sacks that was extraordinary. If it's a matter only of using a "screwdriver" rather than a "hammer," then where is it?

I'll tell you what -- since obviously I'm not averse to doing the work to investigate these issues, you go ahead and tell me what methods and data you think I should use, and I'll get back to you and the board with the results.

Finally, I don't mean to "belittle" others' subjective opinions. However, I think in an area in which confirmation bias is likely to run rampant, I think they should be used only to generate hypotheses to be tested with and confirmed or disconfirmed by objective data, not as conclusions with any certainty attached to them in their own right. They have their place, but in this particular realm it's a small one in my opinion.

 

[Unchained 07]

if what you're saying is accurate, then i think it would be fairly easy to come up with some statistical support for the idea that the dolphins' offensive line was at fault for the portion of the team's sacks that was extraordinary. If it's a matter only of using a "screwdriver" rather than a "hammer," then where is it?

I'll tell you what -- since obviously i'm not averse to doing the work to investigate these issues, you go ahead and tell me what methods and data you think i should use, and i'll get back to you and the board with the results.

watch the games!!

 

[Shouright]

watch the games!!

If that method were sufficient for producing knowledge with any certainty, why do we have so much disagreement about the same topics and events by people who presumably watch all the games? That can't possibly be a reliable method of knowledge acquisition in this area.

If watching the games told us all we needed to know, then everyone who watches the games would agree about what they're seeing. Surely you don't see that happening here in the least, do you?

 

[Unchained 07]

If that method were sufficient for producing knowledge with any certainty, why do we have so much disagreement about the same topics and events by people who presumably watch all the games? That can't possibly be a reliable method of knowledge acquisition in this area.

If watching the games told us all we needed to know, then everyone who watches the games would agree about what they're seeing. Surely you don't see that happening here in the least, do you?

You're right, there is no certainty as football is a game with many moving parts and variables and is not a science. Watching the game or perhaps the all 22 would at least give you a perspective so that you can have an intelligent discussion or debate about it. I'll say it again, what goes on in the big green box with the white lines on Sunday is not directly transferable to the little tiny boxes on your spread sheets no matter how much you want it to be.

 

[Shouright]

You're right, there is no certainty as football is a game with many moving parts and variables and is not a science. Watching the game or perhaps the all 22 would at least give you a perspective so that you can have an intelligent discussion or debate about it. I'll say it again, what goes on in the big green box with the white lines on Sunday is not directly transferable to the little tiny boxes on your spread sheets no matter how much you want it to be.

Well here's but one example of what can be seen when one uses that method:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-playbook/0ap2000000269528/Playbook-Dolphins-vs-Patriots

Now, obviously that doesn't mean Ryan Tannehill was at fault for all 58 of the team's sacks in 2013, but it certainly points toward the need for more than just the typical viewing of games on Sundays, by people who likely have a strong need to view Ryan Tannehill as their adequate QB of the future.

 

[cafinfan408]

I love pizza but i cant eat it everyday shou.. Your making everyone hate stats

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Really? And are you not heavily invested in your subjective belief that objective statistics are far superior to subjective perceptions, ie watching and actually studying the game? Then do everyone a favor and don't hold any weight in your own opinions.

Same poster, same fart smell, different site. Shouright was banned at thephins.com and for good reason. Here's the m.o.- find some questionable stats that "support' a bogus theory that doesn't make sense, get posters riled up and pissed off and then ask them to prove him wrong by unwinding his half-assed statistical b.s. Then get banned and spray the fart smell on some new, unsuspecting Dolphins website.

There are any number of statistics at play when it comes to pass protection, five OL plus TE''s and RB's, not to mention how long the QB holds the ball and how adept he is at avoiding the rush, mentally and physically. Focusing on Tannehill's release time in the first paragraph of the OP is questionable at best- I've seen arguments where it's been said that Tannehill's quick release time is proof that Mike Wallace was at fault as per the sickening deep ball underthrows, not RT. Really? Could have been that maybe RT, quick release and all, just waited too long to throw deep to Wallace?

Regardless, talk about deja vu- same annoying game from shouright, ie "Gravity", piss people off by misusing statistics and then play the "prove me wrong" game. When people have had their fill at finheaven, just like they did at thephins, he'll probably get banned again and go to another site schlepping the same annoying game, maybe calling himself "Matrix" next time. Shouright's posts are actually kind of funny until the monotony of the obnoxiousness starts to wear on you. You'll see.

I had no idea he was banned on another site. Man that makes me jealous....