Not Dolphins related, but I've changed my mind multiple times on Marcus Mariota. Before he ever became a starter at Oregon I loved him, and posted that on USC forums. I couldn't believe Oregon was wasting time with guys like Darron Thomas above him.
In late 2013 I soured on Mariota's pro potential. He looked weak and vulnerable, too much of a system fit. Stanford made him look terrible for three quarters and that was hardly the only example.
In 2014 I switched to Yes. Then back to No immediately after the season. Now I'm back to Yes and I think I'll stay there.
It reminds me a little bit of the Kelvin Benjamin situation last year. Completely different positions, obviously. I knew lots of guys who didn't like Benjamin at all as a pro. Extremely sharp guys. Not merely here. Friends in Las Vegas and elsewhere. I couldn't go along with it for fairly basic reasons. Benjamin had been rated very high for too long and had made huge plays in key situations against top rated teams and players. That was too much to dismiss via nitpicking subjectivity. I was Yes on Benjamin.
The NFL doesn't make too many quarterbacks look inept these days, not with all the mediocre defenses and rules changes favoring the offense. Mariota is hardly a physical specimen but I think he'll be a good if not spectacular pro. There aren't any character red flags like lifelong prima donna Robert Griffin.
My overall draft philosophy has altered in recent years, not recent months. I previously favored trading down as long as it was within the top 40. But that was before Miami demonstrated a total inability to find star players without a severe advantage. Even the third pick is not enough of an edge, apparently. I'm convinced we need as much of a crutch as possible, so yeah trade up if we've targeted someone.
I despise subjectivity overall. That's why I welcome metrics to the draft process. In betting I can use statistical and situational angles and know I've twisted the advantage in my favor. But in that realm I can be wrong 43-45% of the time and still be very successful. That doesn't apply to the draft.
