AllFinsAllDay
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Saw this on another forum and i straight copied it because it was interesting and tells a lot about people on this site.
I wanted to talk about yesterday's game, specifically, the final score. Let's get the obvious out of the way. We lost - 21 to 23. Losing sucks. But I think, depending on your perspective, all may not be lost.
The Optimist: I'm a natural optimist. Looking at our losses, it's very easy to quantify our results into something meaningful. The New Orleans game was and will be an aberration. Good teams get blown out, especially if they're playing in a high-profile prime time game. This was Ryan Tannehill's first appearance on Monday Night Football; it's reasonable to assume that he had some big game jitters. I watched the game, and I think that's a perfectly acceptable way to look at his performance. The other two losses are more easily explainable. We lost by 3 points to the defending champs - who may be struggling a bit but are the defending champs, and lost by 2 points to an underrated Buffalo team at home. Baltimore has had our number seemingly for years, we always play them close but we typically end up on the short end of the box score. Buffalo, at first glance, seems like a Waterloo in our season, a "We are who we thought we were" type of moment that regressed us back to the norm. But the optimist in me sees that final score - only a 2 point loss, against a hungry Buffalo team rallying around their QB situation. The Bills still have a very good defense, thaTat hasn't changed (regardless of who is under center). Coming off the bye, is it possible that this team got caught looking ahead to New England and taking the Bills for granted? I certainly think so. The Bills game has all the trappings of a classic trap game, with a decent team looking to the future (and Tom Brady) instead of focusing on the present. From here we are going to turn the corner in New England and use that as a springboard to get us back into playoff contention.
The Pessimist: Our season is over. Ryan Tannehill is not the answer. The Bills game was the last straw for this team. Three straight losses have doomed us to another season of mediocrity or worse. Good teams don't lose to bad teams, especially at home, and especially within the division. Looking at our spate of upcoming games, it's hard to see a lot of wins coming our way. New England and Cincinnati are both going to be tough games. Rob Gronkowski is going to treat is like a frat girl. From there it doesn't get any easier. Tampa Bay has to get a win at some point. San Diego, Carolina, and (I can't believe I'm typing this) the New York Jets are all going to be tough outs. Rex Ryan's defense is going to destroy this offensive line. It's very easy to see a scenario where we are sitting at 4-8 with two thirds of the season gone. From there we get the Steelers, who are having a little bit of a down year but always seem to have our number (sort of like the Ravens - what is with these AFC North teams?). Then we get to the murderer's row portion of our schedule - New England, Buffalo, New York. Two out of three on the road. In December. In the northeast. Sure, we might win one or even two of those games, but there's no way this team is escaping with anything better than a 6-10 or maybe a 7-9 record. Jeff Ireland, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Clabo, everyone not named Cameron Wake needs to go. And maybe even Wake, since he can't stay healthy any more and may be at a point where he's simply too old to be effective.
The Realist: You can't look at the last three games in a vacuum, any more than the first three. When looking at our 3-0 start, we won both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Indianapolis 24-20 and Atlanta 27-23). When looking at our last 3 losses, we lost both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Baltimore 23-26 and Buffalo 21-23). This team hasn't changed since the start of the season - they've simply regressed back to the mean. Some folks call it luck - but it's really statistics. Over the course of a typical NFL season (which has a much too small sample size) it's reasonable to assume that a team will win 50% of games decided by a touchdown or less. The 2013 Miami Dolphins aren't an exception to the rule - they are the rule, personified, through 6 games of the season. (If you want an exception to the rule, look at last year's Colts team - 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less). What does that mean for the rest of the season in Miami? It's reasonable to expect us to continue to split these games as they happen - most likely finishing with a record somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7.
As I said up above, I'm a natural optimist. I don't think that this team is as bad as they've played over the course of the last several games. Cameron Wake should be back at near full strength for next week's game at New England. We finally have the athletes on defense to compete with Brady and company. I like the matchups there. Dion Jordan is a work in progress. That said, you don't trade up to the third overall pick for a project. You're wanting instant impact. Thus far, through six games and one sack, he hasn't shown it. Tannehill is the same way. 83.1 isn't a bad QB rating. But it's not great either. (It's also right in line with some of the other more heralded QBs - RGIII is at 83.4, CKap is at 85.0). I'd like to see Tannehill cut down on the mistakes (especially the turnovers - right now those are just killing us) and stop pressing so much. The real problem, I think, is that Tannehill doesn't have a great pocket presence. He doesn't have a great situational awareness, and this offensive line is just getting him killed. Did you know that Tannehill is now the most sacked QB in the NFL this season? If there's one area of the team I'm pessimistic about, it's this offensive line, which, outside of Pouncy, is beyond offensive and just abysmal. If this team continues to struggle - and it's certainly within the realm of possibility - then most likely it will be due to this line, which is currently ranked (and this was before yesterday's "performance" ) as 27th in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Blech. If this offensive line can turn the corner - just get into the conversation at 20th or even middle of the pack - there's enough talent for this team in other areas to be dangerous. Will that happen?
Well I guess that depends on your point of view. Are you an Optimist, a Pessimist, or a Realist? I'm curious to see how everyone else is feeling this morning.
The Optimist: I'm a natural optimist. Looking at our losses, it's very easy to quantify our results into something meaningful. The New Orleans game was and will be an aberration. Good teams get blown out, especially if they're playing in a high-profile prime time game. This was Ryan Tannehill's first appearance on Monday Night Football; it's reasonable to assume that he had some big game jitters. I watched the game, and I think that's a perfectly acceptable way to look at his performance. The other two losses are more easily explainable. We lost by 3 points to the defending champs - who may be struggling a bit but are the defending champs, and lost by 2 points to an underrated Buffalo team at home. Baltimore has had our number seemingly for years, we always play them close but we typically end up on the short end of the box score. Buffalo, at first glance, seems like a Waterloo in our season, a "We are who we thought we were" type of moment that regressed us back to the norm. But the optimist in me sees that final score - only a 2 point loss, against a hungry Buffalo team rallying around their QB situation. The Bills still have a very good defense, thaTat hasn't changed (regardless of who is under center). Coming off the bye, is it possible that this team got caught looking ahead to New England and taking the Bills for granted? I certainly think so. The Bills game has all the trappings of a classic trap game, with a decent team looking to the future (and Tom Brady) instead of focusing on the present. From here we are going to turn the corner in New England and use that as a springboard to get us back into playoff contention.
The Pessimist: Our season is over. Ryan Tannehill is not the answer. The Bills game was the last straw for this team. Three straight losses have doomed us to another season of mediocrity or worse. Good teams don't lose to bad teams, especially at home, and especially within the division. Looking at our spate of upcoming games, it's hard to see a lot of wins coming our way. New England and Cincinnati are both going to be tough games. Rob Gronkowski is going to treat is like a frat girl. From there it doesn't get any easier. Tampa Bay has to get a win at some point. San Diego, Carolina, and (I can't believe I'm typing this) the New York Jets are all going to be tough outs. Rex Ryan's defense is going to destroy this offensive line. It's very easy to see a scenario where we are sitting at 4-8 with two thirds of the season gone. From there we get the Steelers, who are having a little bit of a down year but always seem to have our number (sort of like the Ravens - what is with these AFC North teams?). Then we get to the murderer's row portion of our schedule - New England, Buffalo, New York. Two out of three on the road. In December. In the northeast. Sure, we might win one or even two of those games, but there's no way this team is escaping with anything better than a 6-10 or maybe a 7-9 record. Jeff Ireland, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Clabo, everyone not named Cameron Wake needs to go. And maybe even Wake, since he can't stay healthy any more and may be at a point where he's simply too old to be effective.
The Realist: You can't look at the last three games in a vacuum, any more than the first three. When looking at our 3-0 start, we won both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Indianapolis 24-20 and Atlanta 27-23). When looking at our last 3 losses, we lost both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Baltimore 23-26 and Buffalo 21-23). This team hasn't changed since the start of the season - they've simply regressed back to the mean. Some folks call it luck - but it's really statistics. Over the course of a typical NFL season (which has a much too small sample size) it's reasonable to assume that a team will win 50% of games decided by a touchdown or less. The 2013 Miami Dolphins aren't an exception to the rule - they are the rule, personified, through 6 games of the season. (If you want an exception to the rule, look at last year's Colts team - 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less). What does that mean for the rest of the season in Miami? It's reasonable to expect us to continue to split these games as they happen - most likely finishing with a record somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7.
As I said up above, I'm a natural optimist. I don't think that this team is as bad as they've played over the course of the last several games. Cameron Wake should be back at near full strength for next week's game at New England. We finally have the athletes on defense to compete with Brady and company. I like the matchups there. Dion Jordan is a work in progress. That said, you don't trade up to the third overall pick for a project. You're wanting instant impact. Thus far, through six games and one sack, he hasn't shown it. Tannehill is the same way. 83.1 isn't a bad QB rating. But it's not great either. (It's also right in line with some of the other more heralded QBs - RGIII is at 83.4, CKap is at 85.0). I'd like to see Tannehill cut down on the mistakes (especially the turnovers - right now those are just killing us) and stop pressing so much. The real problem, I think, is that Tannehill doesn't have a great pocket presence. He doesn't have a great situational awareness, and this offensive line is just getting him killed. Did you know that Tannehill is now the most sacked QB in the NFL this season? If there's one area of the team I'm pessimistic about, it's this offensive line, which, outside of Pouncy, is beyond offensive and just abysmal. If this team continues to struggle - and it's certainly within the realm of possibility - then most likely it will be due to this line, which is currently ranked (and this was before yesterday's "performance" ) as 27th in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Blech. If this offensive line can turn the corner - just get into the conversation at 20th or even middle of the pack - there's enough talent for this team in other areas to be dangerous. Will that happen?
Well I guess that depends on your point of view. Are you an Optimist, a Pessimist, or a Realist? I'm curious to see how everyone else is feeling this morning.
