I would be very hesitant to make an exception for hand size. I'm old enough to have been aware of the draft since the late '60s, and followed it very closely since the mid '70s at latest. There have been numerous changes in focus. Among all of them I'd say hand size among quarterbacks is among the most valuable, and would have altered countless selections over the decades if awareness had been there.
I remember all of Joel Buchsbaum's phrases, like bubble butt (which Mayock tries to claim), and Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. Despite his reputation and wide network of sources, Buchsbaum didn't have hand size for decades, which means scouts weren't feeding it to him as a meaningful criteria.
IMO, quarterback evaluation became exponentially more difficult once spread offenses started to dictate the college game, and some conferences became defense optional, as hoops puts it. Prior to that I thought it was relatively easy to reject certain guys, no matter how highly they were rated. On that Las Vegas radio program on KDWN I was always asked as draft analyst which quarterback I hated, because my track record had been great with guys like David Klingler and Andre Ware and Todd Marinovich and Tim Couch and Akili Smith and Cade McNown, etc.
Then came the spread, which coincided with me starting to devote less time to personnel to begin with. So now I often have no clue about quarterbacks, but I don't always want to concede as much. Well, I have a base idea but not the confidence level or any energy to study the matter. Studying was intentionally crammed into those wee hours in the '80s and '90s...devouring trends and stats by hand and later by computer to develop reliable plug and play systems. I damn sure didn't want to be relying on daily subjectivity in my 50s and 60s and 70s, like so many sad cases I witnessed in Las Vegas.
There's some idiot faking a handoff in the spread or read option or RPO. And I'm supposed to care? Mostly I don't. If every college team played like the Jaguars today, then I'd care. Gorgeous physical offense with logical offshoots. Bortles actually looked like the UCF version again, and not that wobbly pass unconcerned joke of a quarterback from 2016.
I like Darnold the best. Just seems like he doesn't question for one second that he's already among the best and will stay there for a long time. Rosen seems like Matt Ryan with more of a frail frame. It doesn't help that he also reminds me of squirmy Paul Ryan. Josh Allen...now that's a tough one. Seems like he will break sharply either way, unlike someone like Ryan Tannehill, for example. I would bet the low end if forced, but not with any conviction. Why is a great quarterback at Wyoming? When in doubt --- big picture simplicity. I remember rejecting Akili Smith on that radio show for some of the same reasons -- low completion percentage and not ideal touch on short to mid range throws. However, Smith was a late bloomer somewhat like Tannehill, still playing college quarterback beyond his 23rd birthday. I don't like that type of thing. Josh Allen is proper age, not yet 22.
Mayfield is another tough one. I don't trust guys who bounce from college to college. Sometimes he makes it look so simple but upon closer inspection the scheme enabled the play. I have to concede the Big 12 somehow has incredibly sophisticated and easy to execute route trees and reads. They can terrorize all but the best defenses. Every time I want to accept Mayfield unconditionally there are stretches like that second half of the Georgia game, where he sometimes looked overmatched and often seemed downright scared to risk a tight window. Do you want a championship opportunity or not?
In the old NFL I'd reject Mayfield but with these rules I have to give him the benefit of a doubt upward. Beyond anything, if I said No to a guy with 11.1 and 11.5 YPA in consecutive seasons and it went the other way I'd feel like I betrayed myself.
I saw someone post on a draft forum that if Mayfield played 5 more years in college he still wouldn't know what to do with projecting Mayfield to the NFL. I feel the same way.
Rudolph looks like a solid Tannehill level quarterback. Maybe poor man's Tannehill. He'll be easier to judge in the combine once the arm strength and athletic ability in relation to his peers is in full view. The offense and caliber of receivers he enjoyed may have skewed things upward.
Jackson didn't put up enough points or yards in his two bowl games for me to consider him early. I have a Las Vegas friend who uses that criteria with quarterback prospects and he connects far more often than he misses. Two years ago he loved Dak Prescott because of the 50-odd points Prescott hung up on a North Carolina State defense that was not lacking in talent. He told me matter of factly leading up to the draft that only Deshaun Watson had put up passing numbers and points like that against North Carolina State.
Similar to j-off-her-doll, I don't like any of these guys as much as Deshaun Watson last year. You aren't supposed to be able to rally from 14 down in the 4th quarter against Alabama.
I'll spread a rumor that Tannenbaum loves J.T. Barrett.
