Baker wants to be a dolphin

[AJ Duhe]

Am I missing something? Why does anyone like Josh Allen as a top prospect? Yeah, he has a cannon, he has height, he has some movement skills, but his numbers are troubling.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

He played 3 less games this year so his yardage was way down, but so was his Yards/Attempt. More troubling is that he posted back to back 56% completion percentage. So he's throwing shorter yet his completion percentage stayed the same. Who was the last successful NFL QB with a college completion percentage under 60%?

 

[Lovethefish]

That's Drew Brees's exact height, apropos of nothing. Mike Vick was a quarter-inch shorter than that.

The combination of height and hand size become relevant in the evaluation. We have never seen a QB in NFL history that measured 6ft with small hands and non-elite athleticism.
Brees- big hands 10 1/4 hands
Vick arguably most athletic QB in history. Wilson- elite escapability & 10 1/4 hands.

Baker is short and is not the athlete of Wilson or Vick quality.

 

[Lovethefish]

Am I missing something? Why does anyone like Josh Allen as a top prospect? Yeah, he has a cannon, he has height, he has some movement skills, but his numbers are troubling.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

He played 3 less games this year so his yardage was way down, but so was his Yards/Attempt. More troubling is that he posted back to back 56% completion percentage. So he's throwing shorter yet his completion percentage stayed the same. Who was the last successful NFL QB with a college completion percentage under 60%?

You said it yourself. He has a cannon and all the measurables. Not a strong arm, an absolute cannon. He throws ropes dare I say it on this site- Marino style deep outs.

 

[ckparrothead]

I think that misses the point on Josh Allen by a country mile.

The arm strength is fantastic, obviously. But that's not why he's rated high. He's rated high because HE MAKES PLAYS. His reel of A+ plays stacks up next to the A+ reel of any QB that has ever played the game.

It's not about arm strength. That's such a simplistic way of looking at it. Making big plays is about size, strength, feet, mentality, vision, accuracy, and yes, arm strength.

Last year when he had a good ground game (this year it was awful, he had to carry the team by himself, and in a pro style offense that's a big disservice), I thought he made good decisions. Good balance between making plays nobody else can make, and taking what the offense wants to give you within structure. This year at times that went off the rails a little bit.

People are talking about this guy as if it's all arm strength and size. It's not. He's closer to a Johnny Manziel or a Patrick Mahomes as a prospect than he is a Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden, or Davis Webb, big guys with fantastic arm strength.

Except unlike Manziel or Mahomes, Allen has been working in a pro style system and has a head start on a bunch of other players.

The guy that was pretty much Mr. Preseason this year was Cooper Rush with the Dallas Cowboys. He was a guy that had the physical tools, but really the most outstanding part of him as a prospect was just how translatable he was to an NFL offense based on what he was asked to do at Central Michigan (under John Bonamego, who used to be on the Dolphins coaching staff). He gets over to the NFL and at least during preseason work he's outstanding. But he has just average to maybe even below average physical tools, very little play making history. Josh Allen has tools, and he's been making truly jaw-dropping plays.

Carson Wentz is another example because when he came out the things he had going for him out of NDSU (we're talking 1.5 years experience at an FCS level football program!) were that he had an outstanding physical tools profile, really good interviews, came from a pro style system and knew all kinds of things other prospects didn't, won football games, and made plays.

Well in comes Josh Allen, who played at Wyoming (not a great level of football either, but a sight better than North Dakota State), has two years starting experience, played in the same pro style system as Wentz, has an outstanding physical tools profile, makes plays on tape, and supposedly is an outstanding interview (has been interviewing for pro teams since last off season and that's the reason he's been rated so high).

I laugh when people try and differentiate Carson Wentz from Josh Allen as if it's soooo obvious they're so different. As prospects, no they're not. Carson Wentz threw 62.5% completion his last season at NDSU versus Josh Allen's 56.3%. It's not as if Wentz was one of those 75% completion guys you see (almost exclusively in spread systems). Wentz threw for 1651 yards, 17 TDs and 4 INTs his final year. Allen threw for 1812 yards, 16 TDs and 6 INTs.

 

[Lovethefish]

I think that misses the point on Josh Allen by a country mile.

The arm strength is fantastic, obviously. But that's not why he's rated high. He's rated high because HE MAKES PLAYS. His reel of A+ plays stacks up next to the A+ reel of any QB that has ever played the game.

It's not about arm strength. That's such a simplistic way of looking at it. Making big plays is about size, strength, feet, mentality, vision, accuracy, and yes, arm strength.

Last year when he had a good ground game (this year it was awful, he had to carry the team by himself, and in a pro style offense that's a big disservice), I thought he made good decisions. Good balance between making plays nobody else can make, and taking what the offense wants to give you within structure. This year at times that went off the rails a little bit.

People are talking about this guy as if it's all arm strength and size. It's not. He's closer to a Johnny Manziel or a Patrick Mahomes as a prospect than he is a Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden, or Davis Webb, big guys with fantastic arm strength.

Except unlike Manziel or Mahomes, Allen has been working in a pro style system and has a head start on a bunch of other players.

The guy that was pretty much Mr. Preseason this year was Cooper Rush with the Dallas Cowboys. He was a guy that had the physical tools, but really the most outstanding part of him as a prospect was just how translatable he was to an NFL offense based on what he was asked to do at Central Michigan (under John Bonamego, who used to be on the Dolphins coaching staff). He gets over to the NFL and at least during preseason work he's outstanding. But he has just average to maybe even below average physical tools, very little play making history. Josh Allen has tools, and he's been making truly jaw-dropping plays.

Carson Wentz is another example because when he came out the things he had going for him out of NDSU (we're talking 1.5 years experience at an FCS level football program!) were that he had an outstanding physical tools profile, really good interviews, came from a pro style system and knew all kinds of things other prospects didn't, won football games, and made plays.

Well in comes Josh Allen, who played at Wyoming (not a great level of football either, but a sight better than North Dakota State), has two years starting experience, played in the same pro style system as Wentz, has an outstanding physical tools profile, makes plays on tape, and supposedly is an outstanding interview (has been interviewing for pro teams since last off season and that's the reason he's been rated so high).

I laugh when people try and differentiate Carson Wentz from Josh Allen as if it's soooo obvious they're so different. As prospects, no they're not. Carson Wentz threw 62.5% completion his last season at NDSU versus Josh Allen's 56.3%. It's not as if Wentz was one of those 75% completion guys you see (almost exclusively in spread systems). Wentz threw for 1651 yards, 17 TDs and 4 INTs his final year. Allen threw for 1812 yards, 16 TDs and 6 INTs.

The single most distinguishable trait about Josh Allen is his arm. It's off the charts.
Perhaps its a simplistic evaluation, but then let's consider the forum and the original question presented.
Ultimately he will go top 5 because as stated his arm and measureables.
In terms of vision and ability to make plays, I think Darnold is the kid that shows said knack.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Who was the last successful NFL QB with a college completion percentage under 60%?

A bunch.

Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, Michael Vick, Trent Green, Mark Brunell, Jake Delhomme, Aaron Brooks, Jim Everett...

Basically the entire pro football Hall of Fame is filled with quarterbacks who never completed better than 60% of their passes in college. Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Joe Montana, Dan Fouts, etc.

Even John Elway was below 60% 2 of 4 years at Stanford. They said he couldn't win. He never even led Stanford to a bowl game.

Carson Palmer was below 60% 3 of 5 years he was at USC. Matthew Stafford below 60% 2 of 3 years at Georgia.

Jim Kelly was below 60% 3 of 4 years at Miami.

Eli Manning below 60% 2 of 4 years at Ole Miss. Donovan McNabb the same at Syracuse.

Russell Wilson below 60% 3 of 4 years until he transferred to Wisconsin his Senior year.

Matt Hasselbeck below 60% 2 of 3 years at Boston College. Jimmy Garropolo didn't surpass 60% until his Senior year.

Drew Brees and Tom Brady just barely surpassed the 60% mark. Heck, Rich Gannon played in a Wing-T offense in college.

Anyone using statistics to evaluate quarterbacks needs to stop and contemplate a better method. If it was as simple as looking at stats, evaluating quarterbacks would be easy. Anybody could do it, and they'd never be wrong. Unfortunately, completion percentage does not equate to accuracy. It's no reflection at all. It's more a reflection of the style of offense and the difficulty of the throws.

Josh Allen is a freakshow of physical talent from his toes to his ears....executing pro style concepts that are more difficult than any of these spread concepts. Doing it with absolutely nothing at his disposal in terms of help.

Where I believe you're accurate is that he needs some quality coaching to overcome some habits, however his upside is off the charts. Allen has not great, but Hall of Fame physical skills. That's what the NFL bets on. Not blistering stats. Stats don't translate. The talent does.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Why?
The weather? The lifestyle? Maybe but there's Tampa and The LA Rams and lifestyles when people are young and wealthy and responsibility free (no kids) is just as good in many places as Miami. OK Miami is the sexiest place on the planet - but still...Millions in most USA cities gets you plenty of sexy!

Gase? yeah I think its the combo - Gase - where he could be drafted and a place to develop for a year or two and then move on from Tannehill...

Miami is crazy to pass on him if we can get him...Just sayin.

I'm starting to feel that way as well. Look I like Tannehill, but how much higher is his ceiling? I certainly get that he's played behind some pretty bad offensive lines as well.

But Miami is chasing the Patriots, who have been on top of the football world for nearly 20 years. If you can upgrade at quarterback you do it.

 

[Lovethefish]

It's a tough call for Miami in this regard-
If they roll with RT17, sit at 11 and you can take a Derwin James or high end DEF prospect, fix you OL & LB via FA & Draft- it's a clear path to 10-6.

10-6 + Playoffs = Extensions & Kudos to all.

The alternative, drafting a QB, may be biting bullet short term but if he is elite- well that's a game changer.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I like Mayfield more, but I value him in a similar range; I have him 20-32 of the 1st (at this point). I agree that a lot of the improv will be limited by his athleticism, and that will require an adjustment on his part. I think that competitive nature will help in the adjustment. He played much better against tough D's in 2017 than he did in 2016. He will also have to adjust to NFL offenses, coming from Oklahoma, but I think his best qualities are accuracy and seeing the field/quick reactions. I don't think he processes the game as well as Watson, who (imo) showed a rare understanding of how to attack pressure points, but Mayfield is probably the closest thing - just less aggressive. Darnold has a lot of similarities to Watson once the play breaks down, but he's more erratic than Watson or Mayfield. The other QB's in this class (best-case) need pretty ideal situations to succeed. Mayfield and Darnold need help, too, but I think each jas skills to overcome some adversity. To be clear, Darnold has - by far - the highest ceiling, and he's the only QB in the class I'd consider sliding into the top 10, but I don't think he'd necessarily overcome being drafted by the Browns.

I think this class is a little worse than the 2017 class. I don't see a guy I love the way I loved Watson, and while Darnold and Mayfield are higher on my board than Trubisky or Mahomes (or Kizer), Rosen, Allen, Jackson, and Rudolph are all lower than those players. Of the guys in that group, Rudolph is the guy I like best. I would prefer him in the 3rd, but I don't think he's there when Miami drafts in the 2nd.

As a Miami fan, I'd rather see the team bypass the position than reach on this group, but I would be interested to see how the new group evaluates the QB position.

I'm kinda the opposite of you in this particular instance. I liked last year's QB class, but this one is one of the best I've seen in a long time. Nobody around here liked last year's quarterback class. Read the threads.

Hell, nobody liked the one before that either. Or any of em going all the way back to about 2008. I just don't think anybody around here likes quarterbacks. They're all busts. Overrated. From Matt Ryan to Derek Carr to Jared Goff to Deshaun Watson.

I remember xxWARxx trashing Goff...he threw 5 interceptions in a game once against Utah. Apparently he just didn't see any of em.

I know you loved Watson. I tried to tell Tannenballs that he was the best player in college football prior to his Junior season when I had him ranked high. I saw what he did to Alabama's defense. I remember Tannenballs saying he didn't think he was even 1st round player. He specifically said Mitch Trubisky was the best QB in the class and it wasn't even close.

It was close. Believe me. Problem with Watson though is that his knees are made of gingerbread. Kinda like Sam Bradford's shoulders.

Kizer went to Cleveland. Nobody can overcome that. Not in the situation that was. Awful.

I liked all three quarterbacks...Trubisky, Kizer and Watson. Couldn't really decide on what order. That's a little how I still feel about the top 3 in this class in regards to Darnold, Rosen and Allen.

I'm dead serious when I reiterate time and again that Rosen is one of the 3 or 4 best I've ever scouted from the pocket. Timing, accuracy, anticipation. Watch him...it just can't get much better than that. It doesn't.

Darnold can be so good it's scary. Nobody has faced tougher situations than he has. He's impressed me every single time.

Any one of em could end up being the best. They could all 3 end up being franchise players. I've said it so many times, these kids are so early in their development. So much depends on the situation they land in, as it did for Watson, Trubisky, and Kizer.

As for Miami, I don't care who they draft. I know most posters here are only interested in viewing the draft from the Dolphins perspective. Not me. That's not why I do this. Not why I view 400 prospects year round. What Miami does or doesn't do is irrelevant. I hate that people keep torturing themselves with it. Don't understand it at all.

 

[ckparrothead]

My guys last year were Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Admittedly, I was just ready to pass on the others in the 1st round, including Trubisky. We will see where that goes.

The year before is where I did not really like anyone, to my own detriment. Carson Wentz I liked watching from a talent perspective but I thought people were losing their damn mind from a risk control perspective. I hate when everyone just suddenly starts changing the rules and acts like they’re not changing anything. Goff, I just didn’t see it. Period. Sucks for me, apparently.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Agree on Wentz. I still think they got more lucky with him at this point than anything.

Obviously they liked him a lot, but trading up to take a kid #2 overall from the FCS and it coming up all roses this soon has a certain ring of fortune to it in my opinion. Damn that's lucky. Getting some good coaching too.

Knew Derek Barnett was a stud. That one was easy. Eagles are getting pretty good at this acquiring talent thing.

Miami still don't get it. They just don't get it.

 

[Lovethefish]

Agree on Wentz. I still think they got more lucky with him at this point than anything.

Obviously they liked him a lot, but trading up to take a kid #2 overall from the FCS and it coming up all roses this soon has a certain ring of fortune to it in my opinion. Damn that's lucky. Getting some good coaching too.

Knew Derek Barnett was a stud. That one was easy. Eagles are getting pretty good at this acquiring talent thing.

Miami still don't get it. They just don't get it.

I disagree with you on Wentz in this regard- Philly made an evaluation - they saw what they loved the QB and bet on him- because the upside is everything. Despite this being a QB league, the position is undervalued by most organizations.

I think we agree that this year is indeed rare, lets say comparable to the QB class of 2004. That draft provided those franchises with incomparable stability. If you think about the great franchises of the last 10 years, Giants, Steelers, Pats, Packers- lesser extent Falcons
& Saints. It's the QB.
It's not a stretch to compare Allen to Big Ben (size- big plays), Rosen to Rodgers (checks every box), Darnold to Eli (uncanny ability to make clutch plays).
If you believe in one of these QBs- you go get him. What is this obsession with 2nd RD picks. This year and next? There is no guarantee they will amount to what you expect. Nor will they impact your organization.

We can look at the Packers organization and examine their personnel decisions, can argue they've been dreadful in building a team- it doesn't matter- they chose Rodgers. He masks everything.

Here's another thing, these QBs exist- they aren't fairy tale unicorns. Wentz is real. Andrew Luck is a stud- he can be Marino like. Russell Wilson can be Steve Young. Wentz can be Montana like.
These kids are better trained, schooled, prepared from early age better than ever. Nutrition wise, strength, conditioning, development- heck even scouting wise.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Good measurements for Mayfield -- 6-0 3/8 and 9 1/2 inch hands. He would have earned more skepticism if either number had fallen below the respective Mendoza Line.

Of all the comparisons being thrown around I have to say Allen as Roethlisberger is the one I don't get at all. Roethlisberger always displayed very impressive touch and accuracy at Miami-Ohio. During his final 26 games in college he had exactly one below the 56% level that is Allen's career norm, and most of Roethlisberger's games in that two-year stretch were in the mid 60s or higher. His completion percentage was 65.5% for his college career.

Allen is a gamble on greatness and adjustments and patience. Roethlisberger was already very close to a finished product, as his bowl game against Louisville demonstrated. I still don't understand how he slipped so comparatively far when that game was on the plate. I remember rooting for him to somehow fall into a range where the Dolphins might trade up for him, but since we already made the brilliant commitment to A. J. Feeley we didn't have the ammo or interest.

Roethlisberger was so pro-ready he had the best rookie season of any quarterback since Marino, at 8.9 YPA. In fact, he was 8.9 YPA each of his first two seasons. I don't think even Josh Allen's most ardent supporters would propose anything similar for him. He's likely to be baffled and erratic out there. Actually I have a feeling that's why some Tannehill fans don't mind the Allen selection as they would some others at the position. They realize Allen won't be ready so it buys plenty of time for Tannehill, but if Allen does fully deliver then it's a more lofty level than Tannehill is capable of.

I also don't like Rosen as Rodgers. Rosen is a frail and self-protective type. Rodgers at Cal had the weird Tedford ball position and defaulted to short passes all the time, too much for my liking. But Rodgers had movement skills and unquestionable moxie.

 

[mrbunglez]

Here’s Mayfields measurements from the senior bowl:
Corrected wingspan measurement from earlier tweet on Baker Mayfield: Height: 6003 (6'0 3/8) Weight: 216 Hand: 9 1/2 Arm: 30 1/2 Wingspan 73 7/8

 

[ckparrothead]

Glad to see Baker Mayfield just got good at controlling and throwing a football because the ruler measuring the space between his thumb nail and pinky nail says so.