Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith

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Ghetti13

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First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".
 
Ghetti13 said:
First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".
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First of all, Alex Smith does not have a weak arm to begin with. His arm strength is an unknown because the system Urban Meyer ran never allowed him to showcase that arm. What I've seen on film though is that he does have good velocity on his throws, which is the best indicator of arm strength.

Secondly, Alex Smith does need to gain weight, but I don't think gaining weight will increase arm strength. If it could, then we should have had Jay up to 250 lbs. Alex is 217 and probably needs to be at a healthy 225 to withstand the punishment of a 16 game schedule. However, there are posters on here who are clamoring for Adrian McPherson, who is the same height as Alex Smith yet 5 lbs lighter (212 lbs). So, I don't understand why some knock Alex for being thin yet want to promote McPherson.

Thirdly, picking Alex Smith will depend on how much of a drop off Nick Saban feels there is from him to the QBs we could be targeting in the third round area. Quarterbacks like Adrian McPherson, David Greene, and perhaps Andrew Walter. If that drop off is greater than the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to players like Vernand Morency, Frank Gore, and Kay Jay Harris, then you may see Nick go for Alex Smith and then pick up one of those backs.

However, if Nick feels the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to Vernand Morency is greater than the dropoff from Alex Smith to David Greene, then I believe you will see Nick go with Ronnie Brown and then grab David Greene.
 
I think looking at the drop off between two players would not be a very bright way of making the decision. Saban will draft the best player for this organization. Other players will not dictate who they take. If Miami drafts with that frame of mind, like they did for the Wannstedt era, we will continue to draft poorly. Your premise, in my opinion, is incorrect.
 
KB21 said:
First of all, Alex Smith does not have a weak arm to begin with. His arm strength is an unknown because the system Urban Meyer ran never allowed him to showcase that arm. What I've seen on film though is that he does have good velocity on his throws, which is the best indicator of arm strength.

Secondly, Alex Smith does need to gain weight, but I don't think gaining weight will increase arm strength. If it could, then we should have had Jay up to 250 lbs. Alex is 217 and probably needs to be at a healthy 225 to withstand the punishment of a 16 game schedule. However, there are posters on here who are clamoring for Adrian McPherson, who is the same height as Alex Smith yet 5 lbs lighter (212 lbs). So, I don't understand why some knock Alex for being thin yet want to promote McPherson.

Thirdly, picking Alex Smith will depend on how much of a drop off Nick Saban feels there is from him to the QBs we could be targeting in the third round area. Quarterbacks like Adrian McPherson, David Greene, and perhaps Andrew Walter. If that drop off is greater than the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to players like Vernand Morency, Frank Gore, and Kay Jay Harris, then you may see Nick go for Alex Smith and then pick up one of those backs.

However, if Nick feels the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to Vernand Morency is greater than the dropoff from Alex Smith to David Greene, then I believe you will see Nick go with Ronnie Brown and then grab David Greene.
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You put the nail on the head KB. Couldn't have said it any better.
 
You cannot draft a player because "well, if I draft Brown here, I can draft Greene in the 3rd". Its ******ed. Greene might not be there. Then what? Every time you have a pick you must consider offers to trade and if that is not available, you take the best player. Period. No consideration will be given by Nick Saban as to prognostications of who might be around in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and beyond.
 
Ghetti13 said:
You cannot draft a player because "well, if I draft Brown here, I can draft Greene in the 3rd". Its ******ed. Greene might not be there. Then what? Every time you have a pick you must consider offers to trade and if that is not available, you take the best player. Period. No consideration will be given by Nick Saban as to prognostications of who might be around in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and beyond.
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Dude, chill! I think you're oversimplifying things. It's all about value when it comes to the #2 pick. If you can get a good, all around runningback at the #2 and possibly a decent QB you can develop in the 3-5 rounds, you do it. If you can get a project QB who may take a few years to develop at #2 and then have to take the bottom of the barrel for RBs in the 3rd (Gore/bad knees, Harris/Older Rook, Houston/Injury history), you'd be foolish IMO.

The way I look at it is in scenario 1, you have 1 question mark and one almost sure-thing (although nothing is a sure thing). In scenario 2 you have two question marks. Will the QB develop and contribute and when? And, will the RB (or whatever) be a contributor to the team at all?

It's all about value and it's nothing close to the boneheaded thinking of Wanny.
 
What you are discribing is the same thing as drafting for need, and intern, hurting your team. Lets say you are considering two players. A RB and a QB. It is my opinion that you take the player who you have graded higher, regardless of what MIGHT be available later in the round. That means if Ronnie Brown will have more value to your organization, you take him. If Alex Smith will have more value to your organization, you take him. The draft is too unpredictable to pass on a better player because you think you will be able to land a good player at the better player's position later in the draft.

That is the essence of reaching. That is the type of draft philosophy that keeps bad teams bad.
 
At the 2nd pick of the draft you can usally pick BPA and need in the same
pick.
 
Ghetti13 said:
What you are discribing is the same thing as drafting for need, and intern, hurting your team. Lets say you are considering two players. A RB and a QB. It is my opinion that you take the player who you have graded higher, regardless of what MIGHT be available later in the round. That means if Ronnie Brown will have more value to your organization, you take him. If Alex Smith will have more value to your organization, you take him. The draft is too unpredictable to pass on a better player because you think you will be able to land a good player at the better player's position later in the draft.

That is the essence of reaching. That is the type of draft philosophy that keeps bad teams bad.
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I understand your point and I agree. When picking #2, you have to pick the highest graded player regardless of need. I just don't think that Smith should be rated higher than Brown or Edwards or Williams. And if they were all equal (Smith included), you'd have to look at the value of those positions later in the draft. Sort of a tie breaker. Know what I mean? That's the only way I could justify what KB said. That's the point I agreed with him about. I saw it in that respect...
 
The more I see film on Smith and Rodgers, the more I like Smith. Rodgers does seem more mechanical and throwing the ball doesn't seem natural IMO. Smith seems to have a good grasp of the ball (big hands). He looks natural throwing the ball. If we drafted Smith I wouldn't be dissapointed.

There is something about Brown that says bust! I don't know what it is, gut feeling. But my guts have sh$t for brains. :rolleyes:
 
You are making an assumption in your argument. That being that Smith, Brown and Edwards are graded equally. Now, for arguments sake I will indulge this. If that is the case, and they are all graded equally, then yes, I would take into account the impact players that may or may not be available later in the draft.

However, I would strongly argue that players possible availability later in the draft will have no effect on how he sets his board. And, if it does, then he is not the GM I thought he was.
 
Your post title puts it perfectly. Drafting Smith MIGHT be the best thing to do. There are just too many ifs involved. In order to draft a project with the second pick of the draft and invest the future of the franchise in him you better know for sure that he will pan out. Saban would be putting his job on the line as well.

Its just so much easier to draft a running back that performs on the next level. Physically we know that Ronnie Brown or Benson can perform....both may turn out to be more atheletes than football players but they will give you something. With Smith you just have no clue.
 
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