Undrafted players :)
Cam Wake By The Numbers
- Thread starter So Be
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You realize the pool of undrafted players is exponentially larger than that of someone in, say, the seventh round. Still doesn't change the fact that the probability of those players becoming anything worthwhile is very low.
Expecting anything from seventh round picks is a fools game. If it happens, that's great, but they're needles in haystacks. Again I think this is pretty elementary, and I'll assume you just feel like being a contrarian today.
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
How awesome would it be for Wake to have the year of his career and be the main story of the SB bye-week? With our schedule, a little luck and the year of Tannehill's life 13 or 14 wins is possible. And if we get home-field advantage in the playoffs Miami will be a tough place to play for cold weather teams in January. I'm saying there is a chance.
So Be
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How is that true? Each and every player who become an undrafted FA is available in the 7th round. I am not getting what you are saying.
So? Bigger pool doesn't equal bigger expectations or higher rate of success. They could have been drafted in the 7th but nobody felt like they were worthy. In both cases these guys fell through the cracks.
Nobody is saying it is statistically likely it seems like you are arguing a different point then i am same song and dance We've been here before. It can happen and you can't just dismiss him which is all I'm saying. And like i said our coaching staff has been good at developing DL talent
Well, yes it does. Bigger pool absolutely means higher probability of finding successful players. Ipso facto, you'll find more cases of productive players who were undrafted, then picking a given round like the sixth or seventh. That's just math. I don't know where you gleamed that one should expect anymore from a particular undrafted player than a lowly drafted one, just that by sheer volume they (as a group) have higher odds of finding success. That was just my preemptive strike to what I thought was going to be a list of undrafted players who panned out, offering that as proof that it isn't so unlikely, when it very much is.
So while not impossible, I do think it's unlikely enough that I feel very comfortable dismissing it as a realistic option.
Percentage wise you won't see a higher percentage...
I hope he retires a Phin
I didn't say you would?
I mean, defining success is somewhat arbitrary, but it's pretty obvious that even if you only find one "successful" seventh round pick in a given year, that 1/32 is going to be a better percentage than finding four or five of those such players in an undrafted pool of 600+ undrafted FA's.
Higher rate of success to me means higher probability. I.e. higher percentage am i wrong?
fininpsl
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I could see completely discount Fede if this was his rookie year. He already made some plays last year, and is getting strong reviews from both coaches and reporters from what he's done in camp work so far this year. I don't see anything wrong with considering him in the long term plan at DE. Sure he might fall on his face, but that could happen to even Vernon.
As for Wake, I'm with those who'd like to see him retire a Fin. Lots of people want to trim cap money with him. But he is going to be AT LEAST worth his contract the next two years in all likelihood as hard a worker as he is. We might be able to talk his camp into extending and lower the cap hit, and again with his work ethic and limited injury history I think it would behoove the Fins to do so at the end of 2015, and lock the guy up until it's time for him to retire.
As for Wake, I'm with those who'd like to see him retire a Fin. Lots of people want to trim cap money with him. But he is going to be AT LEAST worth his contract the next two years in all likelihood as hard a worker as he is. We might be able to talk his camp into extending and lower the cap hit, and again with his work ethic and limited injury history I think it would behoove the Fins to do so at the end of 2015, and lock the guy up until it's time for him to retire.
When you get a year of info after their rookie year, you can begin to filter out the absolute hopeless case from the we might have something here... Fede was a rookie last year, and is still on the team as of now and drawing praises from his coaches... So right there, his odds just went up... Is he a sure shot nope... But his odds are better than this years class of 7th and UDFAs...
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