Chad Henne vs. Ryan Tannehill: A Scary Thought? | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Chad Henne vs. Ryan Tannehill: A Scary Thought?

shouright said:
It's relevant to determining the board's ability to accurately assess the likelihood of the long-term success of a Dolphins QB based on its members' "vision" alone.
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shouright said:
I'm perfectly fine saying we can make no conclusions about him right now. What I'm not fine with is saying his future franchise QB status is a done deal, and we know that for certain based on present "eyesight" alone.
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You state the facts right here clearly, vision alone is no more a representation than stats alone in determining the likely hood of Tannehill become a "great" QB. You cannot rely on one without the other in this short sample size, if you want to use stats alone on a guy like Brady, Manning or Bress who has a well established body of work so be it but in the case here you must use all available sources of data.

The eye ball test, while subjective, is just as valid as "pure data" at this point and in fact if you blend the two with objectivity you will find the likelihood of Tannehill to become a "great" QB can only be subjective at this point.

Stand on whatever side of the fence you wish but at this point you have no idea where the fence even is retaliative to all other QB measurable over a career but there has got to be consensus that Tannehill has a greater potential to become a "great" QB than a guy like Henne who is a career is a backup at best.
 
Chad Henne started four years in college. Tannehill just nineteen starts I believe. Before Monday night he looked he looked to be improving each game. We just need to be patient. He'll come around.
 
NY8123 said:
You state the facts right here clearly, vision alone is no more a representation than stats alone in determining the likely hood of Tannehill become a "great" QB. You cannot rely on one without the other in this short sample size, if you want to use stats alone on a guy like Brady, Manning or Bress who has a well established body of work so be it but in the case here you must use all available sources of data.

The eye ball test, while subjective, is just as valid as "pure data" at this point and in fact if you blend the two with objectivity you will find the likelihood of Tannehill to become a "great" QB can only be subjective at this point.

Stand on whatever side of the fence you wish but at this point you have no idea where the fence even is retaliative to all other QB measurable over a career but there has got to be consensus that Tannehill has a greater potential to become a "great" QB than a guy like Henne who is a career is a backup at best.
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I have lots of trouble believing that the "eyeball test," when administered by a group of people who want to see one thing (their favorite football team's quarterback's success) and don't want to see another thing (his failure), is as good as objective data.

Do you really think our "eyeball tests," as we apply them to the Miami Dolphins, are free from bias?
 
gafin said:
Chad Henne started four years in college. Tannehill just nineteen starts I believe. Before Monday night he looked he looked to be improving each game. We just need to be patient. He'll come around.
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Henne also got the advantage of sitting and learning behind Chad penny for over a year before being asked to start a game and had a much better running game and dare i say OL.
Give Ryan a couple years like Henne and if there is no progress we can have this discussion again. For now he's our guy and I'm glad we have him.
 
Seriously, can you stop trying to make WPA happen? It's like a fat dude wearing skinny jeans, just doesn't fit.
 
Chad henne looked good at first, and I certainly bought in. Anyone remember that Monday night game v the Jets when he led the winning drive with 2 minutes to go? Thing of beauty..

Difference between RT and Henne is RT has touch, is athletic. Henne had as strong or a stronger arm, was statuesque, slightly better pocket awareness, but his long wind up and inability to add touch to throws doomed him. Henne wasn't garbage, he's just a backup quality qb.
 
ATT
COMP
YARDS
COMP%
YPA
TDs
INTs
QBR
John Elway First 16 Games
 354
175
2266
49.44
6.40
10
19
57.00
Ryan Tannehill 2012
484
282
3294
58.3
6.81
12
13
76.1
John Elway (Games 17-20)
131
53
598
58.24
6.57
3
3
75.3
Ryan Tannehill 2013 (First 4 Games)
142
93
1076
65.5
7.58
5
5
85.3

Well it's settled then. The first 20 games of a QB's career is definitely a large enough sample size to determine his future performance :rolleyes2: Is Tannehill going to reach an Elway HOF level? Most likely not, but he's also very unlikely to be Chad Henne 2.0 either. With only a 20 game sample size we can cherry pick data all day long to find stats and comps and frame them in a way that fits whatever argument one wants to make. The only thing I take out of the Tannehill's first 20 games as definitive is that he needs to continue to improve.
 
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shouright said:
I'll just leave it at this and open it up for comment:


ATT
COMP
YARDS
COMP%
YPA
TDs
INTs
QBR
Chad Henne 2009
 451
274
2878
60.8
6.38
12
14
75.2
Ryan Tannehill 2012
484
282
3294
58.3
6.81
12
13
76.1
Chad Henne 2010 (First 4 Games)
131
84
964
64.1
7.36
5
4
86.2
Ryan Tannehill 2013 (First 4 Games)
142
93
1076
65.5
7.58
5
5
85.3
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Part of me hopes that you are being provocative and not serious with this comparison in this format. Of course, another part of me is wondering if you are serious why you would just jerk everyone's chain and get them started down the "Why statistics suck" road. This is one of the reasons why you not only display the summary data but also the individual points (in a series of charts if possible). Showing summary statistics without allowing for extraordinary points implies that the statistics represent typical performance. We all know Tannehill's last game was not representative of his first three.
 
If you "watch" football, the upside RT brings is blatantly obvious over what Henne possessed or possesses. For starters Henne had zero ability to put any touch on his ball. I heard Jon Grudden say of him "He can throw it a 100 miles an hour thru a tire, but can't get it anywhere near a bucket". When we had Brandon Marshall they gave up on the fade route in the corner of the end-zone because Henne simply could not make the pass........it's a throw it up and let your bigger stronger WR go up in get it pass. We had one of the games strongest WR in the leauge on the roster and they simply had to take that play out of the playbook because the QB could not make the passs in practice! The pass you saw RT drop right into Sims paw for the game winner a couple weeks ago is a pass Henne could not make. And oh yeah RT can actually move around.....almost forgot about that

Point is is I could write 20+ other things that makes RT better. Sometime it's more about what your eye sees then what a small sampling stat shows. Thanks though it is an interesting stat to bring some debate to the site.
 
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