ckparrothead
Premium Member
Here's a mock draft. NOW GO SIT ON IT AND SPIN, MEL KIPER!!
1. Houston Texans - RB Reggie Bush, USC
Come on, we all saw this coming. After the Rose Bowl there was some hype that caused me to forget myself and think the Texans would take Vince due to the hometown hero thing, but the writing on the wall soon became painfully clear. Every HC candidate they interviewed was asked how they would utilize Reggie Bush. Bob McNair told Pete Carroll that Reggie is their man. Now they exercise the $8 million option on Carr's contract. Yet, somehow they still try to insist they are keeping there options open. PFFFT. Just start negotiating Reggie's contract now. Give him a playbook, a uniform, everything.
2. New Orleans Saints - QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Ohhhhh snap! No he didn't! No he didn't! He went there girlfriend, he went there. I admit, this is more out of shock value than anything else. It matters not to me whether Cutler goes to New Orleans and Leinart to Tennessee, or Leinart to New Orleans and Cutler to Tennessee. The bottom line is both QBs are gone by pick #4. The hype on Cutler is very real and so are his physical skills. Leinart's situation is a lot like Peyton Manning's was coming out: a body of work that speaks for itself but so much time at the top everyone loves to take shots at him until he falls. It took some real discipline by Bill Polian to stick to his guns and take Peyton. This time around, I am not sure New Orleans displays that discipline, not to mention Reggie Bush has put a shot across his teammate's bow by passing him on the draft boards. Reggie destabilized Leinart's value, and scouts are finding all kinds of ways to criticize him now. This includes the latest fashionable criticism that he has a poor attitude.
3. Tennessee Titans - QB Matt Leinart, USC
Surprisingly, I really don't think the Titans will be as excited about getting Leinart instead of Young or Cutler as everyone thinks. I think they would take Leinart over Young, for sure. But they MIGHT have taken Cutler over Leinart, if they had the choice (which they won't). Then again, I'm also envisioning this maniacal genius scheme to give weight to the whole "Cutler is the best QB in the draft" school of thought by showing open interest in Cutler at #3, which augments his hype until it induces New Orleans (not known for their football brains) to take Cutler instead of Leinart, leaving Chow reunited with the QB that made his offense run like a japanese car. Genius! It is a semi-plausible theory. The single biggest factor that brought Phil Rivers to a #4 pick in the draft was not his Senior Bowl, but the Chargers being openly enamored with him even though they pick #1 overall. I really do think, however, that the Titans see another Carson Palmer when they look at hometown Nashville hero Jay Cutler. Matt Leinart would be a great consolation prize for them. Onward Honda Civic offense, onward.
4. NY Jets - LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
I get the feeling they'd love to trade out of here. But, I hate mock drafts that project trades. They're sort of like grammy predictions that have Billy Ray Cyrus making a comeback and winning one for the mullet. Thin. Real thin. If the Jets stay here, they will take NY native Ferguson because when you get down to it, he's probably the best player in the entire draft. They may already have a QB by the time they take Brick (Rivers), too. Even if they don't, I think they take Brick over Vince. Ferguson is the best pass protecting tackle prospect I can ever remember. He truly belongs in the same draft class with Boselli, Ogden, and Pace. Then again, wasn't Tony Mandrich in that class? LOL.
5. Green Bay Packers - DE Mario Williams, NC State
By the time the Combine is over I have a strong feeling Mario Williams will come out with a Julius Peppers type reputation. Instead of betting here which player the Pack will take based on some obscure needs, I'm going to bet on which player I think is going to look like the golden goose when they are picking at #5. Someone with an NFL agent buddy that was hoping to end up Mario's agent told me to expect Mario to put up some sick workout numbers. Having seen him on the field, I can believe it. If that proves to be true, Mario could shoot up my own personal board to the true Julius Peppers of this draft, where I would value him the #2 player in the draft. I am sure the Pack likes AJ Hawk, but Combine numbers do not provide the kind of upside for a linebacker like Hawk where much about him is already known, as with a DE like Williams where much about him is not known. Plus, pass rusher is always considered a higher priority position than linebacker.
6. Oakland Raiders - LB AJ Hawk, Ohio State
Could the Raiders take Vince Young? Name me the last time the Raiders took a QB with a pick in the top 20 of the first round, or the last time they went to the playoffs with a QB under 30 years old. It's just not an Al Davis maneuver. He's opposed to drafting first round QBs, and they feel they got their man last year in the 3rd round in Andrew Walter, a big tall guy that has a deep arm. Also, Vince does not seem like the kind of QB that would maximize the value of Jerry Porter (signed long term), Randy Moss (signed long term), Doug Gabriel, and Ronald Curry. A running QB cuts down on the number of passing plays to feed them. That's like feeding all six Brady Bunch kids breakfast out of one bowl of cereal. I'm going with my gut. My gut says AJ Hawk, with all his attitude and ferocity feeding into the Raiders fans' attitude and ferocity. By the way, doesn't the #6 pick get decided by coin flip? So why does everyone and their sister have the Raiders picking #6? Are coin flips that predictable nowadays?
7. San Francisco 49ers - LB Chad Greenway, Iowa
Credit goes to my colleague Boomer on this one. The 49ers do seem to love what Greenway brings to the table. He's big, he can play outside, he is savvy as all heck, a leader, high attitude/character, he's gifted in coverage, and he can make big tackles. He's not the pass rusher type, but I believe they have Andre Carter for that. I wanted to go with DeAngelo Williams here at one point, but I think Nolan gave himself away a bit when he shot down rumors of Ricky Williams to San Francisco by talking about what a great RB situation they have with Barlow, Gore, and Hicks. I agree with him, mostly about Gore. Third round pick Gore stayed healthy and grabbed 608 yards on only 127 carries. He really showed some promise this season. He may not be durable enough to carry things himself but they have Barlow and Hicks to help with that. With a crappy offensive line and zero passing game this season, Barlow, Hicks, and Gore rushed only 150 yards shy of the total that Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown put up. You don't hear anyone suggesting Miami use a top pick on a "franchise" running back to replace our multi-RB backfield. I think the 49ers could seriously go for Vernon Davis here, because Eric Johnson appears to be out the door, and a young QB's best friend is always a good Tight End. The 49ers really need line help but will not reach for Winston Justice at #7 overall. On the bright side if they win the coin flip with the Raiders, they get AJ Hawk.
8. Buffalo Bills - DT Haloti Ngata, Oregon
The last time Dick Jauron was a head coach up in Chicago, correct me if I am mistaken but didn't he acquire Ted Washington and Keith Traylor (two nose tackles if ever I saw one) to play side by side in the middle of the defense? I think this helps to explain why this pick has been considered so terribly predictable by every mock draft thus far. Jauron wants big bodies in the middle and if Sam Adams leaves, the Bills have none. Look for them to try and keep Adams, and to put Haloti Ngata right next to him so that they can both be lazy boulders together. They could also use offensive line, but again Winston Justice could be a reach at this spot and the Bills got burned on a top 10 pick on Mike Williams. If Nate Clements leaves as a free agent, they could go with Michael Huff, Jimmy Williams, or even Antonio Cromartie at this spot.
9. Detroit Lions - CB/S Michael Huff, Texas
At this pick I am wrestling between TE Vernon Davis and CB/S Michael Huff. In the end, I think they stop overstocking the offense and start helping out the defense a little more. R.W. McQuarters had a surprising good year but is still getting up there in age, and Jon McGraw is not exactly the show stopper that convinces you to stay away from Huff. The last time they drafted a Longhorn, they came out pretty good with Roy Williams. There is not a 4-3 linebacker or an offensive tackle here worthy of temptation, and their defensive line is stocked with investment. This should make Huff the easy pick, although Vernon Davis holds the potential for a lot of upside from his workout numbers. He is a workout warrior and could run a 4.4 and put up the 225 pound bar enough to make Millen's jaw drop, but Marinelli will probably be asking for Huff or Demeco Ryans. He'll get Huff. Mike Martz would probably skip town immediately and de-list his phone number if Millen drafted Vince Young.
10. Arizona Cardinals - RB LenDale N. Glendale, USC
The interesting part about this selection is not that Denny Green will pass on a maligned black quarterback that many consider to be the most talented player in the draft, but rather that upon announcement of the Cardinals' selection, Snoop Dogg will announce a shrewd marketing maneuver to change his client's full legal name from LenDale White to LenDale Nizzle Glendale, or 'LenDale N. Glendale'. At this point the Cardinals could use some offensive line and running back help, but with Ferguson gone they won't be able to hide their woody for LenDale Nizzle. The Cards have spent too many resources pumping their receivers group full of talent to go with a running quarterback that cuts down on the number of thrown passes. Fo' shizzle, dizzle.
11. St. Louis Rams - QB Vince Young, Texas
I will make this one easy on Dolphin fans, some of which would excorporate a brick if I had the Dolphins taking Vince Young, and some of which would light city hall on fire if I had the Dolphins passing on Vince Young. The Dolphins were rumored to be interested in Young before Linehan's departure. Scott Linehan has shown a clear preference in his time for quarterbacks that can run and have strong arms, or rather should I say he has shown a clear preference pattern to NOT go for quarterbacks that have weak arms or that cannot run a lick. Even Gus Frerotte has great pocket awareness. I do not think Marc Bulger and Scott Linehan go well together because of Bulger's lack of arm strength and mobility. Vince Young falling out of the top 10 would be excuse enough for Scott to get his quarterback of the future. Linehan favors the shotgun formation heavily, and that lends itself extremely well to Vince Young's game. Of any offense in the NFL, Scott Linehan's shares the most resemblance to the kind of gimmicky offenses you see in college. Vince Young is a challenge I feel Scott Linehan is up for, and I find a high probability that Young will become a Ram if snubbed by the Titans.
12. Cleveland Browns - RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis State
This is one of those picks I will end up regretting. But the truth of the matter is DeAngelo probably should not fall this far. People say the Browns have three running backs, but the truth is they have none. Lee Suggs, William Green, and Reuben Droughns are all not worth a starting job. Despite Droughns' surprising season, they still fielded one of the worst ground games in the NFL last season, and that isn't the way to help a young quarterback. I would have them taking Vernon Davis here but they got burned by Kellen Winslow too bad to go that route. I would have them taking Gabe Watson or Manny Lawson as cogs in Crennel's 3-4 defense, but their defense was significantly better than their offense last year, and I think DeAngelo becomes a value call. I have an inexplicable feeling that Phil Savage will like DeAngelo Williams.
13. Baltimore Ravens - OT Winston Justice, USC
The Ravens are a mess everywhere and that means one thing: back to the basics, block and tackle. Jimmy Williams will tempt the Ravens as a possible replacement for soon-to-be free agent departure Will Demps. They are rumored to be shopping Chris McAlister and/or Ray Lewis in trade, and if either leaves that could put them in line for a corner like Williams or Antonio Cromartie, or even a linebacker like Demeco Ryans. They have enough DE/LB types so Manny Lawson will not be a consideration. They are high on Tye Hill, but hope he falls to the second round on size concerns. They have not been sound on the offensive line; Tony Pashos and Zeus Brown do not constitute a solid right tackle position. The Ravens need to get back to the days when they could out-block and out-tackle everyone. The rest will fall into line once they can do that.
14. Philadelphia Eagles - LB Demeco Ryans, Alabama
I still think Santonio Holmes just does not grade this high. If there was a dominant receiver here, they would take him, but Santonio Holmes is not a dominant receiver prospect. In Demeco Ryans the Eagles will have a guy who can man the same spot in Jim Johnson's defense taken up by William Thomas what seems like ages ago, and Nate Wayne and Keith Adams in more recent memory. Ryans is a versatile weak side candidate that can cover, tackle, and rush the quarterback as long as he does not have a whole lot of big bodies getting their hands all over him. He has excellent instincts. The Eagles' biggest problems in 2005 were that they were too inconsistent on defense both pressuring the passer and in stopping the run. They like Mike Patterson enough to stick with him, even though as a rookie he was not the same player Corey Simon was for them. Tamba Hali will be a very strong consideration at this spot, as will Manny Lawson. Jerome McDougle is an X factor though. If he has recovered and has been sound enough in rehab to make the staff comfortable with counting on him, they will shy away from a DE and toward Ryans to help them establish better versatility and dominance.
15. Atlanta Falcons - CB Antonio Cromartie, FSU
I do not think it has been much of a secret that the Falcons would love to find someone who can play opposite DeAngelo Hall, and Cromartie would give the Falcons quite possibly the fastest starting tandem of corners in the NFL. Eventually, they could be the best corner tandem in the NFL as well. Nick Saban always says that your talent at the corner position dictates the kinds of things you can do on defense, and having Cromartie and Hall together will allow the Falcons to do anything their hearts desire. If Gabe Watson finds a way to climb up the boards as I believe he will, he could be a consideration here, but Cromartie's potential workout numbers could have him soaring even higher than this pick. If the Falcons do not keep Dunn, and DeAngelo Williams slips past the Browns, the Falcons will probably take DeAngelo.
16. Miami Dolphins - DT Gabe Watson, Michigan
Jay Cutler off the board. Vince Young off the board. Michael Huff, Chad Greenway, Winston Justice, Haloti Ngata, and Antonio Cromartie all off the board. All is right with the world, and hell is still hot. I can honestly say that Gabe Watson is the most talented player left on the board here. He is a planet on the interior of the defensive line, a fast-moving one at that. He is ridiculously athletic and once upon a time he was a 5-star elite tackle prospect coming out of high school. He is a genuinely high character guy, and if Nick looks to add anti-christs like Terrell Owens to the locker room chemistry, you might as well add the mother theresa Gabe Watson on the other side to try and balance the team's karma. Watson has given away both his bowl rings, one to his dad and another to a little kid that loves Michigan football, and the only plan he has in place to spend his money is to start a company that helps underprivileged kids. At the Senior Bowl he was so ridiculously dominant against a North OL that featured high grade interior prospects like Davin Joseph, Charles Spencer, and Nick Mangold, that the coaches actually had to take Gabe out of practice so that the line could get in some 'constructive' work. Watson could replace Keith Traylor immediately, or more likely serve as his backup until he is in the full NFL shape Saban demands, and is ready to take the training pants off. This would virtually mirror the Patriots' handling of Vince Wilfork two years ago. Drafting Watson would help move Manuel Wright back to his more natural under tackle position, where he could be a force with his natural pass rushing skills.
17. Minnesota Vikings - TE Vernon Davis, Maryland
It is Vernon's bad luck that there are some teams picking right around where he should go in the draft that have high quality tight ends locked up long term (Atlanta, Philly, Baltimore, and Miami). Minnesota will make him theirs if he is available. Randy Moss leaves Minnesota and surprise surprise, they don't have enough reliable weapons on offense to bail out the quarterback. Is Jermaine Wiggins the real deal, or did Scott Linehan help him get where he got by opening the middle of the field wide with the deep passing game to Moss? Moss is not there now, and they've got young grooming receiving talent that they might not want to replace yet. The way to help Brad Johnson and Daunte Culpepper will be either a runner or a tight end. They could go with backyard runner Lawrence Maroney here, especially if Davis is off the board, but with Davis there I think they go with the smart valuation call. Brad Childress made great use of athletic tight end LJ Smith in Philadelphia, and Chad Lewis before him.
18. Dallas Cowboys - WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
Last year the Cowboys really laid down some excellent groundwork on the defense with the free agent acquisition of Anthony Henry, as well as the drafting of Chris Canty, Marcus Spears, Kevin Burnett, and Demarcus Ware. Greg Ellis and La'Roi Glover are still on the squad, as are Terrance Newman and Roy Williams. The Boys still have hopes for Drew Henson at QB, and this should definitely be considered too high for Brodie Croyle. Max Jean-Gilles should be a consideration here, as would be Marcus McNeil (depending on how his back grades out medically), because the Boys need some help up front. But their receivers group, featuring Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn, is looking a little long in the tooth. Some investment is definitely in order, since it generally takes two or three years to fully polish up a replacement for a current starter at the WR position. Santonio has the kind of speed that the Cowboys had in mind when they acquired Peerless Price (who will be a free agent), so he could contribute immediately as a deep burner. There are line prospects to be had in the 2nd and 3rd round. There aren't many receivers in this draft with the speed and savvy of Holmes. Jimmy Williams will pop up on their radar screen if he makes it this far, but the present of Roy Williams, Anthony Henry, and Terrance Newman may scare the Boys away from overinvestment in the defensive backfield.
19. San Diego Chargers - CB/S Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
The Chargers have not drafted a defensive back since they drafted Sammy Davis, Drayton Florence, and Terrance Kiel back in 2003. Davis and Florence have been forgettable, while Quentin Jammer looks like a keeper. For the second year in a row, the Chargers' secondary has been unable to stop the pass. It is high time to stem the tide by selecting Williams, if he makes it to their pick. AJ Smith would hype the holy heck out of this selection as managing to get a top 10 pick at pick #19, but the truth of the matter is Jimmy Williams is a little too much of a safety/corner tweener to make teams in the top 15 fully comfortable with him compared to other more talented players like Michael Huff and Antonio Cromartie. He does not show the hips to make him a sure fire corner prospect, and does not show the instincts to be the same kind of game changing safety as Michael Huff. The Chargers will put Jimmy at corner and work him into that position, and eventually he will be a good asset to have guarding against tall guys like Randy Moss and Ashley Lelie, and even a tight end like Tony Gonzales. The Chargers have to also be thinking about offensive line at this spot, but as of yet I am not comfortable putting McNeil here until I know more about the medical condition in his back. The Chargers appear openly enamored with every LB/DE prospect out there, so Manny Lawson will be a big consideration.
20. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Broderick Bunkley, FSU
The Chiefs have a very poor receivers group, especially with Boerigter being an unrestricted free agent, so I would not be surprised if they used this selection on Santonio Holmes, were he to make it to their spot. The next best receivers, Chad Jackson or Sinorice Moss depending on who you talk to, might not be worthy of this high a selection. The receivers group is so bad, however, that they will likely focus their free agency efforts to fix the position right away. Meanwhile, Lionel Dalton is a free agent and both Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii appear to be somewhat of a bust. The line suffered from a lack of genuine pass rush, but Jared Allen individually has shown promise at the right end spot. The Chiefs could go for Tamba Hali here, or Ko Simpson to add some athleticism to the secondary. I doubt they would go for a corner to apply help directly to the poor pass defense. They were a good offensive team in 2005 that forced teams into a lot of passing to try and come back from leads. They managed a mediocre interception count, and generally kept everything in front of them with a highly respectable yards per attempt. However, their low sack count speaks volumes of their third down defense and ability to put games away. You could fix the pass rush from the outside in, with a Tamba Hali to replace Eric Hicks, or you could fix it from the inside out with Broderick Bunkley to apply genuine pressure from the middle and collapse the pocket so that Jared Allen and their linebackers can collect the easy sacks. The Chiefs should prefer the latter, but there is no telling what they will end up doing.
21. New England Patriots - DE/OLB Manny Lawson, NC State
A lot of folks have New England selecting Lawrence Maroney or another running back here, but I am not sure that I am convinced yet. Belichick has not taken or used this high a pick on a running back since the "Touchdown" Tommy Vardell disaster in which he ignored the advice of his friend and defensive coordinator Nick Saban, choosing "Touchdown" Tommy over cornerback Dale Carter. Lawrence Maroney will make a good selection for some team but I could see Belichick being leery of a back that comes from a system with a history of making lesser talented players look better than they actually are with their zone stretch blocking scheme (the same made famous by Alex Gibbs with the Broncos and Falcons). Belichick will also be leery of putting a player next to Tom Brady that is not considered to be versatile enough to keep defenders from killing Tom or to provide a dangerous outlet for Tom's checkdowns. If push came to shove, Bill would probably take the less exciting Joseph Addai over Maroney, especially given his history with Nick Saban's LSU players. Manny Lawson has a little Rosevelt Colvin in him, and a little Willie McGinest in him. He could be an effective undersized pass rushing specialist RDE in a 4-3 alignment, but he could also be a gifted open end or outside linebacker in the 3-4. He has the athleticism to play the position, and flashed a few skills in space during special teams drills at the Senior Bowl. His workout numbers should be on the Shawne Merriman ridiculous end (rumored sub-4.60 forty with a 46 inch vertical) but his tweener nature and lack of experience at LB may shy teams in the top 15 away from him, unlike Merriman. The Patriots will take that kind of raw Jason Taylor athlete and groom him for a year behind McGinest, who is a little too old to go on playing much beyond 2006.
22. Denver Broncos - DE Tamba Hali, Penn State
The Broncos get kudos for coming up boxcars on Gerard Warren, but their gamble on Courtney Brown did not pay off nearly as well. The Broncos are a team that is itching for high investment in a wide receiver or a tight end, but there is not one available that makes sense here. This would be too high for Leonard Pope, and with such a deep class of tight ends (the best in many years), the Broncos have to be thinking they could get a good tight end later. At receiver, Chad Jackson, Maurice Stovall, and Sinorice Moss do not belong this high. With Mike Anderson aged to a ripe 33 years old, Tatum Bell never showing an ability to handle a feature back load, and third round investment Maurice Clarett getting himself cut, the team needs a low-cost runner and is exploring the possibility of trading for Ricky Williams. Lawrence Maroney, coming from virtually the same ground-based offense in Minnesota as Denver, has to look very attractive to the Broncos, but likely not at pick #22. With Tamba Hali falling due to his not being overly big for a 3-4 end, and not being overly fast for a 4-3 end or 3-4 linebacker, the Broncos would not be able to resist him at this spot. If they do not trade for Ricky Williams, they can get another runner later, as they have done many times before.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Marcus McNeil, Auburn
It is entirely possible that Jon Gruden made up his mind about this pick last year when he selected Cadillac Williams with the #5 pick. McNeil is a natural left tackle and the bottom line statistics on him are amazing. He has not let up a single sack as a tackle. He let one up a few years ago as a guard. The Bucs had bad problems at left tackle. Fielding Anthony Davis at left tackle is not the way to allow a young quarterback like Simms to blossom. Gruden will know that McNeil can run block, because he has seen all the tape run blocking for Cadillac. Receivers do not excite Gruden. Big play linebackers and fast defensive backs do not excite him. The guys up front excite him. His dreams are full of tackles and guards turning out their 3-technique or 5-technique defenders just right, to pop Cadillac open for a big run play. McNeil could grade out higher than this, depending on his medical examinations at the Combine. Whispers among scouts are that he has back problems. If the Buccaneers satisfy themselves medically, they will take him if he is there at #23.
24. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Mathias Kiwanuku, Boston College
The Bengals are not in an enviable position with such a bad injury to budding star quarterback Carson Palmer. To keep their champagne wishes and caviar dreams alive until Carson can come back, they will need to play Marvin Lewis defense. That should start up front, where Bryan Robinson and clearly is not the kind of effective interior player that Lewis will want. Since John Thornton is an effective player, they may attempt to fill at spot in free agency. Even so, the Bengals will be taking hard looks at players like Gabe Watson, Broderick Bunkley, and Rodrique Wright. I have Bunkley and Watson already gone, but if either gets passed up, Lewis will want one of them. Kiwanuku got a bad rap at the Senior Bowl week because coached pitted him against D'Brickashaw Ferguson the entire week. Their individual battles were tremendous, but Ferguson ended up winning them consistently. The unfortunate part for Mathias is that he is actually a gifted defensive end, he just happened to draw the next Lomas Brown during Senior Bowl week. Mathias can play right end, and is versatile against the run or pass. If Claude Wroten manages to tap dance his way into a clear reputation after his recent arrest that involved the cops finding multiple bags of marijuana and charging him with intent to sell, the Bengals may be induced to take him as he would be optimal to replace Robinson. It is hard to say whether the Bengals will have a hangover from the recent antics of high character risk guys in Odell Thurman, Chris Henry, and Chad Johnson, or if those guys are endemic of their systematic disregard of character issues (such as with the Broncos).
25. New York Giants - LB Bobby Carpenter, Ohio State
Consensus has the Giants seeking out more corner help after stupidly relying on Terrell Buckley to be the answer to Steve Smith's question in the playoffs. Yet, they did draft Corey Webster in the 2nd round of 2005 and if Nick Saban is to be believed, he is a very gifted corner. He played relatively well as a rookie. If they get rid of Will Peterson, a high round rookie corner is not going to be the answer to their problems; free agency would be a much better and more appropriate answer. The Giants had some problems in their linebackers group exposed, especially when Antonio Pierce got injured toward the end of the season. In a town use to having guys like Lawrence Taylor, Harry Carson, Pepper Johnson, and Jesse Armstead...Tom Coughlin is fielding the likes of Reggie Torbor, Nick Greisen, Chase Blackburn, and Barret Green. The position is screaming for high investment, and rookies can make an impact at the position, which should satisfy Coughlin's win now tendencies. Coughlin has also shown a disturbing tendency to highly value the same players that the Miami Dolphins and Nick Saban highly value.
26. Chicago Bears - OG Max Jean-Gilles, Georgia
While the Bears genuinely need help on the offensive line, on offense they are generally playing the waiting game, waiting for prospects like Rex Grossman and Mark Bradley to lead them to the promised land. Your instinct with a defense as good as the Bears' defense is to leave them alone. In the meantime, until they are ready to start over from scratch on offense, they win with good defense and a ground game. I have them taking Max Jean-Gilles here to keep the offensive line strong, but do not be surprised if they go with defense, since an inconsistent waist bender like Jon Scott probably will not be worthy of the #26 pick and some coaches feel strongly about not taking interior OL with a first round pick. Jean-Gilles is a giant people mover with very long arms for a guard, and he moves extremely well for his girth. Some look at him and see the next Larry Allen. If the Bears go defense, they could look to corners Jonathon Joseph, Ashton Youboty, or Tye Hill to pick up where free agent Jerry Azumah left off. Ko Simpson could be a strong consideration, even with strong play out of Mike Brown and Mike Green.
27. Carolina Panthers - TE Leonard Pope, Georgia
The Panthers will want to find Brentson Buckner's replacement, and Claude Wroten seems to be a perfect fit here, but he still has legal issue overhang until I start hearing about teams forgiving him for possessing two bags of marijuana when he was pulled over a few days after the Peach Bowl. The charges may have been dropped, but the incident remains. Lucky for Claude, they dropped the charges early enough that he could sneak back into this area with good interviews. In the playoffs, the Panthers lack of weapons outside Steve Smith was completely exposed. That does not make WR an appropriate investment here, however. The Panthers have promising young talent at the receiver position in Drew Carter and Keary Colbert. Not unlike the Bears, this puts the Panthers in the waiting game with their WR development. The Cats also drafted Eric Shelton in the 2nd round and would shy away from replacing him with another draft pick so soon, but that won't scare them away from a free agent like Shaun Alexander. The Panthers need another weapon and one good way to establish some immediate matchup problems over the middle, and to build your arsenal, is grabbing a top rated tight end like Leonard Pope. Pope is versatile as a blocker and a pass catcher, which should satisfy John Fox's balanced tendencies.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Ashton Youboty, Ohio State
It would be funny to see them select yet another overly tall receiver like Maurice Stovall here, but the reality is the Jags need to start finding themselves on the ground again, and Fred Taylor just is not reliable. However, the Jags have been sniffing at Ricky Williams in trade, which means they have first dibs on Ricky assuming equal bids from the Jaguars, Colts, and Broncos (the three teams that have been rumored to be interested thus far). A fiery bidding war over the former pothead is not likely. From a bigger picture standpoint, the interest could just mean they were hoping not to have to use this pick for a running back. The team drafted Scott Starks at the corner position but he looks like a nickel back. The pick here is Youboty, because Kenny Wright is not a guy to hang your hat on and he and Terry Cousin are free agents besides. An X-factor could be Ko Simpson, if the Jags finally part ways with Donovan Darius as they've been rumored to want to over the last few years. Another possibility could be Thomas Howard, who could impress the Jaguars staff with his great workout numbers enough to replace free agent Akin Ayodele.
29. Denver Broncos - RB Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota
The Broncos may trade this pick. This is the second of their two first round picks, which makes it prime for trading. They are the only team in the draft with two first round picks. If they trade this pick to the Miami Dolphins in a trade that involves Ricky Williams, I see the Dolphins selecting South Carolina Safety Ko Simpson. If not, Lawrence Maroney has to look extremely tempting because he is a Minnesota back and Minnesota runs the same kind of zone stretch ground attack that the Broncos run. He is a little bit undersized, like Tatum Bell, but the two of them together could give the Broncos nice insurance for each other in case of injury or ineffectiveness. The important thing to note is Maroney is the back that is most likely to be able to step into the Broncos ground game and have immediate success, which is what the Broncos really want here. If the Broncos passed on Maroney, it would likely be for Maurice Stovall.
30. Indianapolis Colts - CB Tye Hill, Clemson
This pick should be an offensive lineman, but Bill Polian does not have a history of picking up offensive linemen this high. Tye Hill's lack of size (5'9") will not sway the Colts from selecting him for their generally undersized defense. Hill has very long arms for such a short corner, which allow him to mask his height problems and play the ball really well. He was without a doubt the best corner at the Senior Bowl, and stayed in the hip pocket of every receiver he went against. The Colts are the third team seemingly in the running for Ricky Williams. If they do not get him, and the Broncos do not select Lawrence Maroney, the Colts may select him. Bill Polian was at the Minnesota-Virginia bowl game. He claimed he was not scouting Maroney, but there were certainly very few other players the GM himself could have been going out of his way to scout in person. If they want Maroney, they may have to trade up for him, which means they may give a good sniff at Ricky Williams, since their cap situation is such that an expensive free agent runner and keeping WR Reggie Wayne are probably mutually exclusive events. Again, if the Dolphins end up with this pick, Ko Simpson looks to be the best on their board.
31. Seattle Seahawks - WR Chad Jackson, Florida
The Seahawks' off season will rightfully center around who they manage to keep. Joe Jurevicius is a free agent and they need to try and keep him. Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris are both free agents, but the next best runners Brian Calhoun and Joseph Addai do not make much sense at this spot. If Lawrence Maroney is still on the board he could end up a Seahawk. I have said his name a lot but Ko Simpson could be a consideration here, since the injury to free agent Marquand Manual exposed a costly lack of depth in the Super Bowl. Still, Chad Jackson expects to run a true 4.4 or below at the Combine and that could land him in this area of the draft. Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius are not long term solutions at the position and Joe may even leave in free agency. Ernie Sims would be an interesting pick here to play weak side linebacker over D.D. Lewis, a spot vacated by standout Anthony Simmons.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Maurice Stovall, Notre Dame
Maurice expects to run a 4.4 at the Combine, but that will not materialize. His size will be what the Steelers crave, after signing Cedrick Wilson to give them a little size factor in their receivers only to see him have an inconsistent 26 catch season. Antwaan Randle El appears to be ready to leave the team in free agency, and the team may envision a tandem that harkens back to Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward, without all the Plaxico drama. The team will want to continue to build around Ben Roethlisberger. There are not many offensive line or defensive picks that make sense here for the Steelers. They could draft Ko Simpson to team up with Polamalu, but that could be too much of one thing. They could draft Johnathon Joseph to help their corner situation. If Claude Wroten impresses teams in interview, they could go that direction. This pick in my mock draft will likely change every time the wind blows.
1. Houston Texans - RB Reggie Bush, USC
Come on, we all saw this coming. After the Rose Bowl there was some hype that caused me to forget myself and think the Texans would take Vince due to the hometown hero thing, but the writing on the wall soon became painfully clear. Every HC candidate they interviewed was asked how they would utilize Reggie Bush. Bob McNair told Pete Carroll that Reggie is their man. Now they exercise the $8 million option on Carr's contract. Yet, somehow they still try to insist they are keeping there options open. PFFFT. Just start negotiating Reggie's contract now. Give him a playbook, a uniform, everything.
2. New Orleans Saints - QB Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Ohhhhh snap! No he didn't! No he didn't! He went there girlfriend, he went there. I admit, this is more out of shock value than anything else. It matters not to me whether Cutler goes to New Orleans and Leinart to Tennessee, or Leinart to New Orleans and Cutler to Tennessee. The bottom line is both QBs are gone by pick #4. The hype on Cutler is very real and so are his physical skills. Leinart's situation is a lot like Peyton Manning's was coming out: a body of work that speaks for itself but so much time at the top everyone loves to take shots at him until he falls. It took some real discipline by Bill Polian to stick to his guns and take Peyton. This time around, I am not sure New Orleans displays that discipline, not to mention Reggie Bush has put a shot across his teammate's bow by passing him on the draft boards. Reggie destabilized Leinart's value, and scouts are finding all kinds of ways to criticize him now. This includes the latest fashionable criticism that he has a poor attitude.
3. Tennessee Titans - QB Matt Leinart, USC
Surprisingly, I really don't think the Titans will be as excited about getting Leinart instead of Young or Cutler as everyone thinks. I think they would take Leinart over Young, for sure. But they MIGHT have taken Cutler over Leinart, if they had the choice (which they won't). Then again, I'm also envisioning this maniacal genius scheme to give weight to the whole "Cutler is the best QB in the draft" school of thought by showing open interest in Cutler at #3, which augments his hype until it induces New Orleans (not known for their football brains) to take Cutler instead of Leinart, leaving Chow reunited with the QB that made his offense run like a japanese car. Genius! It is a semi-plausible theory. The single biggest factor that brought Phil Rivers to a #4 pick in the draft was not his Senior Bowl, but the Chargers being openly enamored with him even though they pick #1 overall. I really do think, however, that the Titans see another Carson Palmer when they look at hometown Nashville hero Jay Cutler. Matt Leinart would be a great consolation prize for them. Onward Honda Civic offense, onward.
4. NY Jets - LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
I get the feeling they'd love to trade out of here. But, I hate mock drafts that project trades. They're sort of like grammy predictions that have Billy Ray Cyrus making a comeback and winning one for the mullet. Thin. Real thin. If the Jets stay here, they will take NY native Ferguson because when you get down to it, he's probably the best player in the entire draft. They may already have a QB by the time they take Brick (Rivers), too. Even if they don't, I think they take Brick over Vince. Ferguson is the best pass protecting tackle prospect I can ever remember. He truly belongs in the same draft class with Boselli, Ogden, and Pace. Then again, wasn't Tony Mandrich in that class? LOL.
5. Green Bay Packers - DE Mario Williams, NC State
By the time the Combine is over I have a strong feeling Mario Williams will come out with a Julius Peppers type reputation. Instead of betting here which player the Pack will take based on some obscure needs, I'm going to bet on which player I think is going to look like the golden goose when they are picking at #5. Someone with an NFL agent buddy that was hoping to end up Mario's agent told me to expect Mario to put up some sick workout numbers. Having seen him on the field, I can believe it. If that proves to be true, Mario could shoot up my own personal board to the true Julius Peppers of this draft, where I would value him the #2 player in the draft. I am sure the Pack likes AJ Hawk, but Combine numbers do not provide the kind of upside for a linebacker like Hawk where much about him is already known, as with a DE like Williams where much about him is not known. Plus, pass rusher is always considered a higher priority position than linebacker.
6. Oakland Raiders - LB AJ Hawk, Ohio State
Could the Raiders take Vince Young? Name me the last time the Raiders took a QB with a pick in the top 20 of the first round, or the last time they went to the playoffs with a QB under 30 years old. It's just not an Al Davis maneuver. He's opposed to drafting first round QBs, and they feel they got their man last year in the 3rd round in Andrew Walter, a big tall guy that has a deep arm. Also, Vince does not seem like the kind of QB that would maximize the value of Jerry Porter (signed long term), Randy Moss (signed long term), Doug Gabriel, and Ronald Curry. A running QB cuts down on the number of passing plays to feed them. That's like feeding all six Brady Bunch kids breakfast out of one bowl of cereal. I'm going with my gut. My gut says AJ Hawk, with all his attitude and ferocity feeding into the Raiders fans' attitude and ferocity. By the way, doesn't the #6 pick get decided by coin flip? So why does everyone and their sister have the Raiders picking #6? Are coin flips that predictable nowadays?
7. San Francisco 49ers - LB Chad Greenway, Iowa
Credit goes to my colleague Boomer on this one. The 49ers do seem to love what Greenway brings to the table. He's big, he can play outside, he is savvy as all heck, a leader, high attitude/character, he's gifted in coverage, and he can make big tackles. He's not the pass rusher type, but I believe they have Andre Carter for that. I wanted to go with DeAngelo Williams here at one point, but I think Nolan gave himself away a bit when he shot down rumors of Ricky Williams to San Francisco by talking about what a great RB situation they have with Barlow, Gore, and Hicks. I agree with him, mostly about Gore. Third round pick Gore stayed healthy and grabbed 608 yards on only 127 carries. He really showed some promise this season. He may not be durable enough to carry things himself but they have Barlow and Hicks to help with that. With a crappy offensive line and zero passing game this season, Barlow, Hicks, and Gore rushed only 150 yards shy of the total that Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown put up. You don't hear anyone suggesting Miami use a top pick on a "franchise" running back to replace our multi-RB backfield. I think the 49ers could seriously go for Vernon Davis here, because Eric Johnson appears to be out the door, and a young QB's best friend is always a good Tight End. The 49ers really need line help but will not reach for Winston Justice at #7 overall. On the bright side if they win the coin flip with the Raiders, they get AJ Hawk.
8. Buffalo Bills - DT Haloti Ngata, Oregon
The last time Dick Jauron was a head coach up in Chicago, correct me if I am mistaken but didn't he acquire Ted Washington and Keith Traylor (two nose tackles if ever I saw one) to play side by side in the middle of the defense? I think this helps to explain why this pick has been considered so terribly predictable by every mock draft thus far. Jauron wants big bodies in the middle and if Sam Adams leaves, the Bills have none. Look for them to try and keep Adams, and to put Haloti Ngata right next to him so that they can both be lazy boulders together. They could also use offensive line, but again Winston Justice could be a reach at this spot and the Bills got burned on a top 10 pick on Mike Williams. If Nate Clements leaves as a free agent, they could go with Michael Huff, Jimmy Williams, or even Antonio Cromartie at this spot.
9. Detroit Lions - CB/S Michael Huff, Texas
At this pick I am wrestling between TE Vernon Davis and CB/S Michael Huff. In the end, I think they stop overstocking the offense and start helping out the defense a little more. R.W. McQuarters had a surprising good year but is still getting up there in age, and Jon McGraw is not exactly the show stopper that convinces you to stay away from Huff. The last time they drafted a Longhorn, they came out pretty good with Roy Williams. There is not a 4-3 linebacker or an offensive tackle here worthy of temptation, and their defensive line is stocked with investment. This should make Huff the easy pick, although Vernon Davis holds the potential for a lot of upside from his workout numbers. He is a workout warrior and could run a 4.4 and put up the 225 pound bar enough to make Millen's jaw drop, but Marinelli will probably be asking for Huff or Demeco Ryans. He'll get Huff. Mike Martz would probably skip town immediately and de-list his phone number if Millen drafted Vince Young.
10. Arizona Cardinals - RB LenDale N. Glendale, USC
The interesting part about this selection is not that Denny Green will pass on a maligned black quarterback that many consider to be the most talented player in the draft, but rather that upon announcement of the Cardinals' selection, Snoop Dogg will announce a shrewd marketing maneuver to change his client's full legal name from LenDale White to LenDale Nizzle Glendale, or 'LenDale N. Glendale'. At this point the Cardinals could use some offensive line and running back help, but with Ferguson gone they won't be able to hide their woody for LenDale Nizzle. The Cards have spent too many resources pumping their receivers group full of talent to go with a running quarterback that cuts down on the number of thrown passes. Fo' shizzle, dizzle.
11. St. Louis Rams - QB Vince Young, Texas
I will make this one easy on Dolphin fans, some of which would excorporate a brick if I had the Dolphins taking Vince Young, and some of which would light city hall on fire if I had the Dolphins passing on Vince Young. The Dolphins were rumored to be interested in Young before Linehan's departure. Scott Linehan has shown a clear preference in his time for quarterbacks that can run and have strong arms, or rather should I say he has shown a clear preference pattern to NOT go for quarterbacks that have weak arms or that cannot run a lick. Even Gus Frerotte has great pocket awareness. I do not think Marc Bulger and Scott Linehan go well together because of Bulger's lack of arm strength and mobility. Vince Young falling out of the top 10 would be excuse enough for Scott to get his quarterback of the future. Linehan favors the shotgun formation heavily, and that lends itself extremely well to Vince Young's game. Of any offense in the NFL, Scott Linehan's shares the most resemblance to the kind of gimmicky offenses you see in college. Vince Young is a challenge I feel Scott Linehan is up for, and I find a high probability that Young will become a Ram if snubbed by the Titans.
12. Cleveland Browns - RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis State
This is one of those picks I will end up regretting. But the truth of the matter is DeAngelo probably should not fall this far. People say the Browns have three running backs, but the truth is they have none. Lee Suggs, William Green, and Reuben Droughns are all not worth a starting job. Despite Droughns' surprising season, they still fielded one of the worst ground games in the NFL last season, and that isn't the way to help a young quarterback. I would have them taking Vernon Davis here but they got burned by Kellen Winslow too bad to go that route. I would have them taking Gabe Watson or Manny Lawson as cogs in Crennel's 3-4 defense, but their defense was significantly better than their offense last year, and I think DeAngelo becomes a value call. I have an inexplicable feeling that Phil Savage will like DeAngelo Williams.
13. Baltimore Ravens - OT Winston Justice, USC
The Ravens are a mess everywhere and that means one thing: back to the basics, block and tackle. Jimmy Williams will tempt the Ravens as a possible replacement for soon-to-be free agent departure Will Demps. They are rumored to be shopping Chris McAlister and/or Ray Lewis in trade, and if either leaves that could put them in line for a corner like Williams or Antonio Cromartie, or even a linebacker like Demeco Ryans. They have enough DE/LB types so Manny Lawson will not be a consideration. They are high on Tye Hill, but hope he falls to the second round on size concerns. They have not been sound on the offensive line; Tony Pashos and Zeus Brown do not constitute a solid right tackle position. The Ravens need to get back to the days when they could out-block and out-tackle everyone. The rest will fall into line once they can do that.
14. Philadelphia Eagles - LB Demeco Ryans, Alabama
I still think Santonio Holmes just does not grade this high. If there was a dominant receiver here, they would take him, but Santonio Holmes is not a dominant receiver prospect. In Demeco Ryans the Eagles will have a guy who can man the same spot in Jim Johnson's defense taken up by William Thomas what seems like ages ago, and Nate Wayne and Keith Adams in more recent memory. Ryans is a versatile weak side candidate that can cover, tackle, and rush the quarterback as long as he does not have a whole lot of big bodies getting their hands all over him. He has excellent instincts. The Eagles' biggest problems in 2005 were that they were too inconsistent on defense both pressuring the passer and in stopping the run. They like Mike Patterson enough to stick with him, even though as a rookie he was not the same player Corey Simon was for them. Tamba Hali will be a very strong consideration at this spot, as will Manny Lawson. Jerome McDougle is an X factor though. If he has recovered and has been sound enough in rehab to make the staff comfortable with counting on him, they will shy away from a DE and toward Ryans to help them establish better versatility and dominance.
15. Atlanta Falcons - CB Antonio Cromartie, FSU
I do not think it has been much of a secret that the Falcons would love to find someone who can play opposite DeAngelo Hall, and Cromartie would give the Falcons quite possibly the fastest starting tandem of corners in the NFL. Eventually, they could be the best corner tandem in the NFL as well. Nick Saban always says that your talent at the corner position dictates the kinds of things you can do on defense, and having Cromartie and Hall together will allow the Falcons to do anything their hearts desire. If Gabe Watson finds a way to climb up the boards as I believe he will, he could be a consideration here, but Cromartie's potential workout numbers could have him soaring even higher than this pick. If the Falcons do not keep Dunn, and DeAngelo Williams slips past the Browns, the Falcons will probably take DeAngelo.
16. Miami Dolphins - DT Gabe Watson, Michigan
Jay Cutler off the board. Vince Young off the board. Michael Huff, Chad Greenway, Winston Justice, Haloti Ngata, and Antonio Cromartie all off the board. All is right with the world, and hell is still hot. I can honestly say that Gabe Watson is the most talented player left on the board here. He is a planet on the interior of the defensive line, a fast-moving one at that. He is ridiculously athletic and once upon a time he was a 5-star elite tackle prospect coming out of high school. He is a genuinely high character guy, and if Nick looks to add anti-christs like Terrell Owens to the locker room chemistry, you might as well add the mother theresa Gabe Watson on the other side to try and balance the team's karma. Watson has given away both his bowl rings, one to his dad and another to a little kid that loves Michigan football, and the only plan he has in place to spend his money is to start a company that helps underprivileged kids. At the Senior Bowl he was so ridiculously dominant against a North OL that featured high grade interior prospects like Davin Joseph, Charles Spencer, and Nick Mangold, that the coaches actually had to take Gabe out of practice so that the line could get in some 'constructive' work. Watson could replace Keith Traylor immediately, or more likely serve as his backup until he is in the full NFL shape Saban demands, and is ready to take the training pants off. This would virtually mirror the Patriots' handling of Vince Wilfork two years ago. Drafting Watson would help move Manuel Wright back to his more natural under tackle position, where he could be a force with his natural pass rushing skills.
17. Minnesota Vikings - TE Vernon Davis, Maryland
It is Vernon's bad luck that there are some teams picking right around where he should go in the draft that have high quality tight ends locked up long term (Atlanta, Philly, Baltimore, and Miami). Minnesota will make him theirs if he is available. Randy Moss leaves Minnesota and surprise surprise, they don't have enough reliable weapons on offense to bail out the quarterback. Is Jermaine Wiggins the real deal, or did Scott Linehan help him get where he got by opening the middle of the field wide with the deep passing game to Moss? Moss is not there now, and they've got young grooming receiving talent that they might not want to replace yet. The way to help Brad Johnson and Daunte Culpepper will be either a runner or a tight end. They could go with backyard runner Lawrence Maroney here, especially if Davis is off the board, but with Davis there I think they go with the smart valuation call. Brad Childress made great use of athletic tight end LJ Smith in Philadelphia, and Chad Lewis before him.
18. Dallas Cowboys - WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
Last year the Cowboys really laid down some excellent groundwork on the defense with the free agent acquisition of Anthony Henry, as well as the drafting of Chris Canty, Marcus Spears, Kevin Burnett, and Demarcus Ware. Greg Ellis and La'Roi Glover are still on the squad, as are Terrance Newman and Roy Williams. The Boys still have hopes for Drew Henson at QB, and this should definitely be considered too high for Brodie Croyle. Max Jean-Gilles should be a consideration here, as would be Marcus McNeil (depending on how his back grades out medically), because the Boys need some help up front. But their receivers group, featuring Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn, is looking a little long in the tooth. Some investment is definitely in order, since it generally takes two or three years to fully polish up a replacement for a current starter at the WR position. Santonio has the kind of speed that the Cowboys had in mind when they acquired Peerless Price (who will be a free agent), so he could contribute immediately as a deep burner. There are line prospects to be had in the 2nd and 3rd round. There aren't many receivers in this draft with the speed and savvy of Holmes. Jimmy Williams will pop up on their radar screen if he makes it this far, but the present of Roy Williams, Anthony Henry, and Terrance Newman may scare the Boys away from overinvestment in the defensive backfield.
19. San Diego Chargers - CB/S Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
The Chargers have not drafted a defensive back since they drafted Sammy Davis, Drayton Florence, and Terrance Kiel back in 2003. Davis and Florence have been forgettable, while Quentin Jammer looks like a keeper. For the second year in a row, the Chargers' secondary has been unable to stop the pass. It is high time to stem the tide by selecting Williams, if he makes it to their pick. AJ Smith would hype the holy heck out of this selection as managing to get a top 10 pick at pick #19, but the truth of the matter is Jimmy Williams is a little too much of a safety/corner tweener to make teams in the top 15 fully comfortable with him compared to other more talented players like Michael Huff and Antonio Cromartie. He does not show the hips to make him a sure fire corner prospect, and does not show the instincts to be the same kind of game changing safety as Michael Huff. The Chargers will put Jimmy at corner and work him into that position, and eventually he will be a good asset to have guarding against tall guys like Randy Moss and Ashley Lelie, and even a tight end like Tony Gonzales. The Chargers have to also be thinking about offensive line at this spot, but as of yet I am not comfortable putting McNeil here until I know more about the medical condition in his back. The Chargers appear openly enamored with every LB/DE prospect out there, so Manny Lawson will be a big consideration.
20. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Broderick Bunkley, FSU
The Chiefs have a very poor receivers group, especially with Boerigter being an unrestricted free agent, so I would not be surprised if they used this selection on Santonio Holmes, were he to make it to their spot. The next best receivers, Chad Jackson or Sinorice Moss depending on who you talk to, might not be worthy of this high a selection. The receivers group is so bad, however, that they will likely focus their free agency efforts to fix the position right away. Meanwhile, Lionel Dalton is a free agent and both Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii appear to be somewhat of a bust. The line suffered from a lack of genuine pass rush, but Jared Allen individually has shown promise at the right end spot. The Chiefs could go for Tamba Hali here, or Ko Simpson to add some athleticism to the secondary. I doubt they would go for a corner to apply help directly to the poor pass defense. They were a good offensive team in 2005 that forced teams into a lot of passing to try and come back from leads. They managed a mediocre interception count, and generally kept everything in front of them with a highly respectable yards per attempt. However, their low sack count speaks volumes of their third down defense and ability to put games away. You could fix the pass rush from the outside in, with a Tamba Hali to replace Eric Hicks, or you could fix it from the inside out with Broderick Bunkley to apply genuine pressure from the middle and collapse the pocket so that Jared Allen and their linebackers can collect the easy sacks. The Chiefs should prefer the latter, but there is no telling what they will end up doing.
21. New England Patriots - DE/OLB Manny Lawson, NC State
A lot of folks have New England selecting Lawrence Maroney or another running back here, but I am not sure that I am convinced yet. Belichick has not taken or used this high a pick on a running back since the "Touchdown" Tommy Vardell disaster in which he ignored the advice of his friend and defensive coordinator Nick Saban, choosing "Touchdown" Tommy over cornerback Dale Carter. Lawrence Maroney will make a good selection for some team but I could see Belichick being leery of a back that comes from a system with a history of making lesser talented players look better than they actually are with their zone stretch blocking scheme (the same made famous by Alex Gibbs with the Broncos and Falcons). Belichick will also be leery of putting a player next to Tom Brady that is not considered to be versatile enough to keep defenders from killing Tom or to provide a dangerous outlet for Tom's checkdowns. If push came to shove, Bill would probably take the less exciting Joseph Addai over Maroney, especially given his history with Nick Saban's LSU players. Manny Lawson has a little Rosevelt Colvin in him, and a little Willie McGinest in him. He could be an effective undersized pass rushing specialist RDE in a 4-3 alignment, but he could also be a gifted open end or outside linebacker in the 3-4. He has the athleticism to play the position, and flashed a few skills in space during special teams drills at the Senior Bowl. His workout numbers should be on the Shawne Merriman ridiculous end (rumored sub-4.60 forty with a 46 inch vertical) but his tweener nature and lack of experience at LB may shy teams in the top 15 away from him, unlike Merriman. The Patriots will take that kind of raw Jason Taylor athlete and groom him for a year behind McGinest, who is a little too old to go on playing much beyond 2006.
22. Denver Broncos - DE Tamba Hali, Penn State
The Broncos get kudos for coming up boxcars on Gerard Warren, but their gamble on Courtney Brown did not pay off nearly as well. The Broncos are a team that is itching for high investment in a wide receiver or a tight end, but there is not one available that makes sense here. This would be too high for Leonard Pope, and with such a deep class of tight ends (the best in many years), the Broncos have to be thinking they could get a good tight end later. At receiver, Chad Jackson, Maurice Stovall, and Sinorice Moss do not belong this high. With Mike Anderson aged to a ripe 33 years old, Tatum Bell never showing an ability to handle a feature back load, and third round investment Maurice Clarett getting himself cut, the team needs a low-cost runner and is exploring the possibility of trading for Ricky Williams. Lawrence Maroney, coming from virtually the same ground-based offense in Minnesota as Denver, has to look very attractive to the Broncos, but likely not at pick #22. With Tamba Hali falling due to his not being overly big for a 3-4 end, and not being overly fast for a 4-3 end or 3-4 linebacker, the Broncos would not be able to resist him at this spot. If they do not trade for Ricky Williams, they can get another runner later, as they have done many times before.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Marcus McNeil, Auburn
It is entirely possible that Jon Gruden made up his mind about this pick last year when he selected Cadillac Williams with the #5 pick. McNeil is a natural left tackle and the bottom line statistics on him are amazing. He has not let up a single sack as a tackle. He let one up a few years ago as a guard. The Bucs had bad problems at left tackle. Fielding Anthony Davis at left tackle is not the way to allow a young quarterback like Simms to blossom. Gruden will know that McNeil can run block, because he has seen all the tape run blocking for Cadillac. Receivers do not excite Gruden. Big play linebackers and fast defensive backs do not excite him. The guys up front excite him. His dreams are full of tackles and guards turning out their 3-technique or 5-technique defenders just right, to pop Cadillac open for a big run play. McNeil could grade out higher than this, depending on his medical examinations at the Combine. Whispers among scouts are that he has back problems. If the Buccaneers satisfy themselves medically, they will take him if he is there at #23.
24. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Mathias Kiwanuku, Boston College
The Bengals are not in an enviable position with such a bad injury to budding star quarterback Carson Palmer. To keep their champagne wishes and caviar dreams alive until Carson can come back, they will need to play Marvin Lewis defense. That should start up front, where Bryan Robinson and clearly is not the kind of effective interior player that Lewis will want. Since John Thornton is an effective player, they may attempt to fill at spot in free agency. Even so, the Bengals will be taking hard looks at players like Gabe Watson, Broderick Bunkley, and Rodrique Wright. I have Bunkley and Watson already gone, but if either gets passed up, Lewis will want one of them. Kiwanuku got a bad rap at the Senior Bowl week because coached pitted him against D'Brickashaw Ferguson the entire week. Their individual battles were tremendous, but Ferguson ended up winning them consistently. The unfortunate part for Mathias is that he is actually a gifted defensive end, he just happened to draw the next Lomas Brown during Senior Bowl week. Mathias can play right end, and is versatile against the run or pass. If Claude Wroten manages to tap dance his way into a clear reputation after his recent arrest that involved the cops finding multiple bags of marijuana and charging him with intent to sell, the Bengals may be induced to take him as he would be optimal to replace Robinson. It is hard to say whether the Bengals will have a hangover from the recent antics of high character risk guys in Odell Thurman, Chris Henry, and Chad Johnson, or if those guys are endemic of their systematic disregard of character issues (such as with the Broncos).
25. New York Giants - LB Bobby Carpenter, Ohio State
Consensus has the Giants seeking out more corner help after stupidly relying on Terrell Buckley to be the answer to Steve Smith's question in the playoffs. Yet, they did draft Corey Webster in the 2nd round of 2005 and if Nick Saban is to be believed, he is a very gifted corner. He played relatively well as a rookie. If they get rid of Will Peterson, a high round rookie corner is not going to be the answer to their problems; free agency would be a much better and more appropriate answer. The Giants had some problems in their linebackers group exposed, especially when Antonio Pierce got injured toward the end of the season. In a town use to having guys like Lawrence Taylor, Harry Carson, Pepper Johnson, and Jesse Armstead...Tom Coughlin is fielding the likes of Reggie Torbor, Nick Greisen, Chase Blackburn, and Barret Green. The position is screaming for high investment, and rookies can make an impact at the position, which should satisfy Coughlin's win now tendencies. Coughlin has also shown a disturbing tendency to highly value the same players that the Miami Dolphins and Nick Saban highly value.
26. Chicago Bears - OG Max Jean-Gilles, Georgia
While the Bears genuinely need help on the offensive line, on offense they are generally playing the waiting game, waiting for prospects like Rex Grossman and Mark Bradley to lead them to the promised land. Your instinct with a defense as good as the Bears' defense is to leave them alone. In the meantime, until they are ready to start over from scratch on offense, they win with good defense and a ground game. I have them taking Max Jean-Gilles here to keep the offensive line strong, but do not be surprised if they go with defense, since an inconsistent waist bender like Jon Scott probably will not be worthy of the #26 pick and some coaches feel strongly about not taking interior OL with a first round pick. Jean-Gilles is a giant people mover with very long arms for a guard, and he moves extremely well for his girth. Some look at him and see the next Larry Allen. If the Bears go defense, they could look to corners Jonathon Joseph, Ashton Youboty, or Tye Hill to pick up where free agent Jerry Azumah left off. Ko Simpson could be a strong consideration, even with strong play out of Mike Brown and Mike Green.
27. Carolina Panthers - TE Leonard Pope, Georgia
The Panthers will want to find Brentson Buckner's replacement, and Claude Wroten seems to be a perfect fit here, but he still has legal issue overhang until I start hearing about teams forgiving him for possessing two bags of marijuana when he was pulled over a few days after the Peach Bowl. The charges may have been dropped, but the incident remains. Lucky for Claude, they dropped the charges early enough that he could sneak back into this area with good interviews. In the playoffs, the Panthers lack of weapons outside Steve Smith was completely exposed. That does not make WR an appropriate investment here, however. The Panthers have promising young talent at the receiver position in Drew Carter and Keary Colbert. Not unlike the Bears, this puts the Panthers in the waiting game with their WR development. The Cats also drafted Eric Shelton in the 2nd round and would shy away from replacing him with another draft pick so soon, but that won't scare them away from a free agent like Shaun Alexander. The Panthers need another weapon and one good way to establish some immediate matchup problems over the middle, and to build your arsenal, is grabbing a top rated tight end like Leonard Pope. Pope is versatile as a blocker and a pass catcher, which should satisfy John Fox's balanced tendencies.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Ashton Youboty, Ohio State
It would be funny to see them select yet another overly tall receiver like Maurice Stovall here, but the reality is the Jags need to start finding themselves on the ground again, and Fred Taylor just is not reliable. However, the Jags have been sniffing at Ricky Williams in trade, which means they have first dibs on Ricky assuming equal bids from the Jaguars, Colts, and Broncos (the three teams that have been rumored to be interested thus far). A fiery bidding war over the former pothead is not likely. From a bigger picture standpoint, the interest could just mean they were hoping not to have to use this pick for a running back. The team drafted Scott Starks at the corner position but he looks like a nickel back. The pick here is Youboty, because Kenny Wright is not a guy to hang your hat on and he and Terry Cousin are free agents besides. An X-factor could be Ko Simpson, if the Jags finally part ways with Donovan Darius as they've been rumored to want to over the last few years. Another possibility could be Thomas Howard, who could impress the Jaguars staff with his great workout numbers enough to replace free agent Akin Ayodele.
29. Denver Broncos - RB Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota
The Broncos may trade this pick. This is the second of their two first round picks, which makes it prime for trading. They are the only team in the draft with two first round picks. If they trade this pick to the Miami Dolphins in a trade that involves Ricky Williams, I see the Dolphins selecting South Carolina Safety Ko Simpson. If not, Lawrence Maroney has to look extremely tempting because he is a Minnesota back and Minnesota runs the same kind of zone stretch ground attack that the Broncos run. He is a little bit undersized, like Tatum Bell, but the two of them together could give the Broncos nice insurance for each other in case of injury or ineffectiveness. The important thing to note is Maroney is the back that is most likely to be able to step into the Broncos ground game and have immediate success, which is what the Broncos really want here. If the Broncos passed on Maroney, it would likely be for Maurice Stovall.
30. Indianapolis Colts - CB Tye Hill, Clemson
This pick should be an offensive lineman, but Bill Polian does not have a history of picking up offensive linemen this high. Tye Hill's lack of size (5'9") will not sway the Colts from selecting him for their generally undersized defense. Hill has very long arms for such a short corner, which allow him to mask his height problems and play the ball really well. He was without a doubt the best corner at the Senior Bowl, and stayed in the hip pocket of every receiver he went against. The Colts are the third team seemingly in the running for Ricky Williams. If they do not get him, and the Broncos do not select Lawrence Maroney, the Colts may select him. Bill Polian was at the Minnesota-Virginia bowl game. He claimed he was not scouting Maroney, but there were certainly very few other players the GM himself could have been going out of his way to scout in person. If they want Maroney, they may have to trade up for him, which means they may give a good sniff at Ricky Williams, since their cap situation is such that an expensive free agent runner and keeping WR Reggie Wayne are probably mutually exclusive events. Again, if the Dolphins end up with this pick, Ko Simpson looks to be the best on their board.
31. Seattle Seahawks - WR Chad Jackson, Florida
The Seahawks' off season will rightfully center around who they manage to keep. Joe Jurevicius is a free agent and they need to try and keep him. Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris are both free agents, but the next best runners Brian Calhoun and Joseph Addai do not make much sense at this spot. If Lawrence Maroney is still on the board he could end up a Seahawk. I have said his name a lot but Ko Simpson could be a consideration here, since the injury to free agent Marquand Manual exposed a costly lack of depth in the Super Bowl. Still, Chad Jackson expects to run a true 4.4 or below at the Combine and that could land him in this area of the draft. Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius are not long term solutions at the position and Joe may even leave in free agency. Ernie Sims would be an interesting pick here to play weak side linebacker over D.D. Lewis, a spot vacated by standout Anthony Simmons.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Maurice Stovall, Notre Dame
Maurice expects to run a 4.4 at the Combine, but that will not materialize. His size will be what the Steelers crave, after signing Cedrick Wilson to give them a little size factor in their receivers only to see him have an inconsistent 26 catch season. Antwaan Randle El appears to be ready to leave the team in free agency, and the team may envision a tandem that harkens back to Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward, without all the Plaxico drama. The team will want to continue to build around Ben Roethlisberger. There are not many offensive line or defensive picks that make sense here for the Steelers. They could draft Ko Simpson to team up with Polamalu, but that could be too much of one thing. They could draft Johnathon Joseph to help their corner situation. If Claude Wroten impresses teams in interview, they could go that direction. This pick in my mock draft will likely change every time the wind blows.
