dolphinron24
Active Roster
So you are wrong too huh?
Do not resign Tua
- Thread starter mandal24
- Start date
Mello Yello
Active Roster
This is actually an interesting topic believe it or not...and it has very little, if anything, to do with Tua himself.
I think we all appreciate that Tua is productive but your feelings on this should tie to how much he's going to cost and whether or not it's good for the Miami Dolphins to sink that into him long-term.
Look at all the QBs who made the Super Bowl from the last 20 or so years who were on rookie deals:
Hurts
Burrow
Mahomes
Goff
Wentz
Wilson
Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Roethlisberger
Grossman
Brady
Now look at the QBs who made it on 2nd/3rd deals but who were generally viewed as averaged / replaceable:
Stafford
Garoppolo
Newton
Ryan
Flacco
Hasselbeck
McNabb
Gannon
Dilfer
Warner
The point here is that it doesn't take an all-time great or HoF QB to reach the Super Bowl and moreover, having such a QB doesn't guarantee you'll get more than 1 or maybe 2 shots at it. Peyton dominated with the Colts but only made it twice (until reaching two more with Denver). Brees dominated with the Saints and only made it once. Philip Rivers famously never got there at all despite some incredible seasons in San Diego.
If you remove some of the repeat offenders that skew the data (guys like Brady, Peyton, Mahomes who were all-time greats who got there repeatedly) you can actually make a case that the best (or at least most common) way to get to the Super Bowl is with a good team that features a rookie-contract QB (or an equally-cheap one).
It makes sense...you have to find a hack somewhere. If you have a great team, it's probably an expensive one. Those roster spots won't all be rookie-contract players. Finding a cheap QB is a HUGE bonus that offers incredible advantage over the rest of the field.
Believe it or not, this is kind of the meta game that's happening in the NFL.
Roughly 50% of QBs in the Super Bowl these days are rookie-contract players and the majority are relatively cheap QBs with many of the other guys being slightly above-average veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco who happen to be on the right team at the right time with the right players and coaching supporting them. Without the Brady's and Mahomes' there to skew the data in favor of the narrative that "only elite QBs get there" we see something very different among the various year-to-year Super Bowl match-ups.
The relatively low-cost of the QB plays a huge role and is often their biggest feature. From the random guys like Rex Grossman and Colin Kaepernick to the long-term starters like Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Wilson who simply joined great teams and won the Lombardi in year #2...the list is actually shockingly long and the argument that a 2nd/3rd contract is a huge part of what actually shuts the window is somewhat compelling.
If that's truly the new modus operandi of the NFL then maybe the Dolphins should be planning to replace Tua regardless of how he plays? We can safely say he's not a physical freak like Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson and is thus unlikely to provide the "unstoppable" offenses they've had at their peak (blame this on a lack of mobility) and thus he's almost assured to become too expensive for his own good as a purely pocket passer should he earn a big extension (and that's not saying a thing about his being injured 5 of his 6 seasons as a starter at both Bama & Miami).
The Rams have made the Super Bowl twice in recent memory...each time with a different QB (Goff & Stafford). So have the Eagles (Wentz, Foles & Hurts). If the 49ers get there this year, they'll have done the same (Garoppolo & Purdy). Reaching the Super Bowl has so much to do with the team being good that maybe having turnover at QB isn't as bad as commonly thought. If the team is good, the QB is far more likely to have success anyway, right? Maybe you don't "have to" resign a QB just because he plays well?
I think we all understand the impulse to resign Mahomes, Jackson and maybe Allen to the high-priced contracts they've secured but the problem seems to be securing the "other" guys at reasonable prices. Too often we see a Tannehill at $30M or we're talking about some reasonably solid guy like Prescott, Wilson, Herbert, etc. at $40M. I think that's where teams go wrong. None of those QBs are bad...until you factor in the prices.
It's outside-the-box thinking compared with the conventional "you must secure your franchise QB" thinking which dominates internet forums but nonetheless, it's hard to ignore that Tua's biggest feature this year has been the fact that he only cost the Dolphins $10M. No other QB has produced like Tua on a per-dollar basis. The unfortunate reality is that a high-priced extension negates Tua's biggest strength.
It's pretty easy to like your QB when the team's roster is strong and the QB is still on his cheap rookie deal. The real question is whether it's better to retain Tua and buy him a bigger house with a $40M/yr salary or look at the possibility of spending that money on reinforcing the team itself. After all, it's not hard to imagine a young QB coming in and being successful on this team with an offensive-minded HC to hold his hand and with weapons like Mostert, Achane, Hill, Waddle, etc.
Another interesting feature of the "build the team" strategy is that drafting a QB who's a bust (e.g. Trey Lance) doesn't seem to upend the progress the team makes. The 49ers moved right along finding Purdy in the later rounds as did the Eagles with Hurts when his predecessor(s) failed.
So we get to the million dollar question....do we honestly think the Dolphins would consider passing up on Tua?
Eh, the pressure to re-sign and to validate Tua's selection seems high so I think Grier would err on the side of re-signing Tua. However, if the team fails to win a Play-off game this year that'll sting. And if Tua struggles with more injury next year it feels like all bets would be off.
I think we all appreciate that Tua is productive but your feelings on this should tie to how much he's going to cost and whether or not it's good for the Miami Dolphins to sink that into him long-term.
Look at all the QBs who made the Super Bowl from the last 20 or so years who were on rookie deals:
Hurts
Burrow
Mahomes
Goff
Wentz
Wilson
Kaepernick
Eli Manning
Roethlisberger
Grossman
Brady
Now look at the QBs who made it on 2nd/3rd deals but who were generally viewed as averaged / replaceable:
Stafford
Garoppolo
Newton
Ryan
Flacco
Hasselbeck
McNabb
Gannon
Dilfer
Warner
The point here is that it doesn't take an all-time great or HoF QB to reach the Super Bowl and moreover, having such a QB doesn't guarantee you'll get more than 1 or maybe 2 shots at it. Peyton dominated with the Colts but only made it twice (until reaching two more with Denver). Brees dominated with the Saints and only made it once. Philip Rivers famously never got there at all despite some incredible seasons in San Diego.
If you remove some of the repeat offenders that skew the data (guys like Brady, Peyton, Mahomes who were all-time greats who got there repeatedly) you can actually make a case that the best (or at least most common) way to get to the Super Bowl is with a good team that features a rookie-contract QB (or an equally-cheap one).
It makes sense...you have to find a hack somewhere. If you have a great team, it's probably an expensive one. Those roster spots won't all be rookie-contract players. Finding a cheap QB is a HUGE bonus that offers incredible advantage over the rest of the field.
Believe it or not, this is kind of the meta game that's happening in the NFL.
Roughly 50% of QBs in the Super Bowl these days are rookie-contract players and the majority are relatively cheap QBs with many of the other guys being slightly above-average veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco who happen to be on the right team at the right time with the right players and coaching supporting them. Without the Brady's and Mahomes' there to skew the data in favor of the narrative that "only elite QBs get there" we see something very different among the various year-to-year Super Bowl match-ups.
The relatively low-cost of the QB plays a huge role and is often their biggest feature. From the random guys like Rex Grossman and Colin Kaepernick to the long-term starters like Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Wilson who simply joined great teams and won the Lombardi in year #2...the list is actually shockingly long and the argument that a 2nd/3rd contract is a huge part of what actually shuts the window is somewhat compelling.
If that's truly the new modus operandi of the NFL then maybe the Dolphins should be planning to replace Tua regardless of how he plays? We can safely say he's not a physical freak like Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson and is thus unlikely to provide the "unstoppable" offenses they've had at their peak (blame this on a lack of mobility) and thus he's almost assured to become too expensive for his own good as a purely pocket passer should he earn a big extension (and that's not saying a thing about his being injured 5 of his 6 seasons as a starter at both Bama & Miami).
The Rams have made the Super Bowl twice in recent memory...each time with a different QB (Goff & Stafford). So have the Eagles (Wentz, Foles & Hurts). If the 49ers get there this year, they'll have done the same (Garoppolo & Purdy). Reaching the Super Bowl has so much to do with the team being good that maybe having turnover at QB isn't as bad as commonly thought. If the team is good, the QB is far more likely to have success anyway, right? Maybe you don't "have to" resign a QB just because he plays well?
I think we all understand the impulse to resign Mahomes, Jackson and maybe Allen to the high-priced contracts they've secured but the problem seems to be securing the "other" guys at reasonable prices. Too often we see a Tannehill at $30M or we're talking about some reasonably solid guy like Prescott, Wilson, Herbert, etc. at $40M. I think that's where teams go wrong. None of those QBs are bad...until you factor in the prices.
It's outside-the-box thinking compared with the conventional "you must secure your franchise QB" thinking which dominates internet forums but nonetheless, it's hard to ignore that Tua's biggest feature this year has been the fact that he only cost the Dolphins $10M. No other QB has produced like Tua on a per-dollar basis. The unfortunate reality is that a high-priced extension negates Tua's biggest strength.
It's pretty easy to like your QB when the team's roster is strong and the QB is still on his cheap rookie deal. The real question is whether it's better to retain Tua and buy him a bigger house with a $40M/yr salary or look at the possibility of spending that money on reinforcing the team itself. After all, it's not hard to imagine a young QB coming in and being successful on this team with an offensive-minded HC to hold his hand and with weapons like Mostert, Achane, Hill, Waddle, etc.
Another interesting feature of the "build the team" strategy is that drafting a QB who's a bust (e.g. Trey Lance) doesn't seem to upend the progress the team makes. The 49ers moved right along finding Purdy in the later rounds as did the Eagles with Hurts when his predecessor(s) failed.
So we get to the million dollar question....do we honestly think the Dolphins would consider passing up on Tua?
Eh, the pressure to re-sign and to validate Tua's selection seems high so I think Grier would err on the side of re-signing Tua. However, if the team fails to win a Play-off game this year that'll sting. And if Tua struggles with more injury next year it feels like all bets would be off.
Last edited:
dolphinron24
Active Roster
I agree with most of this ...
utahphinsfan
Club Member
utahphinsfan
Club Member
TrogdorTheBurninator
Active Roster
Keep Tua, fix the OL and LB spots. Don't have 50% of your starters injured this time of year. Rome wasn't built in a day.
Honeybadger08
Active Roster
Hey Skippy, remember the Tian game…
What did Tua do exactly? He handed the ball off to Mostert twice inside the Titan 10 yard line for 2 of their scores, as they were gifted the ball by their special teams and defense. The third TD was a defensive pick 6. So I ask you, what did Tua do? He was able to move the team down the field twice in 4 quarters of football, giving Sanders an opportunity to put 2 field goals on the board. You take the 2 gifted possessions inside the Titan 10 yard line and the pick six away and Tua was responsible for 6 points. Yeah, lay the blame on the defense for loosing a 14 point lead with 3 minutes and change left. 
Hey Skippy, remember the Tian game…
Lol, thanks for proving my point.
Imagine what would happen if Tua did that?
Yet the same standard doesn't apply to other QBS I see.
The diferrence is Tua led TD drives not FG tries like Allen.
Haha, thanks for playing
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So a good QB has only been lucky enough to have 2 straight great QB seasons?
dolphinron24
Active Roster
Um who allowed the 14 pts chief?Hey Skippy, remember the Tian game…
Springveldt
Club Member
15 actually.
Exactly.
Pretty much.
Tua is so lucky and opposing teams have completely figured him out that he lucked into 2 straight seasons of being 1st or top 5 in EVERY statistical category of relevance for a QB 2 seasons in a row.
If only every QB could be that lucky or figured out.
Tua has spoiled many with his great play that when he has a bad game, it's still better then most QBS average game.
Tua has spoiled many. Everytime Prime time games are shown, we get to see how poorly other QBS perform. They are not mythical beasts putting up perfect ratings every week.
Comparatively speaking and statistically, Tua has been one of the most consistent if not the most over the last 2 seasons. He doesn't have those under 50 rated games like Allen/Mahomes etc have
Springveldt
Club Member
In the last 2 seasons Tua has had 9 games of a passer rating 92 or below. Josh Allen has had 15.
realdolphin
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Yeah a Pro bowl QB on his rookie contract is useless ok ok, lets gamble and try to get Mr right for another 20 years lol