The public doesn't care about specific categories. Teams like the Dolphins aren't good enough to give big points. They might accidentally win by 17+ against a punchless team but if you give points with teams of this caliber you'll grind out as a loser in the long run.
Why would he possibly believe the spread should be higher? Miami opened in the -6 range hosting Buffalo and it was pounded down to -4. That game fell 4, which means it was the worst possible outcome for the sportsbooks. They basically didn't win a ticket.
If you open it in the 6 range again then you are just asking for the same thing to happen...the spread bet down.
And amidst low scoring games there is greater opportunity for the result to get on the number and stay there, like 17-13. For example, the Jaguars last 7 games have been decided by 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 21, and 3.
Talented team having a down season.
This game always figured to be Dolphins -4. They could have put up that number a month ago as a future line and I doubt it would have shifted at all.
