Don't Want A Rookie On the 2014 OL

[So Be]

When you run the ball fewer than 22 times per game the offensive line will suffer. Same personnel in a more balanced attack would look significantly better. That's why I don't think there's full return in scrutinizing our line play, particularly late in the season. I like to do it very early early in the season. Late in the year there's far too much danger of being misled. McKinnie is washed up but he stepped in and looked decent for a few games. That wouldn't hold up early in the year but it's not surprising. You can't allow yourself to be fooled. I really don't know why offensive line play can change so dramatically late in the season but I've noted it for more than 20 years. There seems to be greater variance in defensive intensity level late in the year. The front sevens get tired and essentially take some games off, but then a week later they are ferocious again. Other than injury related, as a general manager I'd basically throw out any impression of offensive linemen after midseason.

Our reserves are pathetic. You've got to believe we'll have at least one rookie, perhaps two. Southbeach has the correct perspective in that rookie linemen are not reliable, no matter what it looks like coming out of college. Lane Johnson, for example, didn't resemble his college level at all early this season with the Eagles. Clumsy. If I didn't know better I wouldn't have believed it was the same guy. Often the lower round picks can adjust more quickly, sometimes when they are thrown into the starting lineup later in the year.

I'm not a huge fan of Zach Martin. Yeah, he's good but I don't see special. At this point as a 5th year senior and already 23 years old he's more mature and advanced than the players he has lined up against. Narrow shoulders for tackle or guard. I'm sure he'll be a good reliable pro but I'd prefer taking a swing on great. I think there is value in 3rd or 4th round offensive linemen, despite our example with Dallas Thomas last year. I still can't believe that Brian Schwenke was sitting there in the 4th round last year and we didn't want him. We took Dion Sims one slot ahead of the Titans identifying Schwenke, who started late in the season as a rookie. Schwenke is actually younger than Zach Martin.

Last time we picked at #19, we got Vernon Carey, who strangely enough got me watching the OL on tape. He only played in 2 games his first year but, was VG from year 2. Hell, even Big Jake was somewhat shaky in his rookie year. Guys on the OL need a year to adapt or they will cost you a game or two with mistakes.

To expand on your Lane Johnson comment, Martin outplayed him in pass protect the first half of last year but, he was supposedly NFL ready with no problems. That should tell everyone something on counting on rookies their first year.

Had not considered the 2nd half breakdown before. Gonna compare a few games before agreeing. I have to initially disagree on Clabo. It seemed that he found his old self in the second half from what I saw. Mckennie was just a waste who some like because of a few things he said.

SB pick ready yet? I'm going with Seattle.

 

[123phins]

You obviously don't understand the cap, and you obviously don't know there's good value to be had in every FA crop. My approach, get good pass protectors on the outside, maulers on the inside. $6m for Collins, elite pass protector. Then $15m-$6m isn't $6m, so don't get where you're getting 2 guys for 3 each, roughly 4.5 each. Solid starter contracts. So you already have one of the best centers in football, a guy who didn't allow a sack the year before and a stop gap, probably a tackle that you can draft a replacement behind. There's tons of good G/C's to choose from to man one of the OL spots, so we don't have half a line of rookies, who are expected to start and play next to each other. Recipe for disaster. You don't need an elite OL, you need a good OL. Waaaay too many resources your route and the margin for error is much slimmer. I don't see how a line of say Collins-DraftPick-Pouncey-Asamoah-Ryan Harris is mediocre. Athletic lineman that get to the second level. We go your route, we got one guy who doesn't even fit our scheme, and an overpaid fat boy like Albert.

What's your contingency plan? You saw last year when guys like Terron Armstead were taken right before our pick and we had to panic and reach for need. Ended up with Dallas Thomas. Moses is considered a top-64 pick, who's next in line? Martin is getting a lot of love right now, what if he's off the board? I've also mentioned Cyril isn't a fit. Entering a draft with an OL of Albert-Garner-Pouncey-Brenner-Yeatman?

Read what you said, u said 2 guys for 8 (6 and 3) and you said 2 more for 15 (15-9=6, 6/2=3) 3 guys for 3 and 1 for 6 is what you said. I would sign albert for 7 or 8 and a top gaurd for 5 or 6 and get 2 guys in the draft to compete with current guys on the roster for the start

 

[So Be]

Read what you said, u said 2 guys for 8 (6 and 3) and you said 2 more for 15 (15-9=6, 6/2=3) 3 guys for 3 and 1 for 6 is what you said. I would sign albert for 7 or 8 and a top gaurd for 5 or 6 and get 2 guys in the draft to compete with current guys on the roster for the start

NOT trying to pick on ya here but, do you understand how the cap works? Many do not.

 

[123phins]

NOT trying to pick on ya here but, do you understand how the cap works? Many do not.

I do understand how the cap work, u sugest pay 20 with a cap hit of 15. Thats all great in the first year but but depending on the length of the contract the cap catches up with you and you eventually have to cut guys, Thats why guys that are top quality get released every year for cap issues. If you wanna sign the whole line with bottom heavy contracts near the end of the contracts those players are gone and you start all over again

 

[FearTheBeard]

Read what you said, u said 2 guys for 8 (6 and 3) and you said 2 more for 15 (15-9=6, 6/2=3) 3 guys for 3 and 1 for 6 is what you said. I would sign albert for 7 or 8 and a top gaurd for 5 or 6 and get 2 guys in the draft to compete with current guys on the roster for the start

We could've saved a lot of time if you said you'd bring in 2 guys. All you said was you'd bring in a top OT. And your mock has 3 straight OL so you've hardly made your point clear until now. 2 or 3 is up for debate, I can't fault either side, you seem to be back tracking on what you said earlier. Is investing top money in an injury prone LT really a good idea in your book? I'm just confused because you said you'd bring in 1 guy and draft 3 OL with our first 3 picks. If you're backtracking on what you said fair enough, it didn't make a ton of sense.

For the record this is what I said:
Collins shouldn't cost more than $6m, so in SB's case he has $9m for 3 guys, which is probably 2 above average linemen, and one average-below average guy. In my case I've got $9m for 2 guys, which should net 2 solid guys.

 

[123phins]

We could've saved a lot of time if you said you'd bring in 2 guys. All you said was you'd bring in a top OT. And your mock has 3 straight OL so you've hardly made your point clear until now. 2 or 3 is up for debate, I can't fault either side, you seem to be back tracking on what you said earlier. Is investing top money in an injury prone LT really a good idea in your book? I'm just confused because you said you'd bring in 1 guy and draft 3 OL with our first 3 picks. If you're backtracking on what you said fair enough, it didn't make a ton of sense.

If they can get 3 quality starters in the OL i would still go that route but come draft day 3 starters on the line would be a best case scenario. Yes it is a good idea because he is the best player, in this league any player can get injured on any play so either way whats the difference, and collins would be the 4th choice for me but im gonna assume Monroe resign with BAL and Veldheer re-signs in OAK.

 

[So Be]

I do understand how the cap work, u sugest pay 20 with a cap hit of 15. Thats all great in the first year but but depending on the length of the contract the cap catches up with you and you eventually have to cut guys, Thats why guys that are top quality get released every year for cap issues. If you wanna sign the whole line with bottom heavy contracts near the end of the contracts those players are gone and you start all over again

That's not quite true. You have to project the cap out for at least 3 years, with expiring contracts, projected cap increases, etc, etc. FYI, we are in a time when the TV revenue jumped through the ceiling. We will not see it this year, with a $5M increase, because the NFLPA borrowed against it to stabilize the cap with the new CBA. However, you can expect a huge cap and contract escalation in the next year or two.

That being put aside, although considered, you need to look at the overall cap picture which is VG for the Phins and not be concerned with a few million to put our team in this year's playoffs,

 

[FearTheBeard]

If they can get 3 quality starters in the OL i would still go that route but come draft day 3 starters on the line would be a best case scenario. Yes it is a good idea because he is the best player, in this league any player can get injured on any play so either way whats the difference, and collins would be the 4th choice for me but im gonna assume Monroe resign with BAL and Veldheer re-signs in OAK.

I've keyed in on all 4 for a handful of games and he simply isn't worth the premium price he'll get with his injury history. I agree that Monroe and Veldheer are unlikely to hit the market, and both also have injury histories and will get a big payday. Monroe is younger tho, and is a better rounded OL so he is without a doubt the best option on the market. Veldheer would probably slot in ahead of Albert in my book too. My point is I wouldn't invest in any of them, because while Collins isn't on the same level as them he's better value, against the cap that's a big deal. To say that certain players aren't injury prone isn't accurate, when a guy can't play a full 16 game season (maybe he has 1) for his entire career, I'm not shelling out premium money. When you pay a guy $8-9m for a season, and he gives you 12 games you might as well be paying him $10-12 mil for a full season.

 

[So Be]

We could've saved a lot of time if you said you'd bring in 2 guys. All you said was you'd bring in a top OT. And your mock has 3 straight OL so you've hardly made your point clear until now. 2 or 3 is up for debate, I can't fault either side, you seem to be back tracking on what you said earlier. Is investing top money in an injury prone LT really a good idea in your book? I'm just confused because you said you'd bring in 1 guy and draft 3 OL with our first 3 picks. If you're backtracking on what you said fair enough, it didn't make a ton of sense.

For the record this is what I said:
Collins shouldn't cost more than $6m, so in SB's case he has $9m for 3 guys, which is probably 2 above average linemen, and one average-below average guy. In my case I've got $9m for 2 guys, which should net 2 solid guys.

Just so I am clear here. IF I were going on average contract value, I would have Collins at $7M, 2 OG's at around $5M each, and a vet RT around $3M. The standard first year cap discount is 25% which brings me to my $15M budget for this year.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Just so I am clear here. IF I were going on average contract value, I would have Collins at $7M, 2 OG's at around $5M each, and a vet RT around $3M. The standard first year cap discount is 25% which brings me to my $15M budget for this year.

To my understanding that's correct.

For the record for anyone who doesn't know, great resource:
http://overthecap.com/calculator/?Team=Dolphins

 

[So Be]

I've keyed in on all 4 for a handful of games and he simply isn't worth the premium price he'll get with his injury history. I agree that Monroe and Veldheer are unlikely to hit the market, and both also have injury histories and will get a big payday. Monroe is younger tho, and is a better rounded OL so he is without a doubt the best option on the market. Veldheer would probably slot in ahead of Albert in my book too. My point is I wouldn't invest in any of them, because while Collins isn't on the same level as them he's better value, against the cap that's a big deal. To say that certain players aren't injury prone isn't accurate, when a guy can't play a full 16 game season (maybe he has 1) for his entire career, I'm not shelling out premium money. When you pay a guy $8-9m for a season, and he gives you 12 games you might as well be paying him $10-12 mil for a full season.

I posted a while ago that Albert is in a system that does not throw as much as we do, has a great running game although he is blow average on the run, and that he was protecting a game manager. That's a huge difference in projecting what he may have done last year in Miami.

Your thoughts?

 

[So Be]

To my understanding that's correct.

For the record for anyone who doesn't know, great resource:
http://overthecap.com/calculator/?Team=Dolphins

Jason does great work, and it should be required reading before entering into any salary cap discussion.

 

[123phins]

I've keyed in on all 4 for a handful of games and he simply isn't worth the premium price he'll get with his injury history. I agree that Monroe and Veldheer are unlikely to hit the market, and both also have injury histories and will get a big payday. Monroe is younger tho, and is a better rounded OL so he is without a doubt the best option on the market. Veldheer would probably slot in ahead of Albert in my book too. My point is I wouldn't invest in any of them, because while Collins isn't on the same level as them he's better value, against the cap that's a big deal. To say that certain players aren't injury prone isn't accurate, when a guy can't play a full 16 game season (maybe he has 1) for his entire career, I'm not shelling out premium money. When you pay a guy $8-9m for a season, and he gives you 12 games you might as well be paying him $10-12 mil for a full season.

What if that more expensive guy plays 4 less games but plays 5 better games then a guy for cheaper. Pick your poison If you pay a guy 6 mil gets hurt and he gets hurt and the 9 mil guy plays 16 games. Either way im personally gonna shell out the extra money for the best possible protection

 

[FearTheBeard]

What if that more expensive guy plays 4 less games but plays 5 better games then a guy for cheaper. Pick your poison If you pay a guy 6 mil gets hurt and he gets hurt and the 9 mil guy plays 16 games. Either way im personally gonna shell out the extra money for the best possible protection

Collins has no injury history...if I'm paying a premium my background check tells me the guy can stay healthy. Albert hasn't proven that, and has the same deficiencies in the run game that Collins has. Collins didn't allow a single QB hit or sack all year, so you aren't taking a step down protection wise. They're actually very similar guys, except Collins doesn't have the injury experience or as long a track record. But if you're looking at 2 guys on the field, their play is very similar. Similar play, cheaper contract and no injury history. Sign me up.

 

[FearTheBeard]

I posted a while ago that Albert is in a system that does not throw as much as we do, has a great running game although he is blow average on the run, and that he was protecting a game manager. That's a huge difference in projecting what he may have done last year in Miami.

Your thoughts?

All very fair points. I still think you can plug him in and not worry about Pass Pro. On the field they're very comparable (AC and Fat Al). Collins played 389 passing snaps, allowed just 13 hurries and 1 QB hit. That's not even over a full season since he was getting shifted in and out. By comparison Albert was in protection for 555 snaps, yield 16 hurries, 6 hits and 4 sacks. If you average Collins' #'s over 555 snaps you get 18 hurries, 1 QB hit and 0 sacks.