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Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

The worse thing is this damn storm has slowed the **** down.

Just move your ass and get gone. Storm looking at Monday Night/Tuesday morning
 
Michael Scott said:
Good thing wife, son, and I have bags packed. Think we're gonna do the dip tomorrow if the other models start to agree with the latest ICON. Cat 4 Broward landfall:

exK1apY.gif
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This is about as bad as it gets and what I think I it will do. There is a massive High pressure beginning around the Florida/Georgia border. If that trough doesn't move it will force Dorisn south.
 
Michael Scott said:
Good thing wife, son, and I have bags packed. Think we're gonna do the dip tomorrow if the other models start to agree with the latest ICON. Cat 4 Broward landfall:

exK1apY.gif
Click to expand...
Like I said before (and was mocked by @Vaark ) tomorrow we know a little more.
The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian
is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday,
and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern
Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in
a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the
guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to
challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days,
along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you
can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane.
Click to expand...

It really comes down to timing. If Dorian slows down like Floyd in the late 90s she may actually miss the ridge and Dorian would turn back north. Floyd was racing towards Florida and then slowed down to a crawl and the ridge passed by and right before landfall Floyd turned north.
330px-Floyd_1999_track.png


Also important is
We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models.
Click to expand...

Forecast models are run 4 times a day: 8 pm EDT (0000 UTC), 2 am EDT (0600 UTC) , 8 am EDT (1200 UTC) , and 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC). The dropsonde data was collected and incorporated in the 00Z/0000 UTC/8pm EDT run of the forecast models. Since they run for a few hours they are not included in the latest forecast but will be with the 5am update. A lot of info coming in tomorrow.

But if you want to leave just to be sure (better safe than sorry) you really might want to do that tomorrow. A lot of people might get scared over the weekend and head out plus you probably have the people heading out for the holiday weekend anyways. Technically I would wait until the 5pm update tomorrow. You might have a better idea then where it may head. The margin of error cone will get smaller. The one thing you have going is that the hurricane is extremely small. Hurricane winds are currently only 10-15miles out (Cat 1 winds) and are expected to be only out 30-50 miles. The eye right now is 15 miles in diameter and if the Hurricane stays as compact as predicted the eye probably will be no bigger than 20 miles. So you might be looking at Cat 1 hurricane winds some 40-60 miles from the center. Before I got impact windows I didn't even put shutters up for Cat 1 hurricane force winds. That is just a windy day in Florida. :lol:
But if you are unsure and just want to get the hell out do it after the 11am update. :up:
 
I'm starting to wonder if the hurricane might not impact next week's game. That might make the news of Fitzpatrick starting less on an issue, since the Pats will crush him and hopefully Rosen will get an extra start.
 
Michael Scott said:
Good thing wife, son, and I have bags packed. Think we're gonna do the dip tomorrow if the other models start to agree with the latest ICON. Cat 4 Broward landfall:

exK1apY.gif
Click to expand...

I don't know what this "ICON" is but I don't think its something to take seriously. Take a look at the NHC track and know that the cone of uncertainty really is that. The NHC knows what to get out of the models.

I myself like to use the GFS, UKMET, and the Euro and associated ensembles to give myself a good idea of what the trends are.
 
1567162764761.png

This track has been shown over the last few updates. Landing somewhere on the east coast, a turn north and moving slow through the state. Wind will be very rough for some areas, but the rain and water could be a bigger factor for a larger number of people.
 
As the National Hurricane Center said in a previous discussion: "Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively."

This far out, they can't call where it's going to make landfall within 150 (96 hrs) to 200 (120 hrs) miles.

I'm still pulling for a clean miss of central Broward County.
 
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