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Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

So the gas pretty much is unavailable around my area after yesterdays panic. Now that the storm has slowed I am sure it will be replenished with enough to go around until it draws closer. That being said, like always, if any of you guys coming from down South are running low on fuel or need a top off and none is available, I would be glad to meet you at BJ's to use my membership card to get gas. Usually BJ's is the last to have it available around here. I'm right off I-95 one exit before Daytona, that where the BJ's (Port Orange) is right off the highway ramp.
 
FSU Truth said:
View attachment 23677

This track has been shown over the last few updates. Landing somewhere on the east coast, a turn north and moving slow through the state. Wind will be very rough for some areas, but the rain and water could be a bigger factor for a larger number of people.
Click to expand...
I am quite encouraged by that kick to the north at the very end of the forecast (though still too far out to accurately predict). If Dorian turns out to be really slow it may miss the ridge. Let's see.

adv23_5am.jpg

After day
3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and
Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the
Florida peninsula.
There is more spread among the deterministic
models and their ensemble members during that time, with
disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn
northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5.
Click to expand...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/300854.shtml?

Hopefully it is Floyd all over again.
 
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Daytona Fin said:
So the gas pretty much is unavailable around my area after yesterdays panic. Now that the storm has slowed I am sure it will be replenished with enough to go around until it draws closer. That being said, like always, if any of you guys coming from down South are running low on fuel or need a top off and none is available, I would be glad to meet you at BJ's to use my membership card to get gas. Usually BJ's is the last to have it available around here. I'm right off I-95 one exit before Daytona, that where the BJ's (Port Orange) is right off the highway ramp.
Click to expand...

I thought I was getting a jump on things on Tuesday and picking up water and some other supplies, but everyone seemed to have the same idea. People were taking out full skids of water from Sams Club. I filled up both cars and a few gas cans late last night (when most were sleeping so I hope I am good for a few days. Propane was already full in both tanks. I live just south of Tampa, so my situation is different. Wal-mart were hit hard for water and bread.
 
FSU Truth said:
I thought I was getting a jump on things on Tuesday and picking up water and some other supplies, but everyone seemed to have the same idea. People were taking out full skids of water from Sams Club. I filled up both cars and a few gas cans late last night (when most were sleeping so I hope I am good for a few days. Propane was already full in both tanks. I live just south of Tampa, so my situation is different. Wal-mart were hit hard for water and bread.
Click to expand...
Yes it's just so hard to predict these things, that's why I usually wait it out before getting in too much of panic. Seems like there's always the first wave of gas shortage and grocery store shelf clearing. Then they get restocked again. I think companies like gas and water cease deliveries in other parts of the country and divert supplies to Florida or wherever the storm is headed.

I drove by about 20 gas stations and the lines were backed up at all of them. Publix looked like the day before Thanksgiving with the crowds. Had some friends book a hotel for Sat-Mon, now they have to cancel because storm slowed. Might not make it up this way until Wed possibly Thursday if it stay with models.
 
FSU Truth said:
I thought I was getting a jump on things on Tuesday and picking up water and some other supplies, but everyone seemed to have the same idea. People were taking out full skids of water from Sams Club. I filled up both cars and a few gas cans late last night (when most were sleeping so I hope I am good for a few days. Propane was already full in both tanks. I live just south of Tampa, so my situation is different. Wal-mart were hit hard for water and bread.
Click to expand...
I went yesterday to Publix to get some pet food for my little ones. It was crazy town. Good lordy. Almost like we are under a hurricane watch.
When I was chatting with one of the Publix cashiers she told me that 3/4 of the people will come back and return all that water if they don't use it.
Publix put a sign out now: no more than two 24-pack of water per person.
 
phins_4_ever said:
I went yesterday to Publix to get some pet food for my little ones. It was crazy town. Good lordy. Almost like we are under a hurricane watch.
When I was chatting with one of the Publix cashiers she told me that 3/4 of the people will come back and return all that water if they don't use it.
Publix put a sign out now: no more than two 24-pack of water per person.
Click to expand...

I don't mind buying the water because I will use it at some point.
 
Daytona Fin said:
Yes it's just so hard to predict these things, that's why I usually wait it out before getting in too much of panic. Seems like there's always the first wave of gas shortage and grocery store shelf clearing. Then they get restocked again. I think companies like gas and water cease deliveries in other parts of the country and divert supplies to Florida or wherever the storm is headed.

I drove by about 20 gas stations and the lines were backed up at all of them. Publix looked like the day before Thanksgiving with the crowds. Had some friends book a hotel for Sat-Mon, now they have to cancel because storm slowed. Might not make it up this way until Wed possibly Thursday if it stay with models.
Click to expand...
I usually get all my stuff with the beginning of the hurricane season. Non perishable items I use up after the hurricane season and water I replace as I use it during the season. My preparation is literally 30 minutes.

But you have the weathered Floridian attitude. No panic. Cool and calm. That's how I always have been as well.
 
Damn,..This old boy could cut across Fla. ..back into the Gulf...strengthen..cut up to lower Bama,(ME!!!)...well,doggy..
 
phins_4_ever said:
Then you are part of the 1/4 who doesn't return it. :)

I think it is a very selfish attitude: hog all the supplies and then return them when you are not using them.
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My wife was joking about how she can get by with a water bottle and a 20 OZ diet coke on most days, but for some reason will feel uneasy unless we have enough water to fill the pool. I buy my cases in July and they are good through Hurricane season. I grabbed two more just because.

I am at the point now where I have most supplies already in my utility closet...I grab some meat to throw on the grill and that will get us by. I know there are many that are not in a position to do that so I don't fault the panic, but I do dislike the supply hoarding as you mentioned.
 
11am update.

adv25_11am.jpg


Big question mark remain at the end of the forecast period.

By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.
Click to expand...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml?

It seems like it remains a very compact storm as well.
ORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
Click to expand...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/301448.shtml?

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
Click to expand...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/301448.shtml?
 
FH meteorologists, what do you think the effects will be in West Pines if that track proves accurate?

Have a feeling we're going to get a consensus later this evening, or late tonight.
 
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