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Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

She's not a nice girl and seems to be coming right for us up here
 
Adam First said:
Plenty can still change. Landfall is still not for another 4 days. Feels like eternity already.

Feel like the storm will enter somewhere along the coastline and turn up over the peninsula. All scenarios are on the table right now - storm pushes into the Gulf, storm impacts the East coast, storm curves away before the coast. The problem is that we're still that uncertain. Seeing the latest model run of the European, which curves it off shore, lulls people into a false sense of security. Yesterday the European landfell a major hurricane into West Palm Beach and curved it around Lake Okeechobee. The entirety of the east coast needs to remain vigilant.
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The problem with the models is that none of them has the 100% answer. There are so many variables in determining the strength and direction of a hurricane. The European model is very good at the medium range forecast. It is in its name after all. But long range it lacks at times.
The 4 and 5 day forecast is mostly statistical forecast. That means that the history of hurricanes in similar situation is calculated and a possible long range forecast is made. There is just not enough data available to use the dynamic forecasts which is based on actual data and the environment. That's why the error cone is so large because there is simply not enough data available to make more accurate predictions.

I could see the ECMWF change so dramatically because yesterday the real data was a much more faster Hurricane but today the data is a much slower hurricane. Yesterday the Hurricane moved fast under the ridge and would have beaten the dissipation of the ridge for a landfall. Today the real data is such a slow hurricane that the ridge will move out before the hurricane gets to Florida. Since there is not enough data available the statistical likelihood is that the Hurricane will move along the perimeter of the ridge and lift out with the retraction of the ridge because, statistically, that's what hurricanes do.

One of the advantages is that ECMWF is excellent in short and medium predictions when it comes to the track. That is also a reason why its forecasts often look erratic (like the two examples you just noted).
 
phins_4_ever said:
The problem with the models is that none of them has the 100% answer. There are so many variables in determining the strength and direction of a hurricane. The European model is very good at the medium range forecast. It is in its name after all. But long range it lacks at times.
The 4 and 5 day forecast is mostly statistical forecast. That means that the history of hurricanes in similar situation is calculated and a possible long range forecast is made. There is just not enough data available to use the dynamic forecasts which is based on actual data and the environment. That's why the error cone is so large because there is simply not enough data available to make more accurate predictions.

I could see the ECMWF change so dramatically because yesterday the real data was a much more faster Hurricane but today the data is a much slower hurricane. Yesterday the Hurricane moved fast under the ridge and would have beaten the dissipation of the ridge for a landfall. Today the real data is such a slow hurricane that the ridge will move out before the hurricane gets to Florida. Since there is not enough data available the statistical likelihood is that the Hurricane will move along the perimeter of the ridge and lift out with the retraction of the ridge because, statistically, that's what hurricanes do.

One of the advantages is that ECMWF is excellent in short and medium predictions when it comes to the track. That is also a reason why its forecasts often look erratic (like the two examples you just noted).
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My man.

You work in weather / disaster recovery?

Well said.
 
circumstances said:
Here is my thinking.

I am in Fort Lauderdale (relatively speaking).

Fort Lauderdale is about 26.12N latitude.

Once the storm hits 26.12N latitude, it would have to either be going due West or turn due West (270 degrees) in order for the eye to make landfall in my area.

Once it passes 26.12N latitude it would have to turn back south to get me.

It is currently at 25.3N latitude, 575 miles out to sea.

See where I'm going with this?
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Hurricanes can go towards the south you know. :lol: Andrew is the most famous example.
It hit Florid at 25.4N
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.032

and was a 3 days earlier at 25.9N
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.024

There are more examples but in general you are right. I just like to piss on your "I am free" party (since I was not invited). :lol:
 
phins_4_ever said:
Hurricanes can go towards the south you know. :lol: Andrew is the most famous example.
It hit Florid at 25.4N
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.032

and was a 3 days earlier at 25.9N
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.024

There are more examples but in general you are right. I just like to piss on your "I am free" party (since I was not invited). :lol:
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I know it's POSSIBLE but highly unlikely.

I haven't seen any models showing it moving any further down than 270 degrees (maybe one).
 
CANDolphan said:
My man.

You work in weather / disaster recovery?

Well said.
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I went to "Hurricane School". :lol:

Seriously, I was the MassCare Coordinator Volunteer Side for the Palm Beach County Red Cross Chapter in the 1990s. I changed that program completely. In 1991 I went to a class from one of the NHC forecasters (have to look the name up) how to work the data and how data is collected. I bought the first version of HurrTrak in 1992 which was superior back then. Unfortunately since technology was rather limited back then I had to download the updates manually from a text server/FTP server and manually input every single data.
I was stationed at the Red Cross HQ during the disasters and twice placed with the EOC (Emergency Operations Center) as Red Cross liaison. But I hated it and I was more of a hands on person. I left the bureaucratic BS to those who can handle it and went back to the RC EOC to run the shelter operations, the Action Response teams post disaster and shelter operations post disaster.
When the Red Cross became to corporate (the Red Cross is supposed to be run by volunteers and paid staff was the help and used for day-to-day operations but the National Red Cross changed all that) I left in 2000 and joint FEMAs Hurricane disaster volunteer program. I left FEMA in 2003 when the Patriot Act stripped FEMA of its independence and made it part of DHS.

That is my history in a nutshell.
 
phins_4_ever said:
I went to "Hurricane School". :lol:

Seriously, I was the MassCare Coordinator Volunteer Side for the Palm Beach County Red Cross Chapter in the 1990s. I changed that program completely. In 1991 I went to a class from one of the NHC forecasters (have to look the name up) how to work the data and how data is collected. I bought the first version of HurrTrak in 1992 which was superior back then. Unfortunately since technology was rather limited back then I had to download the updates manually from a text server/FTP server and manually input every single data.
I was stationed at the Red Cross HQ during the disasters and twice placed with the EOC (Emergency Operations Center) as Red Cross liaison. But I hated it and I was more of a hands on person. I left the bureaucratic BS to those who can handle it and went back to the RC EOC to run the shelter operations, the Action Response teams post disaster and shelter operations post disaster.
When the Red Cross became to corporate (the Red Cross is supposed to be run by volunteers and paid staff was the help and used for day-to-day operations but the National Red Cross changed all that) I left in 2000 and joint FEMAs Hurricane disaster volunteer program. I left FEMA in 2003 when the Patriot Act stripped FEMA of its independence and made it part of DHS.

That is my history in a nutshell.
Click to expand...
Max Mayfield!
 
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