Draft Comparisons...Wolf vs Mueller vs Ruskell vs Savage (WARNING BIG)

[ckparrothead]

I'm starting all comparison at 1995. I was going to do it at 1996 but I thought it a little unfair that this would exclude guys like Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks from Tim Ruskell's stats.

Randy Mueller was GM of the Seahawks from 1995 to 1999, the Saints from 2000 to 2002.

Phil Savage was with the Browns in 1995, the Ravens from 1996 to 2002.

I left out 2003 because quite frankly you can't evaluate the guys with only one year under their belt. I was loathe to even do 2002...or even 2001.

I split the players into Winners and Losers. The winners are color coded according to how good they have proven to be or look right now (in the case of the guys with only 2 years under their belt).

Purple: Purple stands for near legendary...best of the best, dominant at their position.
Blue: Blue stands for playing at a pro bowl level pretty consistently (not necessarily a pro bowler).
Green: Green stands for a guy that has been a contributor for a good amount of time and been not dominant but good before.
Yellow: Yellow stands for guys who have started and played fairly well at their positions and didn't embarrass themselves, guys who have flashed onto the national spotlight once or twice but probably didn't do it consistently.

FIRST ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: TE Bubba Franks (2000 #14), DB Antuan Edwards (1999 #24), DL Vonnie Holliday (1998 #19), OG Ross Verba (1997 #30)
The Losers: OT John Michels (1996 #27), DB Craig Newsome (1995 #32)
Total Picks: 7

Randy Mueller
The Winners: WR Donte Stallworth (2002 #13), DE Charles Grant (2002 #25), RB Deuce McCallister (2001 #23), DE Lamar King (1999 #22), LB Anthony Simmons (1998 #15), CB Shawn Springs (1997 #3), OT Walter Jones (1997 #6), OG Pete Kendall (1996 #21), WR Joey Galloway (1995 #8)
The Losers: None
Total Picks: 9

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: DT Anthony McFarland (1999 #15), RB Warrick Dunn (1997 #12), DE Regan Upshaw (1996 #12), DE Marcus Jones (1996 #22), DT Warren Sapp (1995 #12), LB Derrick Brooks (1995 #28).
The Losers: OT Kenyatta Walker (2001), WR Reidel Anthony (1997).
Total Picks: 8

Phil Savage
The Winners: S Ed Reed (2002), TE Todd Heap (2001), RB Jamal Lewis (2000), WR Travis Taylor (2000), CB Chris McAlister (1999), CB Duane Starks (1998), [color=1997]DE/LB Peter Boulware[/color] (1997), OT Jonathon Ogden (1996), LB Ray Lewis (1996).
The Losers: LB Craig Powell (1995)
Total Picks: 10

SECOND ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: OT Chad Clifton (2000), S Darren Sharper (1997), KR/PR Derrick Mayes (1996).
The Losers: CB Fred Vinson (1999)
Total Picks: 4

Randy Mueller
The Winners: OG LeCharles Bentley (2002), DE Darren Howard (2000), OT Todd Weiner (1998), CB Fred Thomas (1996), TE Christian Fauria (1995).
The Losers: None
Total Picks: 5

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: OG Cosey Coleman (2000), QB Shaun King (1999), CB Brian Kelly (1998), OT Jerry Wunsch (1997), FB Mike Alstott (1996)
The Losers: WR Jacquez Green (1998), DB Melvin Johnson (1995)
Total Picks: 7

Phil Savage
The Winners: DE Anthony Weaver (2002), CB Gary Baxter (2001), WR Patrick Johnson (1998), LB Jamie Sharper (1997), S Kim Herring (1997)
The Losers: DB DeRon Jenkins (1996)
Total Picks: 6

THIRD ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: CB Mike McKenzie (1999), DL Cletidus Hunt (1999), K Brett Conway (1997), C Mike Flanagan (1996), CB Tyrone Williams 1996, FB William Henderson (1995), LB Brian Williams, WR Antonio Freeman (1995), DT Darius Holland (1995)
The Losers: Steve Warren (2000), DE Jonathon Brown (1998)
Total Picks: 11

Randy Mueller
The Winners: LB Sedrick Hodge (2001), RB Ahman Green (1998)
The Losers: LB James Allen (2002), DT Kenny Smith (2001), QB Brock Huard (1999), WR Karsten Bailey (1999), OT Robert Barr (1996), RB Reggie Brown (1996)
Total Picks: 8

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: DB Dwight Smith (2001), LB Nate Webster (2000), K Martin Gramatica (1999), LB Jamie Duncan (1998), OL Frank Middleton (1997), CB Ronde Barber (1997), CB Donnie Abraham (1996).
The Losers: WR Marquis Walker (2002)
Total Picks: 8

Phil Savage
The Winners: None
The Losers: C Casey Rabach (2001), QB Chris Redman (2000), RB Jay Graham (1997), QB Eric Zeier (1995), DE Mike Frederick (1995)
Total Picks: 5

FOURTH ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: LB Na'il Diggs (2000), QB Aaron Brooks (1999), P Josh Bidwell (1999)
The Losers: WR Anthony Lucas (2000), DB Gary Berry (2000), DB Roosevelt Blackmon (1998), DT Jermaine Smith (1997), RB Chris Darkins (1996), OT Jeff Miller (1995)
Total Picks: 9

Randy Mueller
The Winners: FB Terrelle Smith (2000), DE Phillip Daniels (1996).
The Losers: DB Keyuo Craver (2002), RB Moran Norris (2001), DE Antonio Cochran (1999), LB Deshone Myles (1998), LB Eric Unverzagt (1996), LB Jason Kyle (1995).
Total Picks: 8

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: S Dexter Jackson (1999), C Todd Washington (1998), LB Alshermond Singleton (1997).
The Losers: RB Travis Stephens (2002), DB John Howell (2001), OT Jason Odom (1996), DB Eric Austin (1996), DB Jerry Wilson (1995).
Total Picks: 8

Phil Savage
The Winners: P Dave Zastudil (2002), LB Edgerton Hartwell (2001), WR Brandon Stokley (1999), OG Edwin Mulitalo (1999)
The Losers: WR Ron Johnson (2002), LB Tyrus McCloud (1997)
Total Picks: 6

FIFTH ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (2000), WR Corey Bradford (1998).
The Losers: WR Joey Jamison (2000), RB DeMond Parker (1999), C Craig Heimburger (1999), LB Anthony Hicks (1997), RB Travis Jervery (1995)
Total Picks: 7

Randy Mueller
The Winners: RB Chad Morton (2000)
The Losers: DB Mel Mitchell (2002), WR Onomoe Ojo (2001), OT Tutan Reyes (2000), TE Austin Wheatley (2000), OT Floyd Wedderburn (1999), RB Charlie Rogers (1999), WR Eric Stokes (1997)
Total Picks: 8

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: None
The Losers: DB Jermaine Phillips (2002), OG Russ Hochstein (2001), TE James Whalen (2000), TE Patrick Hape (1997), DT Jason Maniecki (1996), DB Clifton Abraham (1995).
Total Picks: 6

Phil Savage
The Winners: C Jeff Mitchell (1997), KR/PR Jermaine Lewis (1996)
The Losers: TE Terry Jones Jr. (2002), RB Chris Barnes (2001), OG Richard Mercier (2000), DT Martin Chase (1998), DB Ryan Sutter (1998), WR Mike Miller (1995), DT Tau Papua (1995)
Total Picks: 9

SIXTH ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: QB Matt Hasselback (1998), OG Marco Rivera (1996)
The Losers: WR Dee Miller (1999), OG Scott Curry (1999), S Scott McGarrahan (1998), WR Charlie Simmons (1995)
Total Picks: 6

Randy Mueller
The Winners: QB Mark Bulger, WR Bobby Shaw (1998), TE Itula Mili.
The Losers: QB J.T. O'Sullivan (2002), TE John Gilmore (2002), OT Mitch White (2001), DB Michael Hawthorne (2000), WR Sherrod Gideon (2000), DB Steve Johnson (1999), DT Carl Hansen (1998), OG Reggie Green (1996), DB T.J. Cunningham (1996), DT Henry McMillan (1995), WR Eddie Goines (1995)
Total Picks: 14

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: DE Ellis Wyms (2001), CB Al Harris (1997).
The Losers: DE John Stamper (2002), FB Jameel Cook (2001), DB David Gibson (2000), RB Lamar Glenn (1999), DT James Cannida (1998), DB Shevin Smith (1998), WR Nigea Carter (1997), WR Nilo Silvan (1996), LB Wardell Rouse (1995).
Total Picks: 11

Phil Savage
The Winners: KR/PR Lamont Brightful (2002), LB Adalius Thomas (2000).
The Losers: WR Javin Hunter (2002), RB Chester Taylor (2002), DB Chad Williams (2002), C Joe Maese (2001), DT Cedric Woodward (2000), LB Ron Rogers (1998), OT Sammy Williams (1998), RB Steve Lee (1997), DE Cornell Brown (1997), LB Dexter Daniels (1996), WR James Roe (1996),
Total Picks: 13

SEVENTH ROUND

Ron Wolf
The Winners: OT Mark Tauscher (2000), WR Charles Lee (2000), WR Donald Driver (1999), FB Jerald Sowell (1997), DE Keith McKenzie (1996), OG Adam Timmerman (1995)
The Losers: DT Ron Moore (2000), LB Eugene McCaslin (2000), RB Rondell Mealey (2000), DB Chris Akins (1999), RB Edwin Watson (1998), WR Chris Miller (1997), QB Ronnie McAda (1997), QB Kyle Wachholtz (1996).
Total Picks: 14

Randy Mueller
The Winners: None
The Losers: DE Derrius Monroe (2002), DT Ennis Davis (2001), TE Kevin Houser (2000), OT Jason McEndoo (1998), DB Carlos Jones (1997), DE Johnny Church (1996), DE Keif Bryant (1995).
Total Picks: 6

Tim Ruskell
The Winners: CB Tim Wansley (2002)
The Losers: TE Tracey Wistrom (2002), WR Aaron Lockett (2002), C Zack Quaccia (2002), TE Dauntae Finger (2001), DB Than Merrill (2001), DE Joe Tafoya (2001), QB Joe Hamilton (2000), WR Darnell McDonald (1999), DE Chance McCarty (1998), DT Anthony DeGrate (1997), DB Reggie Rusk (1996), OG Steve Ingram (1995), DE Jeffrey Rogers (1995).
Total Picks: 16

Phil Savage
The Winners: None
The Losers: QB Wes Pate (2002), DE Dwayne Missouri (2001), DB Anthony Poindexter (1999), TE Cam Quayle (1998), DE Chris Ward (1997), QB Wally Richardson (1997), LB Ralph Staten (1997), DT Leland Taylor (1997), QB Jon Stark (1996), WR A.C. Tellison (1995)
Total Picks: 10

ANALYSIS

Ron Wolf Analysis
Total Purple: 1 (1.8% Chance Drafting a Purple or Better)
Total Blue: 11 (21% Chance Drafting a Blue or Better)
Total Green: 8 (35.1% Chance Drafting a Green or Better)
Total Yellow: 9 (50.1% Chance Drafting a Yellow or Better)
Total Winners: 29
Total Losers: 28
Total Picks: 57
Percentage of Draft Made up of 6th or 7th Rounders: 35%

Randy Mueller Analysis
Total Purple: 1 (1.7% Chance Drafting a Purple or Better)
Total Blue: 8 (15% Chance Drafting a Blue or Better)
Total Green: 5 (23.3% Chance Drafting a Green or Better)
Total Yellow: 9 (38.3% Chance Drafting a Yellow or Better)
Total Winners: 23
Total Losers: 37
Total Picks: 60
Percentage of Draft Made up of 6th or 7th Rounders: 33%

Tim Ruskell
Total Purple: 3 (4.7% Chance Drafting a Purple or Better)
Total Blue: 3 (9.3% Chance Drafting a Blue or Better)
Total Green: 7 (20.3% Chance Drafting a Green or Better)
Total Yellow: 11 (37.5% Chance Drafting a Yellow or Better)
Total Winners: 24
Total Losers: 40
Total Picks: 64
Percentage of Draft Made up of 6th or 7th Rounders: 42%

Phil Savage
Total Purple: 3 (5.1% Chance Drafting a Purple or Better)
Total Blue: 6 (15.3% Chance Drafting a Blue or Better)
Total Green: 5 (23.7% Chance Drafting a Green or Better)
Total Yellow: 8 (37.3% Chance Drafting a Yellow or Better)
Total Winners: 22
Total Losers: 37
Total Picks: 59
Percentage of Draft Made up of 6th or 7th Rounders: 39%

 

[Jaj]

Now this is something I will need to put in my favorites file.

 

[Can we win a SB]

So does this mean that Tim Ruskell evaluates players better , compared to these guys.. i highly agree if he is the GM.. thanks for this infor anywayz

 

[PhinsTD]

Ronde Barber is not a purple player if you classify it as near legendary.

How can you include 2002 QB's like JT O'Sullivan? He made the team and still hasn't been given a chance to establish himself with Brooks ahead of him.

I'd say a nice job of evaluating overall, but this fails to take into consideration the place the player was drafted. I'd love to see a ratio of how they did with the 20th pick compared to the 5th pick.

They should have a higher ratio of getting a so-called purple player with the 5th pick compared to the 20th pick.

 

[Jaj]

Problem with this is that CK you cannot put alot of the guys drafted in the 2002 year, you just can't. Ron Wolf has a huge advantage here. FA must be included. By the way wasn't Meuller fired by draft day.

I mean he traded Ricky before the draft and then got fired very shortly after.

 

[Disgustipate]

I think this should be stickied.

 

[Cranx]

Nice work CK, you must have had some SERIOUS time on your hands for this one. Thanks from all of us. :up:

 

[ckparrothead]

After looking at them I have to conclude that they have different styles, strengths, and weaknesses.

But one thing stands out and that is why Ron Wolf is considered the master. Its not Huizenga being a name-whore or something. His record speaks for itself. The man not only has a good rep as far as trading and free agency goes, but he is a really really good drafter. It was a good 50% chance that he'd draft someone that ended up contributing in some way....from yellow, green, blue, and purple to use my own categories. He may not have drafted a bunch of super dominant guys at their position like Ruskell or Savage, but he has found blue chippers in just about every round.

Savage as expected did most of his good drafting in the first round, and most everything else was a bust. But he's got to get some credit for the fact that he managed to get super stars like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Jonathon Ogden...just as Ruskell has to get credit for gettin guys like Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, and Ronde Barber....along with Booger McFarland and others like him.

Ron Wolf: Picks good guys up and down the draft but isn't 100% solid on his 1st round picks. Reminds me of JJ but his results are overall still better than like everyone else in the picture...a lot like JJ.

Randy Mueller: He's like a lesser Ron Wolf in that he doesn't pick a lot of completely dominant guys but he does get contributors. Big difference though is that he hits on his first and second round picks almost always, but he seems to start taking a lot of chances starting with the 3rd round. He seems to like LBers in the 3rd and it hasn't seemed to work out for him. He doesn't really seem to have a lot of success in the late rounds finding gems with the exception of Marc Bulger.

Tim Ruskell: Will hit super big and not necessarily in the 1st round either. He seems to draft really well in the top 4 rounds, good in the first round, not so good in the second round, but solid in the third and fourth...but he's had a LOT of late round picks to find some diamonds in the rough and he hasn't found hardly any.

Phil Savage: Will also hit super big but if its not the first round, forget about it. He doesn't even get many blue chippers if its not the first round. The 7th round is lost on him, the 5th and 6th all but lost on him, but he seems to do well in the 4th with an evening to evaluate who went too far down the boards and who they should go after soon as the second day starts. The third round is a big weakness for him, he might have trouble keeping track of all the action on the first round. But man can he hit on first round picks when he's got tons of time to do his homework and get the priorities straight without the frenzy of draft day taking too much toll on his plans.

 

[ckparrothead]

If Randy Mueller did not take part in the 2002 draft then you should tell some of the local media that as well because they have listed Charles Grant as one of his accomplishments.

As for the 2002 guys I told you that I did not want to include them but you also want the guys to get credit for good guys selected in those drafts.

By now 2002 guys have had two seasons to get evaluated, and i feel thats enough. Savage NEEDS to be given credit for drafting a guy like Ed Reed, and Mueller needs to be given credit for guys like Charles Grant and LeCharles Bentley who have proven to be quite good actually.

If anything I think this is biased in favor of Ruskell, Mueller, and Savage because I have a tendancy to give good ratings to recent draft guys that have contributed. Heck Lamont Brightfull could be out of the league by next year and we never hear of him again and in that case I wouldn't give him the yellow but in this case I do because this is where it looks like they will be goin. If I rated guys after 2000, I would have had Todd Wade at a blue, but now I would have him as a green.

Ronde Barber is a consistent pro bowler and one of the dominant players at his position. His contract is/will be HUGE. Get over it.

 

[canesandphins1]

FANTASTIC INFO

the best thing i have seen on this site since i have joined :jawdrop:

 

[Amin]

Much respect to CK for the tremendous amount of work he did on this.

Looking through Ron Wolf's drafts, it obvious he had a tremendous knack for findin talent, altho I do find it funny that Ahman Green was drafted by Mueller but is now thriving with all the excellent OL picks of Ron Wolf.

Outta curiosity, I'm good friends with Torrance Marshall who was drafted by the Packers in the 3rd round of 2001. I didn't see his name listed, is there any reason for that?? I know he's not starting out there, but he's my boy, show him some love...

 

[Shula Fan]

CK...you put your foot in this one. Good Job. I really mean job. Maybe you need to throw your name in the GM mix.

Someone call Jones and Wayne

Again, Good job man.

 

[lynchmobb34]

First off ,i must say very nice job,this is a very solid post.It gives everyone an idea of what we are looking at for the future,and what kind of people this team wants to bring in to get us to the next level.That said, it looks to me that Phil Savage is the guy i want us to get.He has made some very good picks in the first round,and as everyone knows thats where the fins have the most need.They need someone who can evaluate 1st round talent,i for one dont want to see this team blow another first round pick, AGAIN.This Tim Ruskell guy has made some solid selections also,but i think this team will go WR in the first round(barring some huge trade up for Eli,or Ben)and judging from WR's he has chose in the past:
---1st Reidel Anthony--97
---2nd Jacquez Green--98
---3rd Marquis Walker--02
---6th Nigea Carter--97,Nilo Silvan--96,James Roe--96
---7th Aaron Lockett--02,Darnell McDonald--99
this not the type of guy we would want to bring in here,its not just WR either,the only offenseive guys he has drafted with any kind of credibility is Warrick Dunn,Mike Allstott,and Shawn King.he has drafted some great defensive players,but thats one thing this team does not need,more defense.i guess what im trying to get at is if i had a choice to pick the next GM,it would have to be Savage.

 

[MARLINSFAN305]

More reason we should go after Savage. From todays Palm Beach Post

Nearly 75 percent of the players Baltimore has drafted since 1997 still are in the NFL. And there are 11 present or former Ravens Savage had a hand in drafting that are on the 2004 Pro Bowl team or listed as alternate. "Phil is definitely qualified," Ravens General Manager and Executive Vice President Ozzie Newsome said at Baltimore camp Tuesday. "The success we've had as an organization and our ability to acquire talent has been a direct product of Phil."

 

[SWS84]

Excellent Job!

Steve