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Draft Value: Trading 5 for 3

The Bopkin

The Bopkin

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I am sorry if this belongs in the draft forum, but with all the talk about Tua I thought I'd post it here)
So I have seen a lot of proposed trades from our 5 to 3 for Detroit's pick...If you look at JJ's chart, sending the 26th pick valued at 700 actually is a little pricey to move from 5 to 3.
Detroit's #3 is at 2200 while the #5 is 1700, giving us a 200 point deficit. How would you, if you wanted to jump from 5 to 3, handle that discrepancy?
Our #39 is worth 510.
In mathematical fairness, a proper deal according to the chart would be our 5 + our 39 for Detroit's number three. (5 valued at 1700 + 39 valued at 510 = 2210), ...almost perfect value for Detroit's 3. I'd do that trade in a New york minute.
What does everybody think?
 
I think thats the basis of all the mock draft guys are using. But come time to actually move the price will be higher because it is very clear Miami wants a QB and well thats top of the market pricing. At that point I think #26 is fair to move up and I think the Redskins move is going to be #5,18 and 70. I do not quite understand at this time why people think it will take all 3 1st and a 1st next year to move up 3 spots. I will totally admit I am wrong if it happens; save this if need be.
 
OmegaPhinsFan said:
If you have 4-5 teams wanting that pick, do you really think the draft chart makes a difference?
Click to expand...

And even if there's just one team, the team considering a bid will also consider the degree of desperation (e.g., Ditka). That's why there are trades above chart value and trades below chart value. That's one reason Miami is already active. Testing the waters. Getting a feel for the cost and opportunity.

But, the OP's question is concerning chart value exclusively. In that scenario, not a bad deal. If we only knew Flo's opinion.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
And even if there's just one team, the team considering a bid will also consider the degree of desperation (e.g., Ditka). That's why there are trades above chart value and trades below chart value. That's one reason Miami is already active. Testing the waters. Getting a feel for the cost and opportunity.

But, the OP's question is concerning chart value exclusively. In that scenario, not a bad deal. If we only knew Flo's opinion.
Click to expand...
here is the bottom line, If MIami wants him, no one will out-bid them.
 
If all medical reports come back with positive news on Tua, I think the chart gets thrown out of the window.

As alluded to above, if several teams are competing for a trade, the chart gets thrown out of the window.

I can live with the 26th and the Saint's #2 to go up for Tua without blowing my head off. I'd rather not extra-gamble away picks but I wouldn't drink myself to death either.

This is all moot because mark my words and mark them well, Tua will fall to 5.
 
OmegaPhinsFan said:
here is the bottom line, If MIami wants him, no one will out-bid them.
Click to expand...

Just a tweak. Miami, like every team, will have a top amount their willing to give. Any team below that number, you're right. A team above that number, Miami will be out-bid.
 
OmegaPhinsFan said:
If you have 4-5 teams wanting that pick, do you really think the draft chart makes a difference?
Click to expand...
Fair point; but I would also say that if Detroit trades down(let's say the Raiders offer 2 number ones...) they are dropping out of range for Akudah, Brown, and probably Simmons unless they want to trade back up again. If I am Detroit, in win-now mode, I am drafting a plug and play guy from round one that is going to help me win. Past number 5, Detroit now risks losing out on that stud defender. I think if Detroit is smart, take what WE offer- they're still coming out ahead a premium pick- they get what they want, and still get the top D player. If they get cute and try to take advantage of us, we can say no and then what is Detroit going to do? Sure, take someone else's picks, but they are out of range of that elite draftee.
 
Bopkin02 said:
I am sorry if this belongs in the draft forum, but with all the talk about Tua I thought I'd post it here)
So I have seen a lot of proposed trades from our 5 to 3 for Detroit's pick...If you look at JJ's chart, sending the 26th pick valued at 700 actually is a little pricey to move from 5 to 3.
Detroit's #3 is at 2200 while the #5 is 1700, giving us a 200 point deficit. How would you, if you wanted to jump from 5 to 3, handle that discrepancy?
Our #39 is worth 510.
In mathematical fairness, a proper deal according to the chart would be our 5 + our 39 for Detroit's number three. (5 valued at 1700 + 39 valued at 510 = 2210), ...almost perfect value for Detroit's 3. I'd do that trade in a New york minute.
What does everybody think?
Click to expand...
If Tua becomes a genuine franchise QB, it's not too pricey. If Tua doesn't and Justin Herbert ultimately becomes a franchise QB, yes it's too pricey. The key parameter to determine is the perceived talent variance between Tua and Herbert.
 
Bopkin02 said:
I am not busting your balls at all, but I would like to know why you think/believe/how you know this so early in the process.
Click to expand...

I think Tua will scare away teams from leaping us despite positive reports. It's just a gut feeling.

Plus, it's about time we get lucky. We've stepped up to the plate so many times striking out on fortune that we're bound to hit a home run.

I go hard on those that blindly want Tua but I want him too. I just don't want to pay for him and possibly pay dearly if other teams are not scared away. It be like participating in an auction for a fancy car that had its chassis rebuilt.

It's just a silly gut feeling. Heck, I'm even worried that in such a scenario, Grier would be scared away as well and Tua may continue to fall.

It is because so many are certain Tua is still going so high that I'm betting the devils advocate. Everyone likes to think they are geniuses but mainly end up being completely wrong.

So everyone is zigging, I'm gonna turn left. "The saying is zagging." Exactly. I'm way out the box.

Plus, I'm not too crazy. There are mock drafts out there predicting Tua falls to us.
 
Bopkin02 said:
I am sorry if this belongs in the draft forum, but with all the talk about Tua I thought I'd post it here)
So I have seen a lot of proposed trades from our 5 to 3 for Detroit's pick...If you look at JJ's chart, sending the 26th pick valued at 700 actually is a little pricey to move from 5 to 3.
Detroit's #3 is at 2200 while the #5 is 1700, giving us a 200 point deficit. How would you, if you wanted to jump from 5 to 3, handle that discrepancy?
Our #39 is worth 510.
In mathematical fairness, a proper deal according to the chart would be our 5 + our 39 for Detroit's number three. (5 valued at 1700 + 39 valued at 510 = 2210), ...almost perfect value for Detroit's 3. I'd do that trade in a New york minute.
What does everybody think?
Click to expand...


I think with high rd1 picks, the value charts are less relevant than later in the draft. I also thing they are less relevant when talking about a potential "franchise" QB, than with other positions.

Then there is the aforementioned desperation factor with some teams.

I don't think we are one of those. I hope not, because that is how you get bent over the pool table.
 
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