Draft Value: Trading 5 for 3 | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Draft Value: Trading 5 for 3

Fin-Loco said:
They are Redkins though right? Thinking they are going to take Tua?
Click to expand...

It's not that I think they'll take Tua. It's I have no idea what they'll do. Haskins didn't set the league on fire and it's not unusual for a new HC to want a new QB. As of now, if I had to guess, I'd say 'no idea.'
 
Mach2 said:
I think with high rd1 picks, the value charts are less relevant than later in the draft. I also thing they are less relevant when talking about a potential "franchise" QB, than with other positions.

Then there is the aforementioned desperation factor with some teams.

I don't think we are one of those. I hope not, because that is how you get bent over the pool table.
Click to expand...
we aren't desperate for a qb? did you see the last season?
 
Manning said:
I just hope they don’t outbid themselves
Click to expand...
If they are smart, it wont be about outbidding.

I'm not in favor of moving up, but if that is the choice, they should have a max offer in mind before hand. Once the cost exceeds that, walk away.

In any negotiation, from buying a car, to a billion dollar real estate deal, if you aren't willing to walk you get screwed.
 
Last edited:
Bopkin02 said:
I am sorry if this belongs in the draft forum, but with all the talk about Tua I thought I'd post it here)

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com
So I have seen a lot of proposed trades from our 5 to 3 for Detroit's pick...If you look at JJ's chart, sending the 26th pick valued at 700 actually is a little pricey to move from 5 to 3.
Detroit's #3 is at 2200 while the #5 is 1700, giving us a 200 point deficit. How would you, if you wanted to jump from 5 to 3, handle that discrepancy?
Our #39 is worth 510.
In mathematical fairness, a proper deal according to the chart would be our 5 + our 39 for Detroit's number three. (5 valued at 1700 + 39 valued at 510 = 2210), ...almost perfect value for Detroit's 3. I'd do that trade in a New york minute.
What does everybody think?
Click to expand...


The trade value chart, in its most proper form, is just a visual tool to assign a point value to a pick. It’s usage is much more prevalent for preliminaries and predictions rather than actual transactions.

Things like Supply and Demand and actual high end talent available plays a much bigger role than assigned point values.

Take 2013 for example. That draft was as weak as it gets. That being the case, Miami was able to move from 12 to 3 for just a 2nd round pick. Using the chart they got a 2200 point pick for the price of a combo of 1680 points in picks. The demand for the third pick was not as there was no QB taken in the top 15.

This draft some are predicting as many as 5 QBs in the top 15 and a minimum of 3 in the top 5. When potential future franchise QBs are involved, demand is escalated. I am not saying throw the chart out, but its role in this type of draft is pretty much non existent.

Miami’s biggest challenge is finding a balance of securing their guy without bidding against themselves at some point. But if there is a QB they covet to be a franchise changer, overbidding is a small price to pay in exchange for security. The worst outcome is coming up short with your bid while another team comes strong.
 
OmegaPhinsFan said:
we aren't desperate for a qb? did you see the last season?
Click to expand...
I hope not desperate enough to do something stupid.

Some fans are desperate. The degree of desperation varies.

I don't think Flo/Grier are "desperate" to the point of being locked in on any one scenario or guy.

I do believe they take a rd1 QB.
 
Mach2 said:
If they are smart, it wont be about outbidding.

I'm not in favor of moving up, but if that is the choice, they should have a max offer in mind before hand. One the cost exceeds that, walk away.

In any negotiation, from buying a car, to a billion dollar real estate deal, if you aren't willing to walk
Click to expand...

Old business school professor, . . . the hungriest person in a negotiation is going to lose. Pretty accurate philosophy
 
Kdawg954 said:
The trade value chart, in its most proper form, is just a visual tool to assign a point value to a pick. It’s usage is much more prevalent for preliminaries and predictions rather than actual transactions.

Things like Supply and Demand and actual high end talent available plays a much bigger role than assigned point values.

Take 2013 for example. That draft was as weak as it gets. That being the case, Miami was able to move from 12 to 3 for just a 2nd round pick. Using the chart they got a 2200 point pick for the price of a combo of 1680 points in picks. The demand for the third pick was not as there was no QB taken in the top 15.

This draft some are predicting as many as 5 QBs in the top 15 and a minimum of 3 in the top 5. When potential future franchise QBs are involved, demand is escalated. I am not saying throw the chart out, but its role in this type of draft is pretty much non existent.

Miami’s biggest challenge is finding a balance of securing their guy without bidding against themselves at some point. But if there is a QB they covet to be a franchise changer, overbidding is a small price to pay in exchange for security. The worst outcome is coming up short with your bid while another team comes strong.
Click to expand...

depends on how much that 'overbid' is
 
fansinceGWilson said:
depends on how much that 'overbid' is
Click to expand...

I think trading both Tunsil first round picks (along with the 5 pick) is very much an overbid, but validated if it secures you the QB you covet. I do not believe anybody else comes that strong. That would be my personal max offer in this scenario if running the team and one of these QBs is “my must have”.

The assumption out there is that this is Miami’s thought process, I am less sure of that, than others, that this is truly the case, but certainly wouldn’t be a bad approach if it secures your guy.

Free agency will do more to putting pieces to the puzzle than any of this combine stuff will offer.
 
Kdawg954 said:
I think trading both Tunsil first round picks (along with the 5 pick) is very much an overbid, but validated if it secures you the QB you covet. I do not believe anybody else comes that strong. That would be my personal max offer in this scenario if running the team and one of these QBs is “my must have”.

The assumption out there is that this is Miami’s thought process, I am less sure of that, than others, that this is truly the case, but certainly wouldn’t be a bad approach if it secures your guy.

Free agency will do more to putting pieces to the puzzle than any of this combine stuff will offer.
Click to expand...
I'd try and give up 56# instead of next year's houston 1st... Especially Detroit might be inclined to bite since they're in win now mode...
 
NBP81 said:
I'd try and give up 56# instead of next year's houston 1st... Especially Detroit might be inclined to bite since they're in win now mode...
Click to expand...

Agreed, I was using the 2 Tunsil picks as more of a last ditch max offer. Tua presumably the guy they covet and he is available by just pulling the trigger, Lions on the clock and other compensation offers fell through. It would sting, but hearing “The Miami Dolphins select Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama” and the war room going nuts would make the hurt go away real quick. That would be the only moment in which I for sure know that they had a target and they got their guy.

I would hope the #26, a second and maybe a day 3 pick would be suffice.

But we are giving up a first . . . No doubt about it.
 
Teams are reported to use a revised trade value model in recent years, as discussed by Bill Belichick. Drafttek provides an alternate trade value model, developed by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit, which we believe more accurately reflect the trades of the past several years: - DraftTek.com

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=mia

“I would say that, in general, the trades over the last several years for the most part have been, let’s call them within 5 to 10 percent, pretty equitable trades,” Belichick said. “So, for you to have a chart that’s different than the other 31 charts isn’t really that productive because now we’re just arguing about which chart - Bill Belichick

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...lichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom