Evaluating the value of the RB position | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Evaluating the value of the RB position

NBP81 said:
I think a guy that can contribute ~ 75+ catches a season in the passing game can certainly be drafted earlier than a pure rushing RB. Kind of like drafting a pass rushing DT in the first is more favorable than drafting a run stopping one...
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I would agree as a general principle but in practice, if a team is looking for one type, why draft the other at all?

A player's value is somewhat scheme/ philosophy specific. That's the conundrum GMs are forced to face. You want a player, but will he be there?

There are so many moving parts on draft weekend, flexibility in plan is key.

I don't mind taking a guy a half round "early", if Flo/Grier have a strong conviction. The way the league seemingly looks at the RB position though, I see very few scenarios where taking one RD would be necessary.
 
Impressive amount of work put into that post. Well done.

I do think most of the arguments highlight the foolishness of offering any running back a large second contract. The diminishing returns and injury risk in years 5-8 have been well documented and its hard to see any of those recent contracts paying off.

When I comes to the draft though I don't think you can make decisions based on historical bust rates or relative production. Elliot, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Chubb.....all have provided more than you would get from your typical first round pick over the course of their rookie deal. If you think you can find a player that will provide 4-5 yrs of production at that level you take him, whether its the 20th or 200th pick. No GM can afford to think about what a skill position player will be a decade from now.
 
Ferretsquig said:
Impressive amount of work put into that post. Well done.

I do think most of the arguments highlight the foolishness of offering any running back a large second contract. The diminishing returns and injury risk in years 5-8 have been well documented and its hard to see any of those recent contracts paying off.

When I comes to the draft though I don't think you can make decisions based on historical bust rates or relative production. Elliot, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Chubb.....all have provided more than you would get from your typical first round pick over the course of their rookie deal. If you think you can find a player that will provide 4-5 yrs of production at that level you take him, whether its the 20th or 200th pick. No GM can afford to think about what a skill position player will be a decade from now.
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Its not that you cant find good RBs in the first... The problem is that the rookie wage scale already pays top RB money early in the draft... There's no margin for error, and absolutely no way you're getting a discount from your draft pick.
 
Ferretsquig said:
Impressive amount of work put into that post. Well done.

I do think most of the arguments highlight the foolishness of offering any running back a large second contract. The diminishing returns and injury risk in years 5-8 have been well documented and its hard to see any of those recent contracts paying off.

When I comes to the draft though I don't think you can make decisions based on historical bust rates or relative production. Elliot, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Chubb.....all have provided more than you would get from your typical first round pick over the course of their rookie deal. If you think you can find a player that will provide 4-5 yrs of production at that level you take him, whether its the 20th or 200th pick. No GM can afford to think about what a skill position player will be a decade from now.
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Yeah, but one of the points was that 1st round RB's have the highest bust rate of any offensive position. Only 1 guy you mentioned was a first rounder.
 
TheRevoltingBlob said:
Yeah, but one of the points was that 1st round RB's have the highest bust rate of any offensive position. Only 1 guy you mentioned was a first rounder.
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From the research I've done on the subject, RBs have a lower "Elite" hit rate than most positions, a better "Good" hit rate than all positions, an average "Jag" hit rate and a bottom half "Bust" hit rate.
 
NBP81 said:
From the research I've done on the subject, RBs have a lower "Elite" hit rate than most positions, a better "Good" hit rate than all positions, an average "Jag" hit rate and a bottom half "Bust" hit rate.
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Their standard was simply "dependable starter" to determine if a player was a bust or not. You can click on the source link and let me know if it matches what you've seen.

I wish I had cited my papers this well back in college 😞
 
Teams can get that 5th year option on a first round rb I’m sure that weighed into kcs decision with Edwards helaire last year.

however if a guys really legit they usually get extensions prior to that 5th year anyways or force the teams hand for them at least. Making it kind of a null incentive

I’m in the pick 50 at least rb category myself but like last year I think it’s not gonna take long on day 2 before rbs stand out as bpa in terms of just strictly pure talent. well last years class they did

It would be hard to sell me on jonathon Taylor isn’t gonna prove more than worthy of his top 50 pick investment over the next half dozen years or so
 
hoops said:
Teams can get that 5th year option on a first round rb I’m sure that weighed into kcs decision with Edwards helaire last year.

however if a guys really legit they usually get extensions prior to that 5th year anyways or force the teams hand for them at least. Making it kind of a null incentive

I’m in the pick 50 at least rb category myself but like last year I think it’s not gonna take long on day 2 before rbs stand out as bpa in terms of just strictly pure talent. well last years class they did

It would be hard to sell me on jonathon Taylor isn’t gonna prove more than worthy of his top 50 pick investment over the next half dozen years or so
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So much of it is about the offensive line though and Indy's is really good. JT is a talent but he gets to run behind Quenton Nelson. Marlon Mack ran for 1,100 yards in 14 games the year before. They did have some late season injuries there, but they were still damn good.

We don't have an Olineman that can hold Nelson's jock strap
 
Is that a genome splicing chart of somebody's DNA?

Traditionally, no other position immediately affects wins and losses like a shiny new RB...Zeke is a prime example

It's just tough to pass on a player you think might add 3+ wins by themselves...
 
TheRevoltingBlob said:
Their standard was simply "dependable starter" to determine if a player was a bust or not. You can click on the source link and let me know if it matches what you've seen.

I wish I had cited my papers this well back in college 😞
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Nice! I went a little deeper in mine separating them in 4 groups instead of yay or nay... That part was a means to an end as I was trying to get an EV figure for each position group for each pick in the draft... Here's the thread I made about it is you missed it.

Out of the box, useful concepts for building great NFL teams...

I’ve spent quite a lot of time the last couple of months trying to understand how the NFL works. Most of what I’ve found I’ve been arguing to death around here for quite some time now, but some of it is hard to get across when splattered over multiple conversations and different threads. I...
finheaven.com finheaven.com
 
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