Evaluating the value of the RB position

[hoops]

So much of it is about the offensive line though and Indy's is really good. JT is a talent but he gets to run behind Quenton Nelson. Marlon Mack ran for 1,100 yards in 14 games the year before.

that’s true but you got a top 5 pick guard playing more than worthy of that pick investment. Most folks say guards aren’t worth that either.

elite is elite if you get elite it don’t matter where you get it. That’s why I keep saying I’m swinging for the fences with my top 5 pick.

they are game/outlook changers. But they got to play elite

 

[Mach2]

Yeah, but one of the points was that 1st round RB's have the highest bust rate of any offensive position. Only 1 guy you mentioned was a first rounder.

Part of the problem is that there is no clear definition of what constitutes a "bust". Another issue with RBs, is what is the drafted backs O-line situation?

You can't just ignore historical fact as irrelevant either.

My contention is that if your line is competent, an "elite" back doesn't make enough difference to justify the cost, whether it is money, or RD1 picks.

If the line is not competent, it makes no difference anyway.

You can't just look at one factor in a vacuum. You have to add all factors together to make rational decisions.

 

[Mach2]

that’s true but you got a top 5 pick guard playing more than worthy of that pick investment. Most folks say guards aren’t worth that either.

elite is elite if you get elite it don’t matter where you get it. That’s why I keep saying I’m swinging for the fences with my top 5 pick.

they are game/outlook changers. But they got to play elite

You do realize that "swinging for the fences" generally results in a lot more strike outs?

 

[hoops]

You do realize that "swinging for the fences" generally results in a lot more strike outs?

no it doesn’t


there’s risk reward in everything

sorry when i say swinging for the fences I don’t mean throw caution to the wind I just mean chasing elite traits etc.

 

[TheRevoltingBlob]

Part of the problem is that there is no clear definition of what constitutes a "bust". Another issue with RBs, is what is the drafted backs O-line situation?

You can't just ignore historical fact as irrelevant either.

My contention is that if your line is competent, an "elite" back doesn't make enough difference to justify the cost, whether it is money, or RD1 picks.

If the line is not competent, it makes no difference anyway.

You can't just look at one factor in a vacuum. You have to add all factors together to make rational decisions.

I agree. That's actually part of my issue with the portion of the board that thinks we can significantly improve our run game with a first round RB. If RB's are so difficult to judge bc they are so dependent on their line, then maybe focus on the line first. I want us to have a top 10 line that can make an average RB look good.

But fixing the run game is simply not a priority to me. You win based on your passing efficiency. Right now our line is still bad and our WR core was embarrassing last year. Those are the areas on offense that need the most attention. We started 3 rookies on the line, so we can hope for internal development. I would prefer we add something there though. And we need WR's that can create separation. That is a must.

I'm simply not sure we have the luxury of talking about taking a RB in the first 2 rounds.

 

[hoops]

Here’s my side of that. You could have a top 10 oline and I still think you are gonna want to do better than gaskin or Ahmed as your lead back. Regardless of what level ypa they get for you.

rotational depth ok yeah sure starter meh Id like to do better

 

[Ferretsquig]

Yeah, but one of the points was that 1st round RB's have the highest bust rate of any offensive position. Only 1 guy you mentioned was a first rounder.

I get the bust rate argument but as a GM that cannot factor into your decision making process. You have to trust your scouts, research staff, and and interview process. Injury concerns I can understand but if you're a talent evaluator that doesn't trust your ability to make judgement's on a player's work ethic then you need to find another job.

The point I was trying to make is that I think most any team would be thrilled to get the production those players provided from a first round pick. If the Dolphins got 4 yrs of what Chubb has done for the Browns so far with the 20th pick I'd be thrilled.

 

[Travis34]

Here’s my side of that. You could have a top 10 oline and I still think you are gonna want to do better than gaskin or Ahmed as your lead back. Regardless of what level ypa they get for you.

rotational depth ok yeah sure starter meh Id like to do better

Defintely true too

Need a good mixture. good wr's, good OL, good rb, then a smart QB to then use all of that to work his magic

 

[Ferretsquig]

Its not that you cant find good RBs in the first... The problem is that the rookie wage scale already pays top RB money early in the draft... There's no margin for error, and absolutely no way you're getting a discount from your draft pick.

I don't know about that. I'd agree for most cases but I'd happily pay top 10 rookie money for Zeke or McCaffrey. And if you could re-do things how many players would you take over Kamara, or even Hunt pre-legal issues?

Especially those that can transcend the traditional positional restrictions...the new age LeVeon Bells of the world.

In general I'd agree with the top of the draft. Nearing the back end I think there's a lot of value to be found.

 

[TheRevoltingBlob]

Here’s my side of that. You could have a top 10 oline and I still think you are gonna want to do better than gaskin or Ahmed as your lead back. Regardless of what level ypa they get for you.

rotational depth ok yeah sure starter meh Id like to do better

I do like them for rotational depth. But we are talking about a 7th rounder and a UDFA. We can attempt to add a superior player without using any of our top picks.

To me it's about priorities. I don't see how you can look at our offensive line and WR play last year and think, this team really needs to prioritize RB. Passing wins games and we don't have the pieces to create an effective passing game right now.

That doesn't mean you can't try to improve the RB position as well. I've already mentioned guys like Kenneth Gainwell and Javonte Williams as guys I would like to target after our first 4 picks. This draft doesn't have a RB I can picture slipping to pick 50, while still being the best likely option IMO (basically only Harris/Etienne and that's not happening).

We can agree or disagree on the players to target, but I believe we can add a decent RB prospect, while still focusing on fixing our pass game first.

 

[macd123]

I agree. That's actually part of my issue with the portion of the board that thinks we can significantly improve our run game with a first round RB. If RB's are so difficult to judge bc they are so dependent on their line, then maybe focus on the line first. I want us to have a top 10 line that can make an average RB look good.

But fixing the run game is simply not a priority to me. You win based on your passing efficiency. Right now our line is still bad and our WR core was embarrassing last year. Those are the areas on offense that need the most attention. We started 3 rookies on the line, so we can hope for internal development. I would prefer we add something there though. And we need WR's that can create separation. That is a must.

I simply don't think we have the luxury of talking about taking a RB in the first 2 rounds.

I also think some of us are underestimating our needs on passing D too.

That's what our success was built on this year but look what happened when McCain left the field and when Byron Jones was injured. Baker is our only LB with range. It still needs work.

 

[Mach2]

no it doesn’t


there’s risk reward in everything

sorry when i say swinging for the fences I don’t mean throw caution to the wind I just mean chasing elite traits etc.

I would like to think that's a basic foundation of all competent organizations.

I mean you may vehemently disagree with their evaluation process, but I doubt anyone goes into the draft looking for jags with high picks.

I'm sure you realze that some traits are valued more than others, but an "elite" athlete that is dumb as a box of rocks has less potential than a little lesser athlete that is smart and instinctual.

I guess I misunderstood the baseball analogy. Swinging for the fences is fine, but not in a tie game, with one out and a man on third.

As always, context is important.

 

[Dolfansal]

Etienne is very similar to McCaffrey and Kamara.

With the right offensive mind that will be invaluable.

 

[Mach2]

I get the bust rate argument but as a GM that cannot factor into your decision making process. You have to trust your scouts, research staff, and and interview process. Injury concerns I can understand but if you're a talent evaluator that doesn't trust your ability to make judgement's on a player's work ethic then you need to find another job.

The point I was trying to make is that I think most any team would be thrilled to get the production those players provided from a first round pick. If the Dolphins got 4 yrs of what Chubb has done for the Browns so far with the 20th pick I'd be thrilled.

I don't disagree, but your example with Chubb is a non starter for me, because I don't see a back in this draft that is what I thought Chubb was coming out.

Do you?

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Etienne is very similar to McCaffrey and Kamara.

With the right offensive mind that will be invaluable.

You have your QB, you'll get the outside help...a gamechanger at RB is a nice luxury.