Extend Parker Now?

[NBP81]

Now hear me out before you call me names... If you adhere to the buy low logic, now would be the time to extend Parker.

• Parker is at the bottom of his range right now, coming off his worst season
• 24 years old, still got a decent contract left in him before he hits any kind of wall
• No off field issues to speak of, while some are dissapointed in the return from a early first round pick, he still has value as a WR
• We have no one on roster to replace him a the moment... UFA will cost more

I see alot of posts every year about how we never extend our players early in order to get discounts, but the same people usually dont want to take the risks involved with this strategy. Good example is Vernon, who everyone agrees we should've signed a year earlier... Problem is, there would've been an outrage if the team had done so with the type of production the team got from him that year... It's about buying low...

Parker could be worth up to 15M per a soon as next off season if he gets a decent season with his measurables, locking him up right now for a fraction of the price could be a very well calculated gamble...

Would you take this gamble?

 

[CMD]

 

[gregorygrant83]

I'm about as big of a Parker fan as you're going to find, but if he's asking for a deal anywhere near $15 million I let him walk. I would say somewhere between $10 and $12 million maybe, but Miami is getting close to the point where they can pass on drafting at some positions next year and look at receiver if they want in the 2nd or 3rd round. Plus there seems to me several prospects in that 6'3 215 range that might be a cheaper option in that role. For example I would be ok with signing a cheaper free agent and drafting Colin Johnson of Texas on day two. Again I really like Parker, but receiver is always a position that depends on other positions for their success. If your qb and o-line are decent than an average receiver can be effective in today's NFL. If your qb and line are struggling than the receiver tends to struggle too to a degree.

 

[NBP81]

I'm about as big of a Parker fan as you're going to find, but if he's asking for a deal anywhere near $15 million I let him walk. I would say somewhere between $10 and $12 million maybe, but Miami is getting close to the point where they can pass on drafting at some positions next year and look at receiver if they want in the 2nd or 3rd round. Plus there seems to me several prospects in that 6'3 215 range that might be a cheaper option in that role. For example I would be ok with signing a cheaper free agent and drafting Colin Johnson of Texas on day two. Again I really like Parker, but receiver is always a position that depends on other positions for their success. If your qb and o-line are decent than an average receiver can be effective in today's NFL. If your qb and line are struggling than the receiver tends to struggle too to a degree.

Yeah no way you extend him for 15M per now, he can go pound sand in that scenario, but for 10-11M per, I'd seriously consider it...

 

[GUH-sick-EE]

This is actually a more interesting thread than the title suggests; kudos. I've said something similar myself before (signing at the 10-11 mil range, but that was post-season, assuming he trends up this year). My problem would be the whole work ethic thing. If someone on the staff, who obviously has more insight than us, is comfortable hanging his rep on the fact that Parker has finally turned a corner in that regard, and it seems genuine (not just cuz it's a contract year), then I guess I'd be comfortable with it. Especially with performance incentives.

 

[oasis]

I'm not a huge Parker fan, though I'd of course love to see him put it all together. I'd be willing to give him an extension along the lines of what Kenny Stills is making, with an easy out for the team. That's about what his stats thus far warrant. I realize he has a tremendous amount of potential that many would argue should net him a larger contract, but for me that is canceled out by the lack of "want-to."

 

[superphin]

I don't understand why the assumption that we have no one to replace him. Maybe his measurable and pretty combine numbers are not easy to replace but his production is very easy to replace. How hard would it be to replace 46 receptions 636 yards and 3 TD's a year? Keenan Allen and, Desean Jackson are priced at 11 million per and they are substantially better WR's than Parker. TY Hilton is getting 13 million and there's no way I can be convinced Parker is within 2 million dollars of Hilton as far as production. 2 year 12 million and 8 million guaranteed thats what a player of his numbers should get and that's probably overpaying.

 

[NBP81]

This is actually a more interesting thread than the title suggests; kudos. I've said something similar myself before (signing at the 10-11 mil range, but that was post-season, assuming he trends up this year). My problem would be the whole work ethic thing. If someone on the staff, who obviously has more insight than us, is comfortable hanging his rep on the fact that Parker has finally turned a corner in that regard, and it seems genuine (not just cuz it's a contract year), then I guess I'd be comfortable with it. Especially with performance incentives.

Well from all accounts, at least from the team, he's been putting in the work... I know broccoli bob said he was coasting, and I appreciate his insights, but I trust the coaching staff more...

Whats the real downside here to paying a player like Parker 10M per? Because the upside could be flat out game changing...

I see most of the people around here predicting 9-7 or 10-6. If that happens it means the OL was actually decent and the offense was at the very least top 3rd in the league, that scenario benefits Parker like a glove, he's probably the guy who's going to benefit the most out of good QB protection outside of Tannehill himself... People talk about being proactive all the time, but you have to take calculated risks doing so... I just dont see how Parker at 10-11M per could be such a ball and chain... Just dont see it...

 

[NBP81]

I don't understand why the assumption that we have no one to replace him. Maybe his measurable and pretty combine numbers are not easy to replace but his production is very easy to replace. How hard would it be to replace 46 receptions 636 yards and 3 TD's a year? Keenan Allen, Desean Jackson are priced at 11 million per and they are substantially better WR's than Parker. TY Hilton is getting 13 million and there's no way I can be convinced Parker is within 2 million dollars of Hilton as far as production. 2 year 12 million and 8 million guaranteed thats what a player of his numbers should get and that's probably overpaying.

More recently, Albert Wilson just got 8 per, being older with much less production... Parker is still only 24 YO...

 

[royalshank]

I’ve seen enough of him to believe he’ll never be a factor. Where are the big plays in key moments? How many balls went his way that got picked off? He doesn’t play like he looks like he would based on his measureables. He’s “ok”. Not horrible but I wouldn’t even spend $10mil on him. He’s a JAG at the end of the day - and one w low football IQ in my opinion. Unless the light comes on and he tears it up this year, I’m not sure I make much of an effort to retain him. If Landry was replaceable, so is Parker - easily. Funny how this has played out - Stills is our most valuable WR based on ability to put up long TDs / big plays consistently every year. He’s been doing for us what Mike Wallace was supposed to do. He’s the only WR w Landry gone who would be very hard to replace. Parker just isn’t the guy. Not saying he’s horrible but he’s closer to a “bust” than a “beast”. I don’t pay him.

 

[superphin]

More recently, Albert Wilson just got 8 per, being older with much less production... Parker is still only 24 YO...

2 wrongs dont make a right.

 

[NBP81]

2 wrongs dont make a right.

well its the market... Just go out and check out how you are going to replace him and figure out a cost... 24 YO receiver with his mesureables on the open market... What makes this interesting is that with his injury history, Parker might not be that willing to bet on himself, which makes a friendly deal very possible IMO...

 

[Superself]

Well from all accounts, at least from the team, he's been putting in the work... I know broccoli bob said he was coasting, and I appreciate his insights, but I trust the coaching staff more...

Whats the real downside here to paying a player like Parker 10M per? Because the upside could be flat out game changing...

I see most of the people around here predicting 9-7 or 10-6. If that happens it means the OL was actually decent and the offense was at the very least top 3rd in the league, that scenario benefits Parker like a glove, he's probably the guy who's going to benefit the most out of good QB protection outside of Tannehill himself... People talk about being proactive all the time, but you have to take calculated risks doing so... I just dont see how Parker at 10-11M per could be such a ball and chain... Just dont see it...

Parker better go off this season if he expects that type of money. So far, he hasn't really done anything to warrant an extension. In addition, he isn't really a culture fit. I'd be looking to trade him mid-season or right after he has a really good game.

 

[NBP81]

Parker better go off this season if he expects that type of money. So far, he hasn't really done anything to warrant an extension. In addition, he isn't really a culture fit. I'd be looking to trade him mid-season or right after he has a really good game.

If Parker goes off this season, he easily gets 13-14M per in FA... Why isnt he a culture fit?

 

[superphin]

well its the market... Just go out and check out how you are going to replace him and figure out a cost... 24 YO receiver with his mesureables on the open market... What makes this interesting is that with his injury history, Parker might not be that willing to bet on himself, which makes a friendly deal very possible...

Now I don't know the inner workings of a front office and how they decide who is worth what but I have a hard time believing measurables are more important than film and the actual numbers he put up both of which are not in his favor. At least with a guy like wilson you could say he was trending up and did pretty good with limited opportunities so maybe just maybe if given more responsibility he'll deliver but you can't say that about Parker. Parker as our 3rd most targeted WR only had 116 more yards than Wilson as the KC's 4th most targeted WR and less TD's.