Fan's infatuation with the wide receivers in the draft | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Fan's infatuation with the wide receivers in the draft

juniorseau55 said:
The biggest trend we been seeing in drafts is wide receivers in later rounds having more success in the nfl than their 1st round counterpart, and our biggest question is why is that?
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Might be a good idea to demonstrate this trend with some type of data, because I'm here to tell you it's another falsehood. You tend to spit those out left and right.

There were no later round receivers that had more success than Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Henry Ruggs, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault, Jalen Raegor, and K.J. Hamler from the 2020 draft. They were all top 50 picks and 6 came off the board in the 1st round. Furthermore, Day 2 has always been a good place to draft WR's and RB's. However, it doesn't mean that the 1st round isn't.

The guy that stands out from that group is Henry Ruggs. The WR I warned everyone was overrated and the 4th best WR on Bama's roster - and was going to be drafted too high because of his speed. Gabriel Davis outperformed him and I had Gabriel Davis ranked significantly higher than Ruggs. Not to mention Justin Jefferson.

Winning organizations understand that the draft is about acquiring the best talent available no matter what position it is. If you're not competing for anything - you don't have any positions that are too good not to address with talent. Even Aaron Rodgers understands that now.




27% of the top 11 highest graded rookie WR's from 2010-2019 were drafted in the 1st Round (Odell Beckham, Mike Evans & Demaryius Thomas)

45% of the top 11 highest graded rookie WR's from 2010-2019 were drafted on Day 2 (Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen & Chris Godwin)


In essence, 72% of the highest graded rookie WR's over the past decade were drafted in the top 75 picks - with nearly half of those drafted in the 1st round.





50% of the most receptions in the NFL since 2014 belong to WR's that were selected in the 1st Round:

Mike Evans (532)
Odell Beckham (487)
Brandin Cooks (483)


The other 50% belongs to WR's that were selected in the 2nd Round:

Jarvis Landry (636)
Davante Adams (546)
Allen Robinson (457)


There are outliers like Antonio Brown or Tyreek Hill that came off the board on Day 3, but they make up less than 10% of the big picture. A kid like Hill slid to Day 3 because he wasn't a very good person. Nothing to do with his talent. But when you're that talented even the NFL will only let you slide so far.


The rest of your post is fairly decent. Pitts is the best player in the draft and Day 2 is always a good place to snare top notch skill position talent that teams let slide out of the 1st round because they were all busy drafting Penei Sewell's.
 
whichever players have the biggest contributing factor to scoring more points, i am all for. we need to score more points. i am good with the schematics on defense and that we will be a likely above average defense because of that. but we need to find a way to become a top team in terms of putting points on the scoreboard. if its pitts or receivers or even a different quarterback, i am good with it.
 
juniorseau55 said:
This is not another Kyle Pitts discussion as his draft value is an automatic top 10 pick. This discussion is more about the options available in the draft. The biggest trend we been seeing in drafts is wide receivers in later rounds having more success in the nfl than their 1st round counterpart, and our biggest question is why is that? Is it because 1st round receivers going to bad teams? Or these 1st round picks going to bad quarterbacks? If anyone in here has data please share it.

1. 3rd overall pick value has to be an extremely skilled player.

A.. There isnt a receiver worth this pick at all.
B. There are quarterbacks worth this value
C. There is an offensive lineman worth this value.
D. There isnt a defensive player worth this value.
F. There is a skilled tight end worth this value. He is an F tight end that could be lined up anywhere in the field.

2. 18th overall pick

A. There isn't a receiver worth this value with the projected available receivers. At least for us.
B. There will be offensive linemen worth this value. In fact, after sewell we wont be seeing another lineman drafted for a few picks.
C. There will be quite a few defensive players worth the pick, but whether they will be upgrades to our defense that is subject to opinion or what the dolphins want.
D. No runningback will be worth the pick specially with the depth at this position in this draft.

3. Our 36 pick overall

A. This is where I feel our investment for receiver should come from. Toney might be around, Marshall Jr. Might be around. Since we don't know how we will treat our offense then it could be either. Pitts would be splitting a lot of time in the slot as a tight end if we draft him. So if marshall is available then we draft him. He would be a perfect choice as a flanker for us. We need a big bodied receiver to replace parker eventually.
B. We may find a gem at guard or center but those picks would be better for our 52nd overall pick. Specially if Landon Richardson is there.
C. We will be seeing great rb in this round. But are they worth more for us than Marshall or Toney?


4. 52nd overall pick

A. This would be a perfect pick at center. Landon Richardson being here would be a blessing.
B. There will be plenty of runningbacks available also.


Summary:

We need to stay away from the same wide receiver hype. Receiver will still be strong in 2nd round. If we are talking about drafting the most skilled player in the draft then Pitts would be the best choice for us, or sewell. Drafting a rb with the 18th overall isn't worth it. Specially with the value we will still be seeing in the 2nd round. Drafting a receiver or runningback in the 1st round would be a waste of a pick in fact.
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I think Chase, Smith, and Waddle are worth the 3rd pick in the draft.

Historically TE’s are not worth picking in the top 5 and I feel that same way about Pitts if he is going to be drafted as a TE. If they are planning to covert him to WR because of his size and speed, perhaps that would elevate him to a top 5 pick.

Sewell is worth a top 3 pick but I don’t see another offensive lineman who should be drafted that high.

The only QB worth the 3rd pick in the draft is probably Lawrence but QB’s are always drafted too high because teams always overvalue them. Because the need for a QB is so high on teams which don’t already have a very good QB.

Parsons may be worth the 3rd pick based on his skillset but his off the field questions will likely cause him to slip down in the draft.
 
3rdandinches said:
Not a popular opinion but I'd rather worry about setting Tua and this offense up for success then worrying if a right value is assessed to a certain position and where it is picked. If selecting Pitts and Harris in the first round helps this offense the most then make the picks. If the FO thinks it's Chase and Etienne then make the picks, I don't care but not selecting a player because there's more perceived value selecting someone else later. Again I get people not liking this thought, just my 2 cents.
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I think there's a strong argument here because of QB development. That's the most important thing moving forward for this team and it's hard to argue that adding two high skill options at 3 (or lower, with trade down) and 18 enhances his development. You just have to be careful not to reach too far because in the bigger picture, it's always better to draft the best player at high positional value.

In this draft, I think those top receivers which includes Pitts have impact potential to justify a top of the draft selection and Harris is so good you could justify picking him at 18. It's a fun argument and thank God only five weeks from today away. lol.
 
When I saw the misspelled word “infactuation” in the title, I thought the OP was using a creative word play in which facts would be used to support the premise in the original post.

Turns out the only fact is that I was wrong in my assumption.
 
1972forever said:
I think Chase, Smith, and Waddle are worth the 3rd pick in the draft.

Historically TE’s are not worth picking in the top 5 and I feel that same way about Pitts if he is going to be drafted as a TE. If they are planning to covert him to WR because of his size and speed, perhaps that would elevate him to a top 5 pick.

Sewell is worth a top 3 pick but I don’t see another offensive lineman who should be drafted that high.

The only QB worth the 3rd pick in the draft is probably Lawrence but QB’s are always drafted too high because teams always overvalue them. Because the need for a QB is so high on teams which don’t already have a very good QB.

Parsons may be worth the 3rd pick based on his skillset but his off the field questions will likely cause him to slip down in the draft.
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I think that's all fair but in regards to Pitts, I don't think it's a matter of "converting" him to anything. He already IS an all over the formation weapon and any team selecting him would be foolish not to use him in those fashions to take advantage of his skill set and pu the defense in a tough spot not knowing where he'll line up. As much as I'd like a trade-down, I have to admit, landing a weapon like Pitts and drafting a top RB at 18 would make this offense a lot of fun to watch. And this is entertainment at the end of the day, right? lol.
 
juniorseau55 said:
Who do you want big nasty?
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stop the nonsense.

In the Pitts camp.

Really like the QB Wilson but not pushing that button aggressively.

Trying to believe Tua is the answer -- but have serous concerns/doubts... So I'm trusting Flo & Co eval.

Of course if Grier can orchestrate a swindle I'm OK with that.

But really I'm lookin' for 4 impact players with 2R1s and 2R2s.

Need some focking excitement in Dolphinsland IMO!
 
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