Fan's infatuation with the wide receivers in the draft

[Sherif]

Meh. Sometimes you shouldn’t overthink things. My hope however, is that some QB needy team such as Carolina for example, trades up with us and we trade back, draft a receiver, and pick up an extra 2 this year and 1 next year. That would be ideal...

HOwever, I do agree with you, I’d love Pitts at 3 if we weren’t able to trade back.

That would be the ideal scenario and it's not far fetched to get WR Waddell or D. Smith at 8 and still keep the multiple first round picks train going into next year. According to Bet online QB Fields has the best odds at +200 of being selected with the 3rd pick. Trevor L. pays $1 for a $10,000 bet to be picked one. Wilson pays $1 for every $3.50 bet to be #2 so one and two are set.

I think the Dolphins need to start looking at and inviting Justin Fields, the highest value pick at number 3 for an interview. That will send a message to Denver and Carolina that they better not wait until 4 to trade if neither calls us for a trade the Fins should go ahead and draft Fields.

 

[MercMan]

You are too focused on yardage. The main objective of the defense is to prevent the other team from scoring right? If that is the case we ranked 6th in the league in points allowed. We ranked 16th in the league in rush defense in terms of rushing yardage. None of our defeats except for the first new england game was due to our inability to stop the run. Our goal line defense was among the best in the league.

That's a good comeback and I defer to the stats in most cases but our defense spent way too much time on the field which meant our offense had fewer chances to score, so I guess it all depends on perspective. Hoe many points can you score on offense if they spend most of the games on the sidelines.

 

[Phinsince92]

But it's a 5 year contract, after year four you draft another in the 3-5th rounds and say good bye the 1st rounder. But get a stud in the run game we must. I feel we don't have the luxury to draft one later and hope they turn out.

Stud running backs come in every round. You can say that for any position but it’s few and far between compared to rb’s. There’s studs in the 2-3 round every year. If by your account we should take one in the 3-5 round after year 4 then why take one in the 1st this year? To me it’s completely unnecessary when maybe only 1 back will go in the first and there’s several good ones.

 

[3rdandinches]

Stud running backs come in every round. You can say that for any position but it’s few and far between compared to rb’s. There’s studs in the 2-3 round every year. If by your account we should take one in the 3-5 round after year 4 then why take one in the 1st this year? To me it’s completely unnecessary when maybe only 1 back will go in the first and there’s several good ones.

It's simple we don't have a stud. We need one, so take one early. Now once you have a stud, draft another RB in the later rounds a year or two before the contract is up. This gives you a chance to find out if you hit or not while still having a stud in house.
Right now if we wait until the later rounds for a RB we are hoping to hit and if we don't it hurts this offense being one dimensional. Get the stud and then play the recycle game!

 

[Phinsince92]

I don’t disagree but I think we can still get a stud running back in the 2-3rd round. Agree to disagree I guess.

 

[NBP81]

Might be a good idea to demonstrate this trend with some type of data, because I'm here to tell you it's another falsehood. You tend to spit those out left and right.

There were no later round receivers that had more success than Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Henry Ruggs, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault, Jalen Raegor, and K.J. Hamler from the 2020 draft. They were all top 50 picks and 6 came off the board in the 1st round. Furthermore, Day 2 has always been a good place to draft WR's and RB's. However, it doesn't mean that the 1st round isn't.

The guy that stands out from that group is Henry Ruggs. The WR I warned everyone was overrated and the 4th best WR on Bama's roster - and was going to be drafted too high because of his speed. Gabriel Davis outperformed him and I had Gabriel Davis ranked significantly higher than Ruggs. Not to mention Justin Jefferson.

Winning organizations understand that the draft is about acquiring the best talent available no matter what position it is. If you're not competing for anything - you don't have any positions that are too good not to address with talent. Even Aaron Rodgers understands that now.




27% of the top 11 highest graded rookie WR's from 2010-2019 were drafted in the 1st Round (Odell Beckham, Mike Evans & Demaryius Thomas)

45% of the top 11 highest graded rookie WR's from 2010-2019 were drafted on Day 2 (Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen & Chris Godwin)


In essence, 72% of the highest graded rookie WR's over the past decade were drafted in the top 75 picks - with nearly half of those drafted in the 1st round.





50% of the most receptions in the NFL since 2014 belong to WR's that were selected in the 1st Round:

Mike Evans (532)
Odell Beckham (487)
Brandin Cooks (483)


The other 50% belongs to WR's that were selected in the 2nd Round:

Jarvis Landry (636)
Davante Adams (546)
Allen Robinson (457)


There are outliers like Antonio Brown or Tyreek Hill that came off the board on Day 3, but they make up less than 10% of the big picture. A kid like Hill slid to Day 3 because he wasn't a very good person. Nothing to do with his talent. But when you're that talented even the NFL will only let you slide so far.


The rest of your post is fairly decent. Pitts is the best player in the draft and Day 2 is always a good place to snare top notch skill position talent that teams let slide out of the 1st round because they were all busy drafting Penei Sewell's.

Thanks, you just saved me a bunch of time...

@juniorseau55 Its one thing to troll people daily with these threads, but stop making **** up. You're credibility is taking a nosedive lately.

 

[juniorseau55]

Thanks, you just saved me a bunch of time...

@juniorseau55 Its one thing to troll people daily with these threads, but stop making **** up. You're credibility is taking a nosedive lately.

And I Haven't picked that comment apart yet.

 

[NBP81]

And I Haven't picked that comment apart yet.

Well of course you didnt. At this point, Im not even sure if you're trolling or if you flat out just dont understand why your claim doesnt make any sense.

The biggest trend we been seeing in drafts is wide receivers in later rounds having more success in the nfl than their 1st round counterpart, and our biggest question is why is that?

This is like saying you're not very likely to find a rich person in Silicon Valley because 99% of rich people on planet earth dont live there. Its a stupid argument to make and I dont even need data to know you're either full of **** or flat out clueless...?

 

[Etuoo33]

Pitts in th

I understand your thinking...and the reason I disagree with it is in your post. Miami has four picks in the top 50.

They can literally do whatever they want outside of the top two picks; "Too early" and "value" are kinda out the window because of their positioning. Would I prefer that they trade back from #3 and acquire more picks? Sure...(and that throws "pick value" even FARTHER out the window)...but I'm not gonna freak the hell out if they don't, and instead take the WR or TE or OT or whoever they REALLY WANT as the player they see as a perfect fit for the Dolphins.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the only thing, aside from a complete butchering of the first two rounds, that will upset me is if they come out of the first two rounds without either Najee Harris or Javonte Williams. They're who I see as perfect for this team.

Sounds like another Pitts thread to me. Parsons not worth an early pick? F*** the off season...

 

[Finsfan1984]

Value is way over thought IMO. Value actually changes from year to year. Sure, the QB is ALWAYS valued highest, but that is really the only exception to this rule. Other than that position, value is based MAINLY on one thing and one thing only...how the individual player rates among the other players in that current draft class. The 3 WR’s and TE that are talked about so much in this draft class are far and away better value than everyone else with the exception of the QB’s, Sewell, and maybe a handful of other players. Several of the top defensive players have serious question marks surrounding them and therefore are questionable top 10 picks.

 

[Tropic]

I disagree that no receiver will be available at 18. Am I the only one on this site who believes Bateman is in the same class as the other three top receivers? He may/should be there at 18.

 

[Feverdream]

Value is way over thought IMO. Value actually changes from year to year. Sure, the QB is ALWAYS valued highest, but that is really the only exception to this rule. Other than that position, value is based MAINLY on one thing and one thing only...how the individual player rates among the other players in that current draft class. The 3 WR’s and TE that are talked about so much in this draft class are far and away better value than everyone else with the exception of the QB’s, Sewell, and maybe a handful of other players. Several of the top defensive players have serious question marks surrounding them and therefore are questionable top 10 picks.

Just as the offensive weapons have serious questions... Smith size, Sewell and Chase... lay-off, Waddle injury.

 

[Danny]

• New Dolphins WR Will Fuller has assured the team his PED suspension was a "one-time thing."​

  "It was a one-time thing, completely accidental, that's never going to happen again," was Fuller's exact quote. Fuller finally stayed healthy last season, but the after-the-fact suspicion was that it was because of the illegal substance that got him banned. Players never admit they were knowingly doing steroids and simply got caught, but it does not strain belief that someone could accidentally take something that includes a banned substance. In an ultimate "prove-it" situation on his one-year deal, Fuller is facing target competition from DeVante Parker and what will likely be a first-round wideout. His ADP figures to be all over the map in the early going this offseason.
  SOURCE: ESPN
  Mar 25, 2021, 7:17 PM ET
  
  

 

[Feverdream]

I disagree that no receiver will be available at 18. Am I the only one on this site who believes Bateman is in the same class as the other three top receivers? He may/should be there at 18.

They keep saying it, but I don't think they all believe it. Some do... and they grip tightly to the idea that these four are way better than the next few... but a lot of us have mentioned other receivers, particularly Bateman and Marshall.

 

[CANDolphan]

Chase's serious question is... "lay off"? Meaning what, exactly