I had a lean to the Falcons prior to their injuries. It simply makes more sense for both teams to be 2-1 than Miami 3-0 parallel to Atlanta at 1-2. Often I default to big picture simple ideas like that, rather than worrying about matchups. Matchups generally unfold as expected in college but in the pros the talent level is tight enough for them to be lessened if not occasionally reversed.
This game is tough for me to call because I can't stand the Falcons in this era. Most opponents I don't care about at all. But this Atlanta team strikes me as a whiny and often fortunate group. The coach has an agonized look on his face. I love it every time they are dismissed from the playoffs.
Miami figures to be quite energized to begin the game, particularly on defense. It's an interesting dynamic because Atlanta has been a dominant first half team of late. They've had a double digit first half lead in every meaningful game dating to late last season -- both playoff games and now the first two games of 2013. It's true the Saints led 13-10 at halftime but it was 10-0 Atlanta at one point. Last season Atlanta overpowered their first three opponents in the first half. I'm a first half bettor so I keep track of things like this. Atlanta seems to get the jump on teams early, unless they simply don't match up well against them, like the Panthers. It's possible the Dolphins are in the same category as the Panthers.
As much as I despise these Falcons, I'd still give them a weak nod by a field goal.
