First 3 picks in 2021 draft | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

First 3 picks in 2021 draft

We have to differentiate between 1st round WR's and High 1st Round WR's.

The record for WR's in R 1 overall is not bad but the history of taking them in the Top 10 is spotty at best, especially when considering the investment of such a high pick.You better get a STAR if you go WR that high.


You also have to consider that the NFL is a passing league now more than ever, so you need to be able to throw the ball to win.And you need guys getting open consistently to do that.

On the other hand, the rules make it much easier to get open than ever before so maybe you do not ELITE talent at WR, just high quality guys.

Confusing, isn't it? ;)


My view is that the Fins right now have a solid group of pass catchers but are lacking a true game breaker who DC's have to worry about.Add a guy like that(and we can and will argue about who the right guy would be)and I think you would have a very good group.make Parker WR 2 and you will find him getting open more often, and so on down the line.

I would love to see them add a dangerous slot guy and while both Smith and Waddle would excel there(and be able to play other spots as well) Amon Ra St Brown is going to be the next JuJu Smith Schuster and you might be able to steal him woth Houston's 2nd rounder.

I fully expect the Fins to draft a WR in R1, it is a glaring need AND the value where they are picking should be there.

Right now the Houston pick is 10 or 11 and that would be a mite too high for me philosophically but i could live with it, depending on who else is on the board of course.

Now if you tell me Miami could trade down from 10 to let's say 15, pick up another pick and then grab a WR I would be happier with that.


We still will have to wait until the Draft is closer to really know the WR pecking order and try to figure out who Miami might prefer.

Lots to think about and plenty of time to figure it out.
 
Sonn_pop said:
Who are some better centers?
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A couple of these are arguable but I think a couple will be better than Creed. In no particular order:

Jimmy Morrissey - Pittsburgh
Josh Myers - Ohio State
Alec Lindstrom - Boston College - Creed probably is better than Alec
Landon Dickerson - Alabama - Maybe my favorite
Trey Hill - Georgia - Nobody's talking about him!

In any case, it's all very subjective at this point, especially when taken into account each player's strengths and how they fit with how a team wishes to utilise that player.

Enjoy!
 
jimthefin said:
We have to differentiate between 1st round WR's and High 1st Round WR's.

The record for WR's in R 1 overall is not bad but the history of taking them in the Top 10 is spotty at best, especially when considering the investment of such a high pick.You better get a STAR if you go WR that high.


You also have to consider that the NFL is a passing league now more than ever, so you need to be able to throw the ball to win.And you need guys getting open consistently to do that.

On the other hand, the rules make it much easier to get open than ever before so maybe you do not ELITE talent at WR, just high quality guys.

Confusing, isn't it? ;)


My view is that the Fins right now have a solid group of pass catchers but are lacking a true game breaker who DC's have to worry about.Add a guy like that(and we can and will argue about who the right guy would be)and I think you would have a very good group.make Parker WR 2 and you will find him getting open more often, and so on down the line.

I would love to see them add a dangerous slot guy and while both Smith and Waddle would excel there(and be able to play other spots as well) Amon Ra St Brown is going to be the next JuJu Smith Schuster and you might be able to steal him woth Houston's 2nd rounder.

I fully expect the Fins to draft a WR in R1, it is a glaring need AND the value where they are picking should be there.

Right now the Houston pick is 10 or 11 and that would be a mite too high for me philosophically but i could live with it, depending on who else is on the board of course.

Now if you tell me Miami could trade down from 10 to let's say 15, pick up another pick and then grab a WR I would be happier with that.


We still will have to wait until the Draft is closer to really know the WR pecking order and try to figure out who Miami might prefer.

Lots to think about and plenty of time to figure it out.
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I like Amon Ra St. Brown as well. I think he and Marshall from LSU are going to be relative steals.
 
Stoobz said:
A couple of these are arguable but I think a couple will be better than Creed. In no particular order:

Jimmy Morrissey - Pittsburgh
Josh Myers - Ohio State
Alec Lindstrom - Boston College - Creed probably is better than Alec
Landon Dickerson - Alabama - Maybe my favorite
Trey Hill - Georgia - Nobody's talking about him!

In any case, it's all very subjective at this point, especially when taken into account each player's strengths and how they fit with how a team wishes to utilise that player.

Enjoy!
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Who would you say is the best run blocker from this group? I keep hearing pass blocking os Humphrey's strength.
 
Stoobz said:
A couple of these are arguable but I think a couple will be better than Creed. In no particular order:

Jimmy Morrissey - Pittsburgh
Josh Myers - Ohio State
Alec Lindstrom - Boston College - Creed probably is better than Alec
Landon Dickerson - Alabama - Maybe my favorite
Trey Hill - Georgia - Nobody's talking about him!

In any case, it's all very subjective at this point, especially when taken into account each player's strengths and how they fit with how a team wishes to utilise that player.

Enjoy!
Click to expand...
I think Trey Hill is a guard at the NFL level. Love the way he moves people but he’s good for one or two drive killing high snaps out of shotgun every game it seems
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Who would you say is the best run blocker from this group? I keep hearing pass blocking os Humphrey's strength.
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At first glance, I would have to say Trey Hill but that was more going off last year when he had the rest of those hosses with him.

My college football watching has been worse than most everyone else's this year due to my work schedule, so I'm probably a little behind.
 
Who knows how it all falls on draft night but I feel like the WR sweet spots are gonna be either 1a (one of the big 3) or 2a (St. Brown or Olave)
 
Stoobz said:
A couple of these are arguable but I think a couple will be better than Creed. In no particular order:

Jimmy Morrissey - Pittsburgh
Josh Myers - Ohio State
Alec Lindstrom - Boston College - Creed probably is better than Alec
Landon Dickerson - Alabama - Maybe my favorite
Trey Hill - Georgia - Nobody's talking about him!

In any case, it's all very subjective at this point, especially when taken into account each player's strengths and how they fit with how a team wishes to utilise that player.

Enjoy!
Click to expand...
I’ll check them out... thanks for the list
 
Feverdream said:
Fine, I have insomnia anyway.

2010: Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant. They weren't bad.
2011: AJ Green, Julio Jones, Jonathan Baldwin. A good year
2012: Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins. Ouch
2013: Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins. 50%, and Hopkins was draft at the bottom of the round.
2014: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin: Lotta busts there and a couple of minor hits.
2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DVP, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett. Eh... a couple of good, not great WRs.
2016: Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell,. Ouch.
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross. Umm... nothing really special

There are a whole lotta busts here. How many of these would YOU have been happy seeing us take in the 1st round?

I just did a few years, but I think that this is representative. A bunch of these guys ended up being JAG. Yes, there are some home runs here, but the overall % is low... and that was my ONLY point. Drafting a WR in the first is a crapshoot, but I'm willing to do it. I am just not excited about it.
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It makes it worse that in 2015 Steffon Diggs was a 5th rounder and in 2016 Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder!

Last year you had Darnell Mooney in the 5th round. And of course 2019 DK Metcalf was the 10th WR off the board and Terry McLaurin the 11th.

How much is luck and how much is judgment I don't know. Washington drafted Haskins in the 1st round that same year...

I'd be interested to know how the bust rate of WRs compares with other positions.
 
macd123 said:
It makes it worse that in 2015 Steffon Diggs was a 5th rounder and in 2016 Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder!

Last year you had Darnell Mooney in the 5th round. And of course 2019 DK Metcalf was the 10th WR off the board and Terry McLaurin the 11th.

How much is luck and how much is judgment I don't know. Washington drafted Haskins in the 1st round that same year...

I'd be interested to know how the bust rate of WRs compares with other positions.
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I think GMs are a lot like fans... Sometimes I think they get caught up in hype. They see a guy exploding through mediocre competition and say, "gosh, he makes it look easy".

Well... yeah. Against those guys, sure.
 
macd123 said:
It makes it worse that in 2015 Steffon Diggs was a 5th rounder and in 2016 Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder!

Last year you had Darnell Mooney in the 5th round. And of course 2019 DK Metcalf was the 10th WR off the board and Terry McLaurin the 11th.

How much is luck and how much is judgment I don't know. Washington drafted Haskins in the 1st round that same year...

I'd be interested to know how the bust rate of WRs compares with other positions.
Click to expand...

Diggs had some effort concerns coming out iirc, and Hill fell because he's a scumbag, but it's true that teams often put too much weight on athleticism and not enough on skill.

It's worth highlighting the SEC, though. Outside of Treadwell, 1st RD SEC WR's haven't disappointed. Off the top of my head, 2nd RD WR's from the SEC seem to hit at a higher rate, too. Clemson WR's also have a good track record. I'd credit recruiting and development, but I'd also credit level of competition for separating the wheat. Clemson doesn't get the same level of competition throughout the year, but they play the best teams at the end of the season. If you look really good vs the best D's in CFB, you're probably really good.

In 2020, I viewed 5 WR's as worth a Top 20 pick, and I feel great about 4 out of the 5. 3 of those 4 WR's (Jeudy, Higgins, and Jefferson) were SEC or Clemson WR's. The other is Creede Lamb. The 5th (Reagor) has me concerned, but his situation has been poor, and I still think he can make good on that valuation. While I think he still has a real shot to show out, I do think I underrated the concerns with his game.

My general point is that there are things you can do to mitigate the risk in drafting a WR early, and since WR is SO valuable, it's worth looking for those advantages.
 
Right now, I'd be leaning somewhat this way. Very offense-centric, tho there are a lot of D players I like for us, such as the Stanford CB. Joe Tryon looks like a Flores guy to me. Patrick Jones II has potential. Anyway:

1a Davonta Smith
1b Dylan Moses
2a Jayvon Williams
2b Amon Ra St Brown
3 Tre McKitty
4a James Empey
 
EJay said:
Not exactly as you outlined it, but this is essentially the argument I’ve been making to those lobbying hard for Micah Parsons.

Offense rules the game today. And our Dolphins have to work very hard to drive the ball the length of the field. No consistent rush attack, not many explosive plays.

Addressing those shortcomings should be priority #1.

The defense sure could use a talent like Parsons (Who couldn’t?) but there’s more to work with on that side of the ball already.

The offense really needs some speed and horsepower added.
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no doubt but I’m confident I can get that with my 2nd first rounder and my day 2 picks.

but like I said if I can’t get parsons I’m gonna pounce on one of them WRs. Id think it will be jamar chase whose name is called first however

also I think you gonna see some of these WRs get more into miamis 2nd pick range anyways.
 
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j-off-her-doll said:
Diggs had some effort concerns coming out iirc, and Hill fell because he's a scumbag, but it's true that teams often put too much weight on athleticism and not enough on skill.

It's worth highlighting the SEC, though. Outside of Treadwell, 1st RD SEC WR's haven't disappointed. Off the top of my head, 2nd RD WR's from the SEC seem to hit at a higher rate, too. Clemson WR's also have a good track record. I'd credit recruiting and development, but I'd also credit level of competition for separating the wheat. Clemson doesn't get the same level of competition throughout the year, but they play the best teams at the end of the season. If you look really good vs the best D's in CFB, you're probably really good.

In 2020, I viewed 5 WR's as worth a Top 20 pick, and I feel great about 4 out of the 5. 3 of those 4 WR's (Jeudy, Higgins, and Jefferson) were SEC or Clemson WR's. The other is Creede Lamb. The 5th (Reagor) has me concerned, but his situation has been poor, and I still think he can make good on that valuation. While I think he still has a real shot to show out, I do think I underrated the concerns with his game.

My general point is that there are things you can do to mitigate the risk in drafting a WR early, and since WR is SO valuable, it's worth looking for those advantages.
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That's a point worth considering with the talk about a franchise cultural reset. How important is a player's character? Devonta Smith is A+++ in that regard. I was slightly surprised we signed Lynn Bowden and Kirk Merrit, but then again we found some value in Preston Williams. People deserve 2nd chances I know. But I suspect people will overlook a lot if someone is performing on the field.
 
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