Edmunds and Elliott would be a phenomenal start for Miami, but I'd bet against Elliott being available.
This... I couldn't agree more!you don't pass up on LB talent due to kiko
We tend to agree on a lot, but I have to disagree here. Relative to most classes, this LB group looks very strong. Smith, Edmunds, Vander Esch, Sam, and Jefferson all have the combination of instincts, speed, and physicality to produce early starters with high ceilings. There are obviously disparities within that group, but I'd take the group over the 2017 top 5 LB's, and definitely the 2016 and 2015 groups. In a draft with few strengths, LB stands out in a good way. I'll be interested to see if Edmunds really does blow up the Combine. Have a feeling some of the claims are overstated. Not factoring his age, which rightfully gives him a bump, he's behind Smith, Vander Esch, Sam, and Jefferson as a player. Him being about 2 years younger than everyone but Smith does hold weight/complicate the rankings.
The Patriots, with Brady, have drafted 9 QBs since drafting Brady. Think about that.Curious . . . how many QBs did Miami draft OR sign as FAs during that time? Quite a few. It isn't as if there was no attempt.
And Penny is an example of getting lucky. That's the problem with all positions - it takes luck. Not discounting talent, because some are just better at identifying talent. BUT, regardless how good or bad a team's evaluators are, luck is always there.
And selecting 6 QBs in 16 years is fairly often, given teams generally give a QB 3 years before moving on. Nor do we want to forget there are 3 LBs to 1 QB so 18 to 6 is the same emphasis. The one position that jumps off the page is Safety. 2 in 16 years for a position needing 2 at a time?
We do tend to agree a lot ... because we usually end up being right. But I also respectfully and humongously disagree about both the top 5 guys from both years and the depth. Foster, Davis, Kwon, Cunningham, and McKinley (I won't be that guy and add Watt because I wasn't super high on him - I was probably wrong there. Reddick and Bowser were kinda meh to me too) absolutely blow the LBs you posted (Edmunds and Jefferson would be there ... I might slide Moore, Evans, and Kiser in front of a few of those other ones. Someone needs to show me the tape where Smith shows coverage instincts because I just can't get behind a thumper who's smaller than all of our safeties. Decent prospect. 11? What???) out of the water. I'd take any of them over any of those 5.
Smith would have to be a coverage dynamo for me to get behind that, Edmunds is potential galore and if he hits some of those combine marks at 19 years old ... gonna be tough to ignore ... but he clearly needs development, Vander Esch doesn't use his size like he should and doesn't look to be real athletic anyhow ... he could be exposed in underpants, I like Jefferson as well but nothing really jumps off the page for me ... he just looks all around solid but unspectacular ... and I'm having a tough time pegging a position for him ... if I was more comfortable with his instincts in the middle (overall, really) I'd be pumping him up pretty hard, and Sam who is in the same boat with Kiser and Jewell who need to run well at the combine to avoid the dreaded '2 down' label.
I just don't see the warts with last year's group. Foster had the most blemishes but also the most talent ... ultimate boom or bust ... Canton bound if he can keep it up. I wish I saw Foster when I watch Smith.
And there's no way they're going to test as well ... top 5 or entire class. 4.6s like it was cool all day ... this group won't touch that. Smith is the only sure thing except for maybe Butler, O'Daniel, and Scales ... who all have no choice but to test great with their less than ideal size and instincts. When we compare the two groups combine numbers here shortly it's going to be night and day.
I saw a long list of LBs I'd be comfortable using picks on last year. I honestly could've gone LB and S in every round with how it played out ... hypothetically, of course. There are maybe 10 this year that I have an eye on but every single one of them have question marks that has me keeping the safety on. Last year Davis had people knocking (rightly so) his instincts but he's miles ahead of Jefferson. Stuff like that.
I like Moore better than all of them so I could just be crazy.
I can get on board with this DEF:
Jones Eliot TJ Howard Tank
Edmunds Raekwon
Front 4
Also subbing in an additional DE for a Bear Front or McCain for a big Dime
The only issue I have with this:
1. We are allocating 2 premium picks on Def.
2. Can Edmunds cover RBs in what will be a base Nickel
3. Is Edmunds BPA at 11
4. Does the pick really work without additionally obtaining Elliot. Meaning we can't bank on Elliot being available. Alternatives?
Sorry for not being clearer, but I was not including pass-rush LB's like Watt, Bowser, and Reddick.
Disagree about Davis having better instincts than Jefferson . Jefferson guesses sometimes, but he's much sharper and quicker to react than Davis. Coming into the season, I was in wait-and-see mode with him, because I was concerned about his ability to see the play and react in time, but the move to OLB did him well. If you watch Jefferson and Edmunds' games vs Oklahoma State, you'll notice that Jefferson is currently the better LB, who gets in on more plays, but Edmunds is 1 1/2 years younger.
Disagree on Vander Esch. He's big and fast, and he bodies OL at the POA. That's something that Jefferson, Edmunds, and Vander Esch share. If they get a shoulder in the backfield, OL won't wash them away from the play. Vander Esch isn't as long as Cunningham, and his instincts vs the run are a half-level lower, but he sees the pass better, and he looks significantly faster and more explosive. Cunningham ran in the 4.7's.
In we compare Foster, Cunningham, McMillan, and Davis to Smith, Edmunds, Jefferson, and Vander Esch (leaving out Christian Sam to make it 4 vs 4), we should probably look at the similar players.
Foster vs Smith - give me Smith, who looks faster and sees the play a little quicker, and is 2 years younger than Foster was coming out. Foster does have a better frame.
Davis vs Jefferson - I'll take Jefferson, who makes more plays, has a better frame, and is probably even more athletic. They're almost exactly the same age leaving school.
Cunningham vs Vander Esch - again, give me the 2018 guy, who has more speed, strength, and makes more plays in the passing game, without sacrificing much vs the run. Vander Esch is just slightly younger than Cunningham was.
McMillan vs Edmunds - these guys aren't as similar as the other pairings, with McMillan being more of an ILB, but Edmunds is the better prospect. He's more fluid, bigger, stronger, and he makes more impact plays. He's also 1 1/2 years younger than McMillan was coming out of Ohio State.
With regard to off-ball LB's, 2017 had a good group, with these guys ranging from late-1st to early-2nd RD players. 2018's top guys range from early-1st to mid-1st.
You are right- it doesn't have to be Elliot.Derwin james biggest weakness that I see is true centerfield play. It’s better than tj or reshad but I wouldn’t call it a true strength
Nor would I check off that dime centerfield box with this add. Although I might give it a year to see how it goes.
James would be doing a lot of carrying coverage for me vs size some hybrid package stuff and some 2 deep safety and interchangeable safety ask mixed in plus some package man cover slot run
Not really. But you keep trying until you get the guy.
Miami QBs drafted since Brady in 2000:
2001 Heupel (6th)
2007 Beck (2nd)
2008 Henne (2nd)
2009 White (2nd)
2012 Tannehill (1st)
2016 Doughty (7th)
The Patriots, with Brady, have drafted 9 QBs since drafting Brady. Think about that.
I disagree with your statement that this is about luck. You can get lucky or unlucky occasionally (say a draft pick overdoses the next day) but over time superior talent evaluation wins out. Some systems are far better than others. Miami has flat out failed in this area for far far too long.