Flynnsanity

[MD]

Yards after the catch is a product of system, quarterback and receiver, probably in that order. The system guides what routes are being run and how the ball is being thrown to the players. It's a simple fact of the matter that some routes are RAC routes and some are not. The quarterback has to make timely decisions, has to execute so the defense doesn't know what he's doing, and he has to get a CATCHABLE ball with great placement in order for the receiver to run after the catch. Then the receiver may or may not have to shake a tackler or two in order to get some extra yards.

No matter how you slice it, the Packers' surrounding cast got a LOT of help from Matt Flynn in that game. It was a game played without Greg Jennings, the team's most talented receiver. It was a game played against a team that wanted to win very badly.

There's clear bias going on here. If Aaron Rodgers has that game then it's a testament to his greatness. Aaron Rodgers had 47% of his yards after the catch but you don't hear people talking about how he is overrated and made by his supporting cast. The very next week Drew Brees reproduces Matt Flynn's performance against the same team and once again that's a testament to his being one of the best to ever play the game. Matt Flynn has that game and it's like, whatever, a bunch of his yards came after the catch. Clear bias.

And no, Flynn's stock is not based on one game. First off, it's two games. He had a 100 passer rating against a 14-2 football team that allowed 81 passer ratings form all the other QBs they faced that year. Secondly, it's probably just as much about the buzz coming out of Packers camps and preseason as it is the regular and preseason games. Fact of the matter is the GMs around the league have lots of friends no longer in the business and those friends are free to attend training camps and look at players. Those people become the eyes and ears for players making noise in camp that maybe you don't get a chance to see in the regular season much.

How do you think Matt Schaub gets traded to the Texans for MORE than two 2nd round picks? He didn't have appreciably more attempts than Matt Flynn. Schaub had 162 pass attempts in Atlanta, Flynn has 132 pass attempts in Green Bay. Schaub had 1033 yards, 6 TDs and 6 INTs coming out of Atlanta. Flynn has 1015 yards, 9 TDs and 5 INTs. How do you think Matt Hasselbeck garners 1st round trade interest not only of Mike Holmgren, who knew Hasselbeck from coaching him, but also Rick Spielman and Dave Wannstedt, who didn't know Hasselbeck at all? You think it was Hasselbeck's whopping 29 attempts in the regular season?

You know people always paint the picture so their subject stands out. Very nice statistical info.

 

[ckparrothead]

exactly...definitely bias here...if its rodgers he's gods gift to the position if its flynn he's a product of the system and talent around him...that kind of stuff doesn't fly with me

The better argument is really to keep pounding on the fact that it's just two games, that it's just 130 pass attempts. There's a lot you don't know about the guy and how he'll handle a full season once the NFL starts to adjust to him. No matter what we say, that's a good argument.

But there are some lines of argument people are using that just don't make sense.

 

[hoops]

The better argument is really to keep pounding on the fact that it's just two games, that it's just 130 pass attempts. There's a lot you don't know about the guy and how he'll handle a full season once the NFL starts to adjust to him. No matter what we say, that's a good argument.

But there are some lines of argument people are using that just don't make sense.

thats true...that is a better argument to be made...but i think people could use that argument about a lot of guys and not just the ones who never panned out...even though those are the ones they would focus on

 

[maso3348]

He won both games. QUOTE]

He actually lost against NE.

 

[jim1]

As I noted in the other thread, quoting 223 of Flynn's 480 yards in that game coming from yards after catch is a PERFECT example of quoting statistics without understanding them.

It's a statistic BY someone who doesn't understand it, MEANT for people that don't understand it.

About 47% of Aaron Rodgers' passing yards this season came from yards after catch. 223 of 480 = 46.5%. Almost identical.

Sure. I'd like to see what percentage of the time Rodgers' statistics were blown up because his RB took a flip pass and turned it into an 80 yard TD and how often blown tackles and lousy coverage contributed to good plays turning into medium to long TDs. Of course Rodgers has benefitted in the past from his receivers really aiding the cause and opposing defenses sucking, but he has a body of work that shows how often his arm, feet and mind result in great plays and outstanding QB production. Not all YAC are created equally- Flynn benefitted in that Lions game mightily from factors other than his own good play.

All you have to do is watch Rodgers play QB and throw the ball to know that he's twice the QB that Flynn will ever be. If stats were the end all and be all of rating a player, and small amounts of statistics at that, then Flynn's QBR is higher than Rodgers' for all I know, because of that one game. Does that mean that he's a better Quarterback than Rodgers? Of course not. Stats sometimes lie. They measure finite results, not the quality behind those results or mitigating circumstances.

There are different ways for a QB to accumulate YAC- sometimes it's a result of great throws, leading a receiver to where they want to be to run with the rock after the catch, sometimes a quick dump off turns in to a huge play- kudos to the receiver. Sometimes the opposing defense and especially their secondary play like crap and fail to make plays, tackle after the reception, etc. And that leads to inflated stats. I have a feeling, at least from what I saw, that Flynn's YAC that are reflected in his big numbers against the Lions are more due to his receivers making great plays and the Lions secondary sucking arse. It doesn't mean by any means that Flynn didn't play a very good game, but again- color me unimpressed, especially as per the notion that Flynn is now Mr. Wonderful.

 

[hoops]

i've seen rodgers throw a screen against an all out blitz for a 60 yard plus td many times...just like i've seen rodgers come to the los and see off man tight red zone coverage against nelson and rise and fire and let nelson stiff arm the db and walk in for a td...just like i've seen rodgers come to the los in the tight red and see finley flexed out against a db rise and fire a back shoulder perfectly timed and perfectly placed td...

all of which flynn showed in that detroit game...to be honest i came away saying to myself matt flynn looks like a poor mans aarond rodgers today minus the back shoulder throws between the 20's and to jennings who didn't play and rodgers and jennings are so famous for...i saw flynn step up in the pocket against quick initial edge pressure feel pressure from the backside and side step to give himself time to throw and when he did scramble laterally his eyes were still downfield looking for a pass option...

again all of which i have seen from rodgers...only thing i didn;t see is rodgers howitzer arm...but i saw plenty good timing and placement of the ball to allow for the rac that everyone seems to be so focused on...same stuff i see with rodgers

 

[MexDolfan]

I remain amazed at the furor and salivation over Matt Flynn. Not only the thought of signing him to a long term deal paying roughly $14,000,000 a year, but the current twist as well, the added reach-around of possibly coughing up a 2nd rd pick for this one game wonder. Screw that.


No matter how one dissects it or attempts to justify it, this is a former 7th rd pick and one game wonder who has created a furor over one great game, a meaningless game for the Packers- I've heard the whole Lions avoiding the Saints argument, but as per Flynn and the Packers, the pressure was off in some ways, in other ways it was on in that Flynn had his opportunity to make a FA impression. No matter how you cut it, the Packers had nothing to lose in pumping up Flynn's value- now, low and behold, they might want a 2nd rd pick for his services? They can shove it.

Here's some food for thought as per Flynn and his marvelous one game, and to whether or not he's worth devoting $14,000,000 a year for and the nauseating prospect of throwing a much needed 2nd rd pick into the mix for him, a pick I'd much rather use on Brandon Weeden or Coby Fleener:

"Dolphins coach Joe Philbin, whose quarterback opinion carries great weight with GM Jeff Ireland, thinks highly of Green Bay’s Matt Flynn and Miami has interest in him if they don’t get Peyton Manning. But here’s a precautionary note pointed out to us about Flynn’s signature game (480 yards, six touchdowns against Detroit on Jan. 1): A lot of his damage was done against two defensive backs ranked in the bottom quarter of the league (Chris Harris and Alphonso Smith) and a cornerback (Chris Houston) who was limited that day because of injury. Plus, the Packers had 223 yards after catch."

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/#storylink=cpy

I've watched the key plays of that game and I'd like to see the whole thing, not sure how to find it. The first thing that I noticed, after recognizing that Flynn has an average arm, is how completely pumped up those stats were by his receivers' YAC, often turning some good passes into TDs, and how those receivers and Ryan Grant abused a crappy Lions secondary. That signature game, at first glance, didn't look so signature to me. If Flynn gets a huge contract out of this and the Packers get a 2nd rd pick, Flynn should be buying Range Rovers for Ryan Grant, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. Color me unimpressed.

Judge for yourself:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHjJ2lipORQ

Let me start by pointing that the draft position where someone was picked has nothing to do with his real value as player.

NFL Scouts have a task that isn't rocket science, it's more complicated. In rocket science everything has a cause and it's reasonable predictable every behavior. A well designed machine should be successful, but humans aren't machines. With players, everything could turn the best element into fail.

I mean for each former first round superstar like Jake Long, Eli Manning or Peyton Manning has been stellar players according to their pedigree, there's a bust like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf or Ki-Jana Carter. But also there are great players outside the first round. It's well known that Tom Brady was a 6th rounders (199th pick overall), Joe Montana a 3rd rounder (82nd overall), while Arian Foster was an undrafted free agent.

Coaches have the responsibility of obtaining the best of each player in their roster. Sometimes a guy requires more time to develop, sometimes the system is inadequate for him and sometimes you're competing with a superstar that never will allow you to shine.

Rarely NFL teams place more than one QB on the field, so backup passer is ignored most of times. Brett Favre was Chis Miller's backup, while Matt Schaub was Michael Vick's backup on the Atlanta Falcons before being traded. Of course that there have being horrendous cases like A.J. Feeley or Kevin Kolb.

All the stats and the few effective experience that Flynn gets are important for other teams. Joe Philbin is the man who knows better on Matt Flynn's capabilities and potential. What our HC thinks about Flynn as starting QB, should be enough to go for him or look elsewhere. But as he won't come cheap, there's also a complicated benefit/cost evaluation to make.

If Packers make a greedy act of placing a franchise tag on him, his hiring in Miami is pretty unlikely. Not because he doesn't deserves the payment, but because that would place him out of our budget. Of course that looks as merely sports reporter speculation, because even when they signed Finley, it's insane to see them tagging him.
I mean, How to pay a one-year franchise tag at $14 million with only $7 million of cap room? :crazy:

They could get close by restructuring some contracts and releasing old stars like Chad Clifton and Donald Driver. But biggest problem about it is they could be in serious risk of no finding a trade parter willing to pay a mammoth contract and give up important draft picks. Also aside of financial issues, such situation could create a locker room chaos as their backup would be getting more money than a starter who's considered the best QB of the league.

The "G" on Packers' logo means "Greatness" not "Green Bay", and they want to give more weapons to Rodgers in order to be contenders. So they could be playing dice with the franchise tag, but I don't see it happening.

 

[jim1]

Let me start by pointing that the draft position where someone was picked has nothing to do with his real value as player.

NFL Scouts have a task that isn't rocket science, it's more complicated. In rocket science everything has a cause and it's reasonable predictable every behavior. A well designed machine should be successful, but humans aren't machines. With players, everything could turn the best element into fail.

I mean for each former first round superstar like Jake Long, Eli Manning or Peyton Manning has been stellar players according to their pedigree, there's a bust like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf or Ki-Jana Carter. But also there are great players outside the first round. It's well known that Tom Brady was a 6th rounders (199th pick overall), Joe Montana a 3rd rounder (82nd overall), while Arian Foster was an undrafted free agent.

Coaches have the responsibility of obtaining the best of each player in their roster. Sometimes a guy requires more time to develop, sometimes the system is inadequate for him and sometimes you're competing with a superstar that never will allow you to shine.

Rarely NFL teams place more than one QB on the field, so backup passer is ignored most of times. Brett Favre was Chis Miller's backup, while Matt Schaub was Michael Vick's backup on the Atlanta Falcons before being traded. Of course that there have being horrendous cases like A.J. Feeley or Kevin Kolb.

All the stats and the few effective experience that Flynn gets are important for other teams. Joe Philbin is the man who knows better on Matt Flynn's capabilities and potential. What our HC thinks about Flynn as starting QB, should be enough to go for him or look elsewhere. But as he won't come cheap, there's also a complicated benefit/cost evaluation to make.

If Packers make a greedy act of placing a franchise tag on him, his hiring in Miami is pretty unlikely. Not because he doesn't deserves the payment, but because that would place him out of our budget. Of course that looks as merely sports reporter speculation, because even when they signed Finley, it's insane to see them tagging him.
I mean, How to pay a one-year franchise tag at $14 million with only $7 million of cap room? :crazy:

They could get close by restructuring some contracts and releasing old stars like Chad Clifton and Donald Driver. But biggest problem about it is they could be in serious risk of no finding a trade parter willing to pay a mammoth contract and give up important draft picks. Also aside of financial issues, such situation could create a locker room chaos as their backup would be getting more money than a starter who's considered the best QB of the league.

The "G" on Packers' logo means "Greatness" not "Green Bay", and they want to give more weapons to Rodgers in order to be contenders. So they could be playing dice with the franchise tag, but I don't see it happening.

Maybe by letting Paul Soliai walk? 14 mil was a guestimate- feel free to make it 10 milion, twelve million, whatever. The point is big money- I'm not sure exactly what Kevin Kolb is making, but I would imagine that's the general range, if not a bit higher, that Flynn and his agent will be asking for. I'd rather have Matt Moore and the money to shore up other positions, draft Brandon Weeden if you can. A truck load of money AND a 2nd round pick? Flynnsanity.

 

[MexDolfan]

As I noted in the other thread, quoting 223 of Flynn's 480 yards in that game coming from yards after catch is a PERFECT example of quoting statistics without understanding them.

It's a statistic BY someone who doesn't understand it, MEANT for people that don't understand it.

About 47% of Aaron Rodgers' passing yards this season came from yards after catch. 223 of 480 = 46.5%. Almost identical.

Excellent observation.

WCO is a system that creates successful passers once they adopt the philosophy of creating chances for their receivers, it's a matter of making the system work. They don't need the cannon arm or the elusive style, just the tools to find the guy with most chances to make a big play.

 

[MexDolfan]

Maybe by letting Paul Soliai walk? 14 mil was a guestimate- feel free to make it 10 milion, twelve million, whatever. The point is big money- I'm not sure exactly what Kevin Kolb is making, but I would imagine that's the general range, if not a bit higher, that Flynn and his agent will be asking for. I'd rather have Matt Moore and the money to shore up other positions, draft Brandon Weeden if you can. A truck load of money AND a 2nd round pick? Flynnsanity.

Our projected cap space is close to 16 million. That doesn't include Paul Soliai anyhow, as he's a free agent.

A franchise tagged Flynn would mean 14.4 million, leaving less than 2 million and remember our team requires upgrade at RT, RG, TE, RB, OLB, DE, FS & SS.

Of course there are ways to create some room by reworking huge contracts of superstars like Jake Long, Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby, but there's no enough money to build the team.

To make it clear, the insane contract Kevin Kolb of 5 year/63 million is more cap-friendly than such thing. Kevin Kolb counted 4 million in 2011 and will impact 10 million on 2012.

Also when i said "I mean, How to pay a one-year franchise tag at $14 million with only $7 million of cap room?", I was meaning about the Packers. If they place the tag flag on him that would mean serious problems fro them.

 

[jim1]

Our projected cap space is close to 16 million. That doesn't include Paul Soliai anyhow, as he's a free agent.

A franchise tagged Flynn would mean 14.4 million, leaving less than 2 million and remember our team requires upgrade at RT, RG, TE, RB, OLB, DE, FS & SS.

Of course there are ways to create some room by reworking huge contracts of superstars like Jake Long, Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby, but there's no enough money to build the team.

To make it clear, the insane contract Kevin Kolb of 5 year/63 million is more cap-friendly than such thing. Kevin Kolb counted 4 million in 2011 and will impact 10 million on 2012.

Those sound like good reasons to me to stick with Matt Moore, draft Brandon Weeden and spend the money that would be spent on signing Matt Flynn elsewhere.

 

[hoops]

Our projected cap space is close to 16 million. That doesn't include Paul Soliai anyhow, as he's a free agent.

A franchise tagged Flynn would mean 14.4 million, leaving less than 2 million and remember our team requires upgrade at RT, RG, TE, RB, OLB, DE, FS & SS.

Of course there are ways to create some room by reworking huge contracts of superstars like Jake Long, Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby, but there's no enough money to build the team.

To make it clear, the insane contract Kevin Kolb of 5 year/63 million is more cap-friendly than such thing. Kevin Kolb counted 4 million in 2011 and will impact 10 million on 2012.

so you're tellin me when you trade for a tagged player you auto assume the cap hit that tag carries for that season...i don't think thats accurate...it seems to me you can work out a long term contract with said player and in doing so lower your current year cap hit...i don't think your eating $14 mil against your cap in 2012 if you trade for flynn and sign him to a long term deal...i just don't

 

[MexDolfan]

Yards after the catch is a product of system, quarterback and receiver, probably in that order. The system guides what routes are being run and how the ball is being thrown to the players. It's a simple fact of the matter that some routes are RAC routes and some are not. The quarterback has to make timely decisions, has to execute so the defense doesn't know what he's doing, and he has to get a CATCHABLE ball with great placement in order for the receiver to run after the catch. Then the receiver may or may not have to shake a tackler or two in order to get some extra yards.

No matter how you slice it, the Packers' surrounding cast got a LOT of help from Matt Flynn in that game. It was a game played without Greg Jennings, the team's most talented receiver. It was a game played against a team that wanted to win very badly.

There's clear bias going on here. If Aaron Rodgers has that game then it's a testament to his greatness. Aaron Rodgers had 47% of his yards after the catch but you don't hear people talking about how he is overrated and made by his supporting cast. The very next week Drew Brees reproduces Matt Flynn's performance against the same team and once again that's a testament to his being one of the best to ever play the game. Matt Flynn has that game and it's like, whatever, a bunch of his yards came after the catch. Clear bias.

And no, Flynn's stock is not based on one game. First off, it's two games. He had a 100 passer rating against a 14-2 football team that allowed 81 passer ratings form all the other QBs they faced that year. Secondly, it's probably just as much about the buzz coming out of Packers camps and preseason as it is the regular and preseason games. Fact of the matter is the GMs around the league have lots of friends no longer in the business and those friends are free to attend training camps and look at players. Those people become the eyes and ears for players making noise in camp that maybe you don't get a chance to see in the regular season much.

How do you think Matt Schaub gets traded to the Texans for MORE than two 2nd round picks? He didn't have appreciably more attempts than Matt Flynn. Schaub had 162 pass attempts in Atlanta, Flynn has 132 pass attempts in Green Bay. Schaub had 1033 yards, 6 TDs and 6 INTs coming out of Atlanta. Flynn has 1015 yards, 9 TDs and 5 INTs. How do you think Matt Hasselbeck garners 1st round trade interest not only of Mike Holmgren, who knew Hasselbeck from coaching him, but also Rick Spielman and Dave Wannstedt, who didn't know Hasselbeck at all? You think it was Hasselbeck's whopping 29 attempts in the regular season?

Great post!!!

 

[NY8123]

Maybe by letting Paul Soliai walk? 14 mil was a guestimate- feel free to make it 10 milion, twelve million, whatever. The point is big money- I'm not sure exactly what Kevin Kolb is making, but I would imagine that's the general range, if not a bit higher, that Flynn and his agent will be asking for. I'd rather have Matt Moore and the money to shore up other positions, draft Brandon Weeden if you can. A truck load of money AND a 2nd round pick? Flynnsanity.

The estimate for Flynn's services are around 5 to 6 million a year with a back loaded contract because of the uncertainty involved with him, not 15 mill. Peyton Manning however will command a number close to 15 mil if you want him in South Beach.

I have no idea where this non-sense about franchised QB numbers come into play. If the Packer franchise Flynn, good for them they will have the highest paid backup in league history. This comparison that the media is doing with Cassel is complete nonsense as well, Cassel played in 16 games and stated 15 games for ****s sake, Flynn has two under his belt. Cassel's body of work was a little more compressive at the time than Flynn.

I swear the media loves to write about utter nonsense.

 

[MexDolfan]

so you're tellin me when you trade for a tagged player you auto assume the cap hit that tag carries for that season...i don't think thats accurate...it seems to me you can work out a long term contract with said player and in doing so lower your current year cap hit...i don't think your eating $14 mil against your cap in 2012 if you trade for flynn and sign him to a long term deal...i just don't

It means you'll have to rework his contract and it's a risk that such thing prevails. You would be in such situation until he signs a new deal, creating temporal cap issues to add free agents. Also that situation could become crucial if contract talks keep after the draft.