Hayden Fox's Assessment Week 2 One Assessment
- Thread starter Hayden Fox
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gregorygrant83
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He was nursing a hamstring injury coming into the game, so if they sat him down when the game was out of reach it would make sense.
EmperorPhin
Scout Team
How have you not heard of dinking? Dink & dunk dinking & dunking
---------- Post added at 10:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 PM ----------
Cam wake made his 2 plays for the year last week
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Other than a drop in the Pats game he's played great. Constantly getting open deep with two nice TD catches. He's not the problem.
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Tannehill is not struggling due to a new system. He is struggling with pocket awareness and accuracy. Doesn't matter if they are running the Run & Shoot or the Wishbone, if you can't throw it accurately and you don't understand how to handle pressure in the pocket, you are not going to be a starting QB in the NFL for very long.
Lloyd Heilbrunn
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FYI Henderson was not undrafted but it still was sure disappointing to see him shutout Wake. :jawdrop:
Dick Pepperwood
Practice Squad
Jason Trusnick sucks.
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When is Misi getting back ? Trusnik is missed on special teams and he's never been starter quality although not from effort.
* In the 25 years I've bet the Fury of Anti Revenge (FAR) first half angle, it's absolutely remarkable how often the road team has zero points at halftime, and sometimes never threatens to score. It's by far the most powerful situational factor I'm aware of. Twenty years ago I was petrified of mentioning that angle, on Las Vegas radio shows or even in public outside my friends. Eventually I realized it simply doesn't matter. Regardless of how dominant that scenario is, fans and media are so fixated on simplistic revenge they don't want to believe it actually works the other way in some situations, that the prior victor is more energized and frenzied. All week, per usual, I was reading and hearing that the Dolphins would be determined to settle the score. Besides, I'm not going to make a billion dollars on that trend. I bet it heavily by my standards and am doing well. But I'm not so aggressive that I'm moving first half numbers all over town, or something that would draw full attention to the FAR trend.
* I didn't feel bad at all at halftime. Trailing 9-0 was perfectly logical in a FAR situation, although I hoped I would win the first half bet on Buffalo by more narrow margin, allowing Miami room to rally in the second half. It was unbelievable when Boomer Esiason emphasized on CBS halftime that Dolphin fans were livid at the first half. Manuel is a field goal quarterback and he manged nothing but field goals. We were getting the ball to open the second half. I know I'm in the minority but I thought it was absolutely the proper move to run out the clock in the first half. FAR is simply too powerful at that point. I don't know how many times I've benefited from cheap points off turnover at the end of a half while betting that trend.
* Once FAR begins to wear off, the road team finds openings and suddenly feels energized. It wasn't surprising at all when we started to move to open the third quarter. I made a mistake the other day when I posted the Dolphins had more opportunity for a margin than the Bills did. The system is more powerful than subjectivity. That's why I rely on systems 85% of the time. But even at halftime I still believed the Dolphins could score to open the third quarter, possibly forcing Manuel to panic and falter, eventually reversing the outcome of the game. I still think that was possible if Tannehill had hit the 2nd or 3rd down passes on that opening third quarter drive. A touchdown there is absolutely critical. He threw behind Matthews on second down at the goal line and then the ridiculous air ball to Gibson.
* The kickoff return was a catastrophe. That essentially forgave Manuel for settling for field goals in the first half. I don't absolve Sturgis from blame. In this era the ideal kickoff depth is 4-6 yards deep. The idiot returners will run it out from there. The return team schemes all week and doesn't want it to be for naught. The coverage team can splatter the return man inside the 15 if that kick is run out from 4-6 yards deep. But when you drop it near the goal line or only a couple of yards deep, it's like a standard return with proper timing and too much can go wrong. Also, if Sturgis is going to be worthless in covering the kick at least make the sideline your friend or force Spiller to cut inside. Sturgis did neither.
* Seantrel Henderson generally toyed with Cameron Wake. I've seen some apologetic posts here. Absurd. We had to win that matchup. Your mediocre players won't suddenly be great so your supposedly great players have to qualify for the description. Wake did none of that. He was earning stalemates at best, and when he occasionally broke free it was late and irrelevant. Still, he hadn't been abused until Spiller's long run. I was screaming at that one, for Wake not to allow Henderson to turn him outside. I watched Henderson use the same technique so often with the Canes. He even gave Wake the right shoulder nudge after Spiller was long through the hole. Again, that was familiar from college. That burst play again bailed out Manuel. And it was bizarre how many Dolphins took false steps on that play. Watch the tape and count. Trusnik, Jenkins, Delmas all diagnosed improperly and got stuck inside. Finnegan bought the reverse fake and took himself out of it. Then Grimes whiffed the tackle downfield, allowing 20 more yards. Wake started it but everyone else contributed
* I'll point out that I wanted Henderson in the draft. He was my post draft, "Who Would You Have Taken?" list. Of course, we got Fede at that spot. Could work out but right now one guy is a successful starter and the other is a nice projection based on two opening preseason games. Henderson was never a problem with the Canes other than marijuana use. He was effective on the field and always a very positive team oriented player during the games. Dropping him so far made very little sense since he wasn't involved in domestic issues or examples of extremely problematic attitude. I'll continue to assert that it's wise to pay attention to high school rating. You won't hit every time but when you do it can be massive. Also, Canes players often look far better in the pros in this era. The coaching at Coral Gables can be pathetic. That has to be part of the handicapping.
* Wake at this age will be terrific on occasion but have increasing number of moderate or forgettable games. He's not immune from natural decline simply because he was idle for many years. That was always adjusting nonsense.
* I thought Sammy Watkins fumbled. Very surprising that review didn't take longer. It would have been an undeserved miracle but I was willing to beg. BTW, Watkins wasn't close to 100%. Anybody who followed him at Clemson can attest to that. The real Sammy Watkins is exponentially more explosive and daring than anything we saw today. Great credit to him for all he produced considering how knicked and hurting he was.
* Ju'Waun James played beyond my expectation. Nice natural adjustment of hands and feet. Battled well. We did catch a break when he obviously moved on 4th and 3 yet it wasn't whistled. I'm not sure we don't punt if that had correctly been penalized to 4th and 8
* Our interior defense against the run was decent considering how the game unfolded
* Landry doesn't need to be returning kicks. He's not a threat to break anything unless the opposition falls down and he doesn't look natural doing it.
* You know you're a Bar Stool if you adjust Tannehill to the moon and scream that Dalton is terrible. Raise your hand if you are a Bar Stool. Never mind, just stay in your seat and blather to the guy next to you. He'll undoubtedly agree. Besides, we can wait for the playoffs to mock Dalton and feel good about ourselves.
* Tannehill doesn't deserve to be ripped. Why are there so many threads? Tannehill is playing Tannehill. He looks the same as every previous season. I didn't realize that Big O guy had moved to 560. I heard him ranting late this afternoon, but making the same point I have, that wide receiver in college is a bit of a tip off. You know you're a Bar Stool and a 40 Percenter if you think wide receiver in college was a positive, something that can be overcome with experience. It's still hard to believe we had to spend the 8th pick on a quarterback/wide receiver combo instead of a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The good news is I doubt Hickey would make that type of basic mistake.
* That play by play goof Tom McCarthy (?) was ghastly. I can understand one mistake on remembering what down it was, but not several in short order. He called a 3 yard rush a 13 yard rush. He emphasized short kickoff without acknowledging it was booted from the 20 after a penalty.
* Mike Wallace is displaying incredibly high intensity level by his standards. We can't count on that continuing if things start to go poorly, either for the team or his fragile ego
* Brian Hartline truly works at his craft. He is perfecting FAC or Fall After Catch. Sometimes it's FBC or Fall Before Catch. He's going down before the ball arrives. Hartline is finding ways to use the entire educational alphabet. He needs to find a D. The rest of the league tabulates YAC but with Hartline there should be a weekly measure of how many yards or inches (FAC) before he crashes. It reminds me of the lunar module when I was a kid. It was well known that vehicle had a severely limited fuel supply and therefore not much range.
* Brandon Fields got away with many shanks last season that landed in bounds and darted 15 or 20 yards downfield. I mentioned it at the time. Today was hardly surprising. He's becoming less reliable game to game, although he still has plenty of effective moments. I still don't understand why teams don't use an up man on punt returns, like Shula did with Dick Anderson. He saved 15 or 20 yards with regularity on that hard Poly Turf
* The Chiefs next week will be in desperation mode. Anybody who takes that game for granted is nuts. An 0-2 team on the road is one of the most well known high energy scenarios in the NFL. It's not as powerful as FAR at home. Nothing is. But we really needed Kansas City to win today to avoid their best effort next weekend.
* I didn't feel bad at all at halftime. Trailing 9-0 was perfectly logical in a FAR situation, although I hoped I would win the first half bet on Buffalo by more narrow margin, allowing Miami room to rally in the second half. It was unbelievable when Boomer Esiason emphasized on CBS halftime that Dolphin fans were livid at the first half. Manuel is a field goal quarterback and he manged nothing but field goals. We were getting the ball to open the second half. I know I'm in the minority but I thought it was absolutely the proper move to run out the clock in the first half. FAR is simply too powerful at that point. I don't know how many times I've benefited from cheap points off turnover at the end of a half while betting that trend.
* Once FAR begins to wear off, the road team finds openings and suddenly feels energized. It wasn't surprising at all when we started to move to open the third quarter. I made a mistake the other day when I posted the Dolphins had more opportunity for a margin than the Bills did. The system is more powerful than subjectivity. That's why I rely on systems 85% of the time. But even at halftime I still believed the Dolphins could score to open the third quarter, possibly forcing Manuel to panic and falter, eventually reversing the outcome of the game. I still think that was possible if Tannehill had hit the 2nd or 3rd down passes on that opening third quarter drive. A touchdown there is absolutely critical. He threw behind Matthews on second down at the goal line and then the ridiculous air ball to Gibson.
* The kickoff return was a catastrophe. That essentially forgave Manuel for settling for field goals in the first half. I don't absolve Sturgis from blame. In this era the ideal kickoff depth is 4-6 yards deep. The idiot returners will run it out from there. The return team schemes all week and doesn't want it to be for naught. The coverage team can splatter the return man inside the 15 if that kick is run out from 4-6 yards deep. But when you drop it near the goal line or only a couple of yards deep, it's like a standard return with proper timing and too much can go wrong. Also, if Sturgis is going to be worthless in covering the kick at least make the sideline your friend or force Spiller to cut inside. Sturgis did neither.
* Seantrel Henderson generally toyed with Cameron Wake. I've seen some apologetic posts here. Absurd. We had to win that matchup. Your mediocre players won't suddenly be great so your supposedly great players have to qualify for the description. Wake did none of that. He was earning stalemates at best, and when he occasionally broke free it was late and irrelevant. Still, he hadn't been abused until Spiller's long run. I was screaming at that one, for Wake not to allow Henderson to turn him outside. I watched Henderson use the same technique so often with the Canes. He even gave Wake the right shoulder nudge after Spiller was long through the hole. Again, that was familiar from college. That burst play again bailed out Manuel. And it was bizarre how many Dolphins took false steps on that play. Watch the tape and count. Trusnik, Jenkins, Delmas all diagnosed improperly and got stuck inside. Finnegan bought the reverse fake and took himself out of it. Then Grimes whiffed the tackle downfield, allowing 20 more yards. Wake started it but everyone else contributed
* I'll point out that I wanted Henderson in the draft. He was my post draft, "Who Would You Have Taken?" list. Of course, we got Fede at that spot. Could work out but right now one guy is a successful starter and the other is a nice projection based on two opening preseason games. Henderson was never a problem with the Canes other than marijuana use. He was effective on the field and always a very positive team oriented player during the games. Dropping him so far made very little sense since he wasn't involved in domestic issues or examples of extremely problematic attitude. I'll continue to assert that it's wise to pay attention to high school rating. You won't hit every time but when you do it can be massive. Also, Canes players often look far better in the pros in this era. The coaching at Coral Gables can be pathetic. That has to be part of the handicapping.
* Wake at this age will be terrific on occasion but have increasing number of moderate or forgettable games. He's not immune from natural decline simply because he was idle for many years. That was always adjusting nonsense.
* I thought Sammy Watkins fumbled. Very surprising that review didn't take longer. It would have been an undeserved miracle but I was willing to beg. BTW, Watkins wasn't close to 100%. Anybody who followed him at Clemson can attest to that. The real Sammy Watkins is exponentially more explosive and daring than anything we saw today. Great credit to him for all he produced considering how knicked and hurting he was.
* Ju'Waun James played beyond my expectation. Nice natural adjustment of hands and feet. Battled well. We did catch a break when he obviously moved on 4th and 3 yet it wasn't whistled. I'm not sure we don't punt if that had correctly been penalized to 4th and 8
* Our interior defense against the run was decent considering how the game unfolded
* Landry doesn't need to be returning kicks. He's not a threat to break anything unless the opposition falls down and he doesn't look natural doing it.
* You know you're a Bar Stool if you adjust Tannehill to the moon and scream that Dalton is terrible. Raise your hand if you are a Bar Stool. Never mind, just stay in your seat and blather to the guy next to you. He'll undoubtedly agree. Besides, we can wait for the playoffs to mock Dalton and feel good about ourselves.
* Tannehill doesn't deserve to be ripped. Why are there so many threads? Tannehill is playing Tannehill. He looks the same as every previous season. I didn't realize that Big O guy had moved to 560. I heard him ranting late this afternoon, but making the same point I have, that wide receiver in college is a bit of a tip off. You know you're a Bar Stool and a 40 Percenter if you think wide receiver in college was a positive, something that can be overcome with experience. It's still hard to believe we had to spend the 8th pick on a quarterback/wide receiver combo instead of a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The good news is I doubt Hickey would make that type of basic mistake.
* That play by play goof Tom McCarthy (?) was ghastly. I can understand one mistake on remembering what down it was, but not several in short order. He called a 3 yard rush a 13 yard rush. He emphasized short kickoff without acknowledging it was booted from the 20 after a penalty.
* Mike Wallace is displaying incredibly high intensity level by his standards. We can't count on that continuing if things start to go poorly, either for the team or his fragile ego
* Brian Hartline truly works at his craft. He is perfecting FAC or Fall After Catch. Sometimes it's FBC or Fall Before Catch. He's going down before the ball arrives. Hartline is finding ways to use the entire educational alphabet. He needs to find a D. The rest of the league tabulates YAC but with Hartline there should be a weekly measure of how many yards or inches (FAC) before he crashes. It reminds me of the lunar module when I was a kid. It was well known that vehicle had a severely limited fuel supply and therefore not much range.
* Brandon Fields got away with many shanks last season that landed in bounds and darted 15 or 20 yards downfield. I mentioned it at the time. Today was hardly surprising. He's becoming less reliable game to game, although he still has plenty of effective moments. I still don't understand why teams don't use an up man on punt returns, like Shula did with Dick Anderson. He saved 15 or 20 yards with regularity on that hard Poly Turf
* The Chiefs next week will be in desperation mode. Anybody who takes that game for granted is nuts. An 0-2 team on the road is one of the most well known high energy scenarios in the NFL. It's not as powerful as FAR at home. Nothing is. But we really needed Kansas City to win today to avoid their best effort next weekend.
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You are correct. My mistake.
---------- Post added at 05:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:17 AM ----------
Cramps
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I would like to see the UFDA kids get a shot, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis is interesting as tough short yardage guy and quality vet.