Hayden Fox's Draft Assessment

[MRojas4]

Bye bye Eggnog

 

[So Be]

I'd be curious as to who those better options were SB. The market was barren, especially for our scheme and I don't think we had much of a shot at Beadles or Asamoah considering how quickly they signed. I'm not overpaying for Saffold or the Jets old RT...6 mil is simply not worth it for a right tackle. Guard market was WEAK...really weak this year.

And good write up Hayden...though I have trouble believing you saw a big gap between Moses and James considering how high you were on Moses.

FTB, we talked about this before ad during FA. You expected 2 on the OL, and I wanted 3. With Shelly, I thinke we ended up with 1.5 at this point. The options were Asamoah, Beadles, Schwartz, Saffold, Streiff, Howard, Collins, and trading for Mathis. I don't believe the signing early has bearing, as it's an auction. If you do not want to pay the price, you're out.

Streiff had no interest, cross him off the list. Asamoah signed for $4.5 with his agent saying he signed for less but less than who? Beadles was overpaid but, was an option. Schwartz is not a great fit but VG on pass and run. Saffold was not worth the Oak price but, I would have come back in for the $5.5 the Rams paid him. Howard is inconsistant but young (Maybe). I would have also considered Collins at $6M at RT and a viable option to switch if Albert misses games. Finally, Mathis may have been the best overall OL in the NFL last year, and well worth a 3rd round pick. JMO

The Wild Card here may be that Philbin, Hickey, and Benton believe that Dallasw and/or Brenner are better than what was available. I don't see it but, may be wrong. Colledge, wqho you mention, is the best available option for now. Hoping someone better shows up.

 

[RkyDaMan34]

If Hickey had the cards on the table to trade down, well then he blew it! and to think James and Turner who has never played a snap or G(Turner) and now you want him transition to a new position in the NFL? LOL wait until they play the Bills defensive front, Talk about a Rookie hazing... Hickey better be thinking Winston or Colledge because Mario Williams is going to welcome these Rooks to the NFL.. I love my Dolphins but Come on!

 

[FearTheBeard]

FTB, we talked about this before ad during FA. You expected 2 on the OL, and I wanted 3. With Shelly, I thinke we ended up with 1.5 at this point. The options were Asamoah, Beadles, Schwartz, Saffold, Streiff, Howard, Collins, and trading for Mathis. I don't believe the signing early has bearing, as it's an auction. If you do not want to pay the price, you're out.

Streiff had no interest, cross him off the list. Asamoah signed for $4.5 with his agent saying he signed for less but less than who? Beadles was overpaid but, was an option. Schwartz is not a great fit but VG on pass and run. Saffold was not worth the Oak price but, I would have come back in for the $5.5 the Rams paid him. Howard is inconsistant but young (Maybe). I would have also considered Collins at $6M at RT and a viable option to switch if Albert misses games. Finally, Mathis may have been the best overall OL in the NFL last year, and well worth a 3rd round pick. JMO

The Wild Card here may be that Philbin, Hickey, and Benton believe that Dallasw and/or Brenner are better than what was available. I don't see it but, may be wrong. Colledge, wqho you mention, is the best available option for now. Hoping someone better shows up.

To be honest, most of those options, you even say yourself were not entirely viable. Think Saffold wants to uproot his life for the same contract and come here? Probably not, and I don't think he's worth it. Beadles got overpaid by Jax and I can't blame them for not valuing Beadles at 6+m, be cause I think that's far too much for him. Mathis may have been worth a 3rd...but is also a guy making a lot of money right now and wanting a raise on top of that. I don't really think a guard making 7m is worth a 3rd rounder due to the financial implications. There's 31 other teams...but I think you've drawn on plenty of factors as to why these guys weren't picked up. It was a thin market this year.

 

[DolphanB]

You are citing essentially the lower reaches of what an effective DT can weigh if not close to a bright line limit with only a few outliers. So, when Hayden is saying "wide bodied" it is in that context meaning, wide bodied relative to the typical. Paul Soiiai goes 340, not 300. Miami lost a wide body like him and replaced him with a quicker athlete in Earl Mitchell who is a gap penetrator as opposed to a gap filler like Soliai. Ideally you have a rotation of guys who complement each other. Right now, Miami lacks the big wide bodied guy.

Soliai is a 3-4 NT. A 4-3 DT does not need to be (and probably should not be) 340.

MIA rotated Soliai out on passing downs to get better penetration. Mitchell can play all three downs.

 

[Hayden Fox]

Good right up Hayden. A couple of questions if I may.

1. OL - do you see Turner at LG and Smith at RG so as not to have two rookies on one side, or would you go with the Chicago model from last year and let the rookies develop together.

2. You highlight Sims as a possible change - any thoughts on Egnew?

3. Any thoughts on switching Wheeler to SAM and Ellerbe to WILL?

And yes - agree on Greg Likens.

1. OL - do you see Turner at LG and Smith at RG so as not to have two rookies on one side, or would you go with the Chicago model from last year and let the rookies develop together.
I see Turner at LG and Smith at RG. I would think they are most comfortable in the spots you stated.
2. You highlight Sims as a possible change - any thoughts on Egnew?
I think Egnew could be an odd guy out. It is just that Lynch is more similar to Sims IMO. That is why I wondered aloud about him.

3. Any thoughts on switching Wheeler to SAM and Ellerbe to WILL?
I think that the LB's would be served best by leaving them in the spots they played last year. At least they have some experience in the positions they played last year.
And yes - agree on Greg Likens

---------- Post added at 04:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:59 PM ----------

Hayden,

Great write up as usual. I have liked what Hickey has done in free agency and the draft. I really don't mind that the draft wasn't glamorous. We had to fix the O-line and on paper we have workable pieces. Couple of additional thoughts:

1. I would think that Egnew is on the hot seat rather than Sims?
2. I don't understand bringing in all those receivers outside of Landry? I would have rather brought in a large number of running backs for 2 reasons. One, find that big back who can get those difficult 1-2 yards consistently. Second, a fast running back who could possibly return punts and kick-offs.
3. I think the line backers will be better this year and I'm hoping to see Tripp turn into our new Zach Thomas (very hopeful thinking).
4. This year we have basically 2 years of drafts that should have an impact. Hopefully, there will not be too many costly learning on job mistakes.
5. Who is our back up Left Tackle?

---------- Post added at 02:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:33 PM ----------

Hayden,

Great write up as usual. I have liked what Hickey has done in free agency and the draft. I really don't mind that the draft wasn't glamorous. We had to fix the O-line and on paper we have workable pieces. Couple of additional thoughts:

1. I would think that Egnew is on the hot seat rather than Sims?
2. I don't understand bringing in all those receivers outside of Landry? I would have rather brought in a large number of running backs for 2 reasons. One, find that big back who can get those difficult 1-2 yards consistently. Second, a fast running back who could possibly return punts and kick-offs.
3. I think the line backers will be better this year and I'm hoping to see Tripp turn into our new Zach Thomas (very hopeful thinking).
4. This year we have basically 2 years of drafts that should have an impact. Hopefully, there will not be too many costly learning on job mistakes.
5. Who is our back up Left Tackle?

The swing OT is a huge position on a team. It is either Fox (who I wonder makes if he makes the team), Garner (I am a fan of his, but not at LT...yikes) or I suppose Billy Turner.

 

[Hayden Fox]

Well done Hayden. I have only one big question for you or anyone. WHY did Hickey not pay for or, overpay for one more proven guy on the OL in FA? Some say that they did not want to come here, which is silly. After Albert, there were at least six much better options than what we now have. IF Hickey would have signed just one, we would not be having the discussion on being overly concerned od the OL, which is justified,

I would say there are still some decent guards that could really help in FA. I have been on the Wade Smith Wagon for awhile. Daryn Colledge is another guy people have discussed. Davin Joseph? My point is another body at Guard can still be had to at least compete.

I am guessing Joe will assess his group in the OTA's and make a move to sure up the interior if need be.

---------- Post added at 04:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:04 PM ----------

I'd like to bring Satele back to compete/depth or stick him at center and move Pouncey to guard.

Not a good idea, my friend.

 

[Hayden Fox]

Moreno is a 220 lbs power back.



MIA has 4 x 300+ lbs DTs, three of them starting quality. DT is not a weakness.



Nearly this entire offseason has been about building the offense around Tannehill. I am pretty sure the team saw what PFF did - when the OL gave Tannehill more than 2 seconds to throw, he was a top 6 QB last season.



I suspect that Egnew, Miller and Ogbuehi have more to worry about. Gator Hoskins may be slotted as a FB/H-back.

1. Moreno is not a "power back". He might be your best option on the roster, but he was brought to Miami to help pick up blitzes and catches passes from Tannehill.
2. I NEVER said the DT's are a weakness. I DID say that a run stuffing wide body could be help the group that talents consist of gap penetration. I like the group and think they could be excellent at getting after the QB right in his face. I simply wonder in those cold November/December games in which teams are committed to the run, if the Fins are big enough inside. If this team does not win with early penetration, the opposition will be able to have success running the ball.
3. Safe to say that the TE battle during camp will be interesting.

 

[Hayden Fox]

How do you know that James is so much better than those other 3 players? Hell, James could wind up being one of the best 2 linemen taken in the entire draft. We just dont know yet. Lets see them play, then decide. For all you know, those 3 guys you listed could all be better than James.

Secondly, what run on the next group of linemen? There were 4 linemen taken who were projected as 1st round picks. Then James went a few picks later, but much higher than most anticipated. After that, 2 of the guys you mentioned went in round 2 and Moses in like round 3 or something. I hardly call that a run on linemen.

The bottom line on all of that is unless James turns out to be significantly better than those 3 players, Hickey made a colossal mistake by not trading down and getting more picks if a deal was indeed available. Because even if someone had taken James before our eventual pick, those 3 guys you mentioned would have certainly been available.

As for the part about correcting Parcells and Ireland's mistakes.................... wasnt their mistake in that they drafted OL too early and too often while missing opportunities to solve the QB issue? If so, then Hickey might not be correcting mistakes and instead repeating them.

I guess I do not know if James is better or worse than anyone in the draft. However, it is fair to say it was my assessment before the draft that I thought James was taken about where I thought he should go in relation to other players. So, I guess I would answer you the draft tells us now the value of the player. However, you are right that nobody obviously knows.

There was a run on linemen in the early second. My point was the conventional wisdom that a starting caliber RT would be there at 50 was incorrect. Hickey made the right call at snagging James at 19.

I cannot agree with you about when to draft and take linemen. This team was derailed by poor line play last year and the bottom line is the issues had to be addressed with treasure and draft picks.

 

[Hayden Fox]

Amazing how you spinned on the James pick. You had a thread about over and underrated and talked about James should be available at 50 along with Moses and at that point it was a good pick.
So a guy you thought should be available at 50 is now a good pick at 19. OK. The same with quite a bit of the board. All we heard is don't reach on a lineman but as soon as we took one that many did not have rated that high its a good pick.

---------- Post added at 01:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:43 AM ----------



Atlanta had a bad season last year but in comparism to our blue print its not even a discussion at least they have made the playoffs quite a few times but of course not making the playoffs is the same in some people's eyes

Unfair criticism as I made the Man Crush list weeks before the draft. Things change leading up to the draft. To be fair, I could find you posts in which the difference of picking a kid at 19 and 50 is not that big of difference esp. if you need the position.

I also stated that I understood if Hickey need to fill a need considering a run on linemen was possible late 20's through the early second.

James was a good pick and if you look at my "official" mock draft, I had James going to the Fins. By the time the draft rolled around, James going to Miami at 19 was not crazy anymore.

 

[BlueFin]

Positives
· Dennis Hickey was correct to take Ju’wuan James at 19. Yes, it may have been possible to trade down some. However, a RT starved team may have been able to jump Miami and snag James if Hickey had bailed. To me there was a significant drop off from James to Morgan Moses, Joel Bitonio and Cyrus Kouandijo. Hickey must also be given credit for also taking James before the run occurred on the next group of linemen.
· I am pleased that the team drafted a “natural” RT. There are no conversions going on during training camp with James. He can step right in and adjust to the speed of the game.
· I like the current OT situation with Albert and James.
· Some people on this site think that RT is not that important of position. However, when we discuss the idea of blocking a Mario Williams perhaps the position is a tad more important than people are making it. With better RT play last year, Miami would have been in the playoffs. The position is essential.
· Calling it now Jarvis Landry > Odell Beckham Jr.
· I liked that Miami drafted a CB in Walt Aikens to compete with Will Davis. Davis was over-drafted last year and is over his head in the NFL.
· I love that Hickey traded back for a 4[SUP]th[/SUP] rounder in this year’s draft as opposed into the 2015 draft. Some in the media suggested the team should shoot for a pick in the ’15 draft. The Fins need help for this year’s team and I am not convinced that the 2015 draft is as well stocked as this years.
· I am intrigued by the undrafted free agent class.
· Greg Likens worked it big time this past week. He was on the air for 20 plus hours. While I enjoyed Jesse Agler, Likens has picked up the slack and will do a nice job for the fans. The Finsiders work their tails off during the draft.

Negatives
· I am concerned about the LB group. With very few offseason moves, the team has essentially doubled down on Misi, Ellerbe and Wheeler. Perhaps another year in the system will allow them to take additional steps. I am still interested to see if Jelani Jenkins can make a jump in year two and Jordan Tripp seems determined to make a name for himself. With all that said, the LB play last year was well below average and must improve.
The DB’s on the roster are still a question mark for me. I love that Brent Grimes was re-signed. Courtland Finnegan interests me, but the team banking on him returning to his prior level of play from three years ago is very risky. They supposedly love Jamar Taylor, but he has not done much on the field for us to verify what he can do. Will Davis is going to have trouble competing. Walt Aikens is an interesting prospect, but he is a rookie after all. Jimmy Wilson did a nice job as the nickel last year and should be counted on again. At safety, it seems they have decided to roll with two SS-like players. Louis Delmas is also very injury proned. Who are the back ups at Safety? The 2013 DB’s played well for the most part. Is this new group an improvement?
· I am surprised that no RB was drafted that might have been able to push “power back” Daniel Thomas. I would have guessed that a physical presence would have been added by now.
· I would have liked to see a big bodied DT added to the mix. Whether it was UFA or the draft, I wonder if the D-line is too light up front. I think there is a ton of talent that can disrupt with early penetration. I just wonder if Miami can get in a “street fight” with a smash mouth team and win.

Overall Observations
· Hickey and Philbin had to address the Offensive Line. Between yielding 50 plus sacks and the Martin Fiasco, the line needed an upgrade in talent and simply new faces. With Branden Albert, Shelley Smith, Ju’wuan James and Billy Turner, the line has been upgraded and fits the objectives of the offense. The line is now more athletic fitting a ZBS. However, make no mistake, this line was put together to pass block. I expect the team to sling the ball around a ton this year. With the addition of Knowshon Moreno, a tremendous pass blocker, I expect the Dolphins to “pitch and catch” even more than we have seen…and that is a lot.
· If anyone has an issue with the O-line being addressed early in the draft, they must acknowledge that Hickey was simply correcting “mistakes” of Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland. Efforts to improve the line had to happen this offseason.
· People that killed Hickey for going RT at 19 and wanted another player such as Brandin Cooks or Marquise Lee, have to acknowledge that drafting one of those players was not going the difference between 7-9 and 11-5. It is fine to demand the skill player, but just exactly how many wins do you feel a rookie draft pick is worth?
· With that said, this draft was about the development of Ryan Tannehill. Getting him an elite LT in FA, a first round RT and upgrading the Guard positions, the team has given Tannehill a line to give him more time to throw. Moreno will be a major help in blitz pickups that consistently broke down around the young QB last year. Finally, the addition of Jarvis Landry will push the other receivers on the roster. Landry very well could find himself being called upon to make plays for the Dolphins. Tannehill must take another step in becoming a franchise QB and the FO did what they could this offseason to have that improvement become a reality.
· Joe Philbin and his staff must develop players. Kacy Rodgers and Dan Campbell (two holdovers from the previous staff) have done great work improving their units. However, more is needed from this coaching staff helping get players to the next level or two.
It was interesting to listen to the Finsiders interviews of each of the draftees. It was noticeable how intelligent and articulate each pick is. Philbin and · Hickey not only put a value on their college leadership experience, but the intellectual ability of each player. Walt Aikens took some heat on our site and Twitter about his run in with the law at Illinois. However, if anyone listens to his interview with the team run radio program, he seems to understand his mishap and described how he has changed over the years. I was very impressed by Aikens maturity.
· I wonder if Dion Sims is in trouble. Between the drafting of Arthur Lynch and signing of UDFA Harold Hoskin, Sims is going to have to make a jump in order to make the team. I like Sims and think he as some potential. However, with a new GM, Sims might be on the outs.
· How terrible is Adam Beasley? Each offseason he makes outlandish claims. Once again, he was at it this year. “The Dolphins are looking to move up in the draft”. “Zach Martin will be looked at guard first.” Both pre-draft claims prove to be wrong. Beasley is incompetent writer.
· People must remember…and get excited about… that there are in a sense two draft classes coming. With the 2014 class and 2013 kids returning from injury and developing, Miami has an influx of prospects available to them. Dion Jordan and Jamar Taylor are especially going to be looked upon to contribute in big ways. It will be a fun part of training camp to observe.

Excellent post...I will disagree about Finnegan though....he was a pro bowler until he arrived in St. Louis in a system that didn't fit him....he still posted over 100 combined tackles and 3 ints. in 2012........in 2013 he suffered injuries, including an orbital injury that he shouldn't have played with, but as a tough guy he tried to play with it and it was a mistake....but you have to love the toughness.

Finnegan is not done...he just needs to be in the right role and system and he will be fine...he is motivated to regain what was lost in St. Louis due to poor leadership in 2012 and injuries in 2013.....but this ongoing perception that this man slipped the last two years is simply mistaken and wrong.

You will see....barring injury....the real Cortland Finnegan in Miami in 2014.

 

[dlockz]

Unfair criticism as I made the Man Crush list weeks before the draft. Things change leading up to the draft. To be fair, I could find you posts in which the difference of picking a kid at 19 and 50 is not that big of difference esp. if you need the position.

I also stated that I understood if Hickey need to fill a need considering a run on linemen was possible late 20's through the early second.

James was a good pick and if you look at my "official" mock draft, I had James going to the Fins. By the time the draft rolled around, James going to Miami at 19 was not crazy anymore.

Nott sure how a player moves up your ranks without doing anything for three weeks. Its never ok to take a player that is ranked about 30 spots lower.
U praised james and moses equally but somehow after we draft james he is a much better player

 

[Hayden Fox]

Nott sure how a player moves up your ranks without doing anything for three weeks. Its never ok to take a player that is ranked about 30 spots lower.
U praised james and moses equally but somehow after we draft james he is a much better player

I like both players. Nothing wrong with that.

My questions to those killing the pick are the following: 1) who is the player you would have taken at 19? 2) just how many more wins is your pick going to add to the team next year?

I want to see a potential franchise QB develop further. The pick of James did that and that is why it is a solid pick.

 

[hoops]

Nott sure how a player moves up your ranks without doing anything for three weeks. Its never ok to take a player that is ranked about 30 spots lower.
U praised james and moses equally but somehow after we draft james he is a much better player

:foundout:

 

[dlockz]

I like both players. Nothing wrong with that.

My questions to those killing the pick are the following: 1) who is the player you would have taken at 19? 2) just how many more wins is your pick going to add to the team next year?

I want to see a potential franchise QB develop further. The pick of James did that and that is why it is a solid pick.

I would have traded down. I said that prior to draft. If the top linemen were gone which they were and no other amazing player drops trade down.
Taking the 50th best player at 19 is a recipe for losing no matter how one trys to spin it.
James would have been there in a trade down, no other team drafted a lineman until second round. And if by some miracle another team took him there were guards and other tackles available, in fact the guy u liked equally Moses was still there.
Another third rounder means another possible starter. Another player similar to James none the less. You cant say without a doubt that James will make Tannehill even better. Johnathon Martin was considered a superior prospect to James and yet we were on a record pace for sacks last year.
I don't know a lineman just as good as James or maybe James and a better linebacker might add more wins than James by himself.