Hayden Fox's Draft Assessments | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Hayden Fox's Draft Assessments

Hayden Fox

Is it Sunday yet?
Club Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2009
Messages
30,987
Reaction score
1,249

Positives

  • One goal, I personally had for the Dolphins, this offseason was to become faster on defense. They certainly made this a priority during the draft. They became faster and now Matt Burke has some matchup pieces to work with during the week.

  • Part of improving that speed on defense was to match up with TE’s better. Between Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jerome Baker and another year under Matt Burke’s belt, the team will be improved versus seam-killing TE’s.

  • I liked how the team let the draft come to them. There were no dumb trades. They stayed patient. They filled vacancies in the depth chart, while selecting players of value.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick: Great value. Great fit. Get attitude. Experienced. Winner. He will also be able to contribute immediately.

  • Miami finally has a young Red Zone TE target in Mike Gesicki. He is athletic and because of that athletic ability he will end up competing when blocking. Fans have made way too much of an issue about his blocking.

  • I loved how the team addressed the TE position with Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The team should be set at TE for years to come. Mark it down: Smythe is a much better receiver than anyone thinks right now. He had a terrible QB situation last year and when balls went his way he was an effective pass catcher. His blocking will be legit out of the gates.

  • Jerome Baker. Smaller frame, but he can run. He can cover. He will be huge contributor to special teams.

  • Loved how the team played the QB position in the draft. First, they made other teams respect the fact they might draft a QB at 11. Two QB hungry teams ended up trading in front of the Fins and in turn it pushed down some quality defensive players. I also like that they never reached for a QB. I will talk about the media narrative of “you have to draft a QB every year in a bit”. Miami stayed true to the board and right or wrong they did not waste a pick on a QB that they ultimately thought could not play in the NFL. Drafting a QB for the sake of drafting a QB would not have been a sound decision.

  • The team needs a bit more credit for getting two starters out of this draft via a trade. Robert Quinn and Dan Kilgore were had for little to no compensation. If both players can be effective starters, this draft’s grade should be higher.

  • The athletes Miami drafted should be able to replace the losses of Michael Thomas and Damien Williams on special teams. Do not discount how good Thomas and Williams were, but Darren Rizzi is going to be able choose from a host of young athletes that have college special teams experience because of this draft.
Negatives
  • I am not happy with the current DT position. I am over the fact that Ndamukong Suh was released. However, the lack of activity to replace his snaps is alarming. Jordan Phillips has never been a snap eater. The two sophomore DT’s can contribute, but they are going to be asked to do a lot more. I am a big William Hayes fan, but asking him to play run downs at DT instead of DE is very questionable. The UDFA’s at DT do little for me. A veteran run stopper is needed at some point before camp. Going as it is now is risky and can destroy the season from the inside out.

  • I am not worried about the kicking position just yet. However, Jason Sanders has not separated himself from other college kickers. If he struggles, other kickers will come to market after they are cut. That said, Sanders’ college career does not scream consistency.

  • ESPN was disastrous this weekend. How many times was Louis’ Riddick’s microphone going to short out? From there, I counted at least twice Trey Wingo and Todd McShay called “Ozzie Newsome”, “Ozzie Smith”. Trey Wingo is so brutal as tries to find this dumb, obscure stories on the players being drafted. Stop trying so hard. The way that both networks fell behind picks was bad. I understand keeping the picks entertaining, but at the same time the people watching the draft beyond round one are football junkies. Stop falling behind two or three picks.

  • How bad was Tony Pauline with his takes? From “Roquan Smith is an injury red flag”, “to the Fins will move heaven and earth to get Josh Rosen” to holding the water of Leighton Vander Esch, Pauline was awful in the lead up to the draft.

  • Another media take I cannot stand. Stop calling Ryan Tannehill injury-prone. The guy has been tough as nails. Up until December 2016, RT made every start under center since coming into the league. You and I both know that he should have had surgery on his knee in 2016 and he would have played all last year. Instead this dopey idea to rehab the ACL came about. That simply is not possible for a pro athlete. They had to have surgery. He has not had “multiple knee injuries”. It is the same knee that was never fixed since that Calais Campbell hit. The team has put together the best line he has had since being in Miami when you consider that all five starters have a history of answering the bell each week and the two subs on gameday will likely have many NFL snaps under their belts making depth solid. Ryan Tannehill is durable and will be ready for the season. His health I do not question.

  • I do not like that Sam Darnold is in the division. I think the Jets made a solid pick and the Jets have a QB to grow around for a long time. Soon, we will be drafting to stop Darnold as he helps the Jets improve in the standings. It was a good pick.

Overall Assessment

  • I advocated pre-draft that if Josh Rosen fell to 11 it was good value to draft him as you would be investing in the QB position. That said, I am so happy after the fact he is not in Miami. What a pompous jerk after getting drafted. His entire “I am disrespected by going #10” was so contrived and fake. I am not sure I could have taken him as the team’s QB. I think his teammates will end up hating him.

  • Can Dolphins fans pump the brakes on Braxton Berrios going to the Pats. First, he will be lucky to make the team with the current receivers on their depth chart. Second, Miami had no need for another slot receiver. What is most frustrating is the fatalistic takes from South Florida media members and fans alike after he was selected by New England. Just because Wes Welker was traded to the Pats more than ten years ago by Randy Mueller and was success in New England means nothing about Berrios. Just because we saw Chris Hogan on Hard Knocks and Reggie Bush coined a nickname for him and years later (after playing in Buffalo) he had success in New England, has nothing to do with Berrios. Berrios played for the Canes not the Fins. He was a nice player in Miami. He has zero connection to the Miami Dolphins. All that said, Fin Fans have to man up a bit and stop feeling sorry for themselves. The attitude that the team is bound for failure is quite pathetic.

  • Media members dumping on the Fins for not “taking a QB” are funny to me. We hear all the time from local writers that the Fins should do something simply “because the Patriots do it”. Notice the Pats did not invest any relevant pick on a QB? Perhaps they saw the QB’s the same as the Dolphins. Miami was fine in not taking a QB.

  • After nailing two picks in last year’s draft, Armando Salguero was not even close this year. “Trade down for Evans”, “the fins love Guice”, “Miami is taking Vita Vea”. Not a good year for Mando on his predictions.

  • When I watch the draft, I pick who I would pick if I was in the GM chair. Here were my picks: LB Edmuncs, 2. S Reid 3. DT Settle 4a. OT Crosby 4b. QB Falk 6. RB Wadley 7a CB Tolliver and 7b. Piniero (I also predicted Edmunds would be the pick).

  • Three big winners this past weekend: Brock Osweiler, David Fales and Stephone Anthony. Osweiler and Fales for this season would be better than any of the young QB’s drafted beyond RD1. We must be honest about that. Could a draft pick develop into something more? Maybe. However, in the short term both Osweiler and Fales will be able to get in and out of the huddle and at least conduct an offense. Also, let’s face it. If the starting QB goes down again the season for a long time period the season is over and the attention turns to free agency and the draft. A Nick Foles fantasy story is not likely. Keeping RT healthy and effective is essential as last year demonstrated. Here is hoping that Coach Gase can get something out of Osweiler like we saw in Denver under Gary Kubiak or Fales builds upon a decent outing from Week 17.

  • I was on record for calling the DeVante Parker pick a bust years ago and was killed for it. So far I have been right. However, this team needs him to consistently play like the snapshots of success we have seen at times. Therefore, I am reversing the karma and calling for Parker to have a big year. Being that it is essentially a contract year, what makes me think he comes up big?

  • One overarching aspect of what I liked about this offseason is how the team has been built to be better in situational football. The offense has picked up players that can be effective on 3rd down...an area that has been dreadful in years past. They also have the ability to put weapons on the field that can generate chunk plays at anytime. Having players that can flip field will go a long way in making offense “feel easier” each week. The team has two receivers with a great catch radiuses in DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to post up in the red area along with a RB that has a nose for the end zone in Frank Gore. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be able to send DE’s in waves, keeping them fresh in order to close out games. The additions from the draft should allow the team to improve their 3rd down defense. Whether it is an exotic pressure package, Nickel or Dime defense, Burke has more at his disposal to attack offenses. The new players should also lead to the team forcing more FG’s in the Red Zone than last year. Too many TD’s were allowed in the money area. The idea of situational football must improve for the Miami Dolphins and the team has taken a big step in doing that.

  • Finally, I think the Miami Dolphins are going to be okay this year. To me that means between 8-10 wins with a shot at the playoffs. Nobody...fans, media, analysts are going to give them any much of a chance. In lazy fashion, they talk of the “talent lost”. However, Jay Ajayi was effectively replaced by Kenyan Drake last year and the addition of Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage makes the RB group better than the start of 2017. Jarvis Landry played hard and with emotion while catching a ton of balls. However, how much better will this team be spreading out those targets to a variety of different weapons? Some of those weapons might be able to create more explosive plays than Landry. At the very least, perhaps other receivers will be hungrier for the ball knowing the target monster Landry has left town. Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson will be effective from the slot. Jakeem Grant showed he warranted more playing time with his play in December last season. MIke Gesicki will be an option as will the RB’s. Plus, people forget that Kenny Stills and when healthy DeVante Parker are very talented NFL receivers. Dan Kilgore is an upgrade over Mike Pouncey just simply because he can practice consistently. I like Pouncey and he will be considered an all-time Dolphins great, but how was the line to improve if Pouncey could have only practiced once a week? Kilgore is tough and experienced. Now, has Ndamukong Suh been replaced? No. I think that is real criticism and one that was discussed earlier. It is legitimate to watch from here on through the summer if the team attempts to find more help at DT.

It is essential Miami gets off to a fast start in their first three games. They play the Titans at home as Tennessee breaks in a new coach. Following that is a trip to New Jersey to where they play a Jets team that played over their heads last year, but really is not that good. Following that is a game versus the Raiders. West Coast team, at 1pm, in September with a head coach coaching only his third game with his new team. Miami has chance to start strong and get some confidence. A slow start out of the gates is not acceptable this year. I expect the Fins to be a heck of a lot better than most pundits state.
 
Positives
  • One goal, I personally had for the Dolphins, this offseason was to become faster on defense. They certainly made this a priority during the draft. They became faster and now Matt Burke has some matchup pieces to work with during the week.

  • Part of improving that speed on defense was to match up with TE’s better. Between Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jerome Baker and another year under Matt Burke’s belt, the team will be improved versus seam-killing TE’s.

  • I liked how the team let the draft come to them. There were no dumb trades. They stayed patient. They filled vacancies in the depth chart, while selecting players of value.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick: Great value. Great fit. Get attitude. Experienced. Winner. He will also be able to contribute immediately.

  • Miami finally has a young Red Zone TE target in Mike Gesicki. He is athletic and because of that athletic ability he will end up competing when blocking. Fans have made way too much of an issue about his blocking.

  • I loved how the team addressed the TE position with Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The team should be set at TE for years to come. Mark it down: Smythe is a much better receiver than anyone thinks right now. He had a terrible QB situation last year and when balls went his way he was an effective pass catcher. His blocking will be legit out of the gates.

  • Jerome Baker. Smaller frame, but he can run. He can cover. He will be huge contributor to special teams.

  • Loved how the team played the QB position in the draft. First, they made other teams respect the fact they might draft a QB at 11. Two QB hungry teams ended up trading in front of the Fins and in turn it pushed down some quality defensive players. I also like that they never reached for a QB. I will talk about the media narrative of “you have to draft a QB every year in a bit”. Miami stayed true to the board and right or wrong they did not waste a pick on a QB that they ultimately thought could not play in the NFL. Drafting a QB for the sake of drafting a QB would not have been a sound decision.

  • The team needs a bit more credit for getting two starters out of this draft via a trade. Robert Quinn and Dan Kilgore were had for little to no compensation. If both players can be effective starters, this draft’s grade should be higher.

  • The athletes Miami drafted should be able to replace the losses of Michael Thomas and Damien Williams on special teams. Do not discount how good Thomas and Williams were, but Darren Rizzi is going to be able choose from a host of young athletes that have college special teams experience because of this draft.
Negatives
  • I am not happy with the current DT position. I am over the fact that Ndamukong Suh was released. However, the lack of activity to replace his snaps is alarming. Jordan Phillips has never been a snap eater. The two sophomore DT’s can contribute, but they are going to be asked to do a lot more. I am a big William Hayes fan, but asking him to play run downs at DT instead of DE is very questionable. The UDFA’s at DT do little for me. A veteran run stopper is needed at some point before camp. Going as it is now is risky and can destroy the season from the inside out.

  • I am not worried about the kicking position just yet. However, Jason Sanders has not separated himself from other college kickers. If he struggles, other kickers will come to market after they are cut. That said, Sanders’ college career does not scream consistency.

  • ESPN was disastrous this weekend. How many times was Louis’ Riddick’s microphone going to short out? From there, I counted at least twice Trey Wingo and Todd McShay called “Ozzie Newsome”, “Ozzie Smith”. Trey Wingo is so brutal as tries to find this dumb, obscure stories on the players being drafted. Stop trying so hard. The way that both networks fell behind picks was bad. I understand keeping the picks entertaining, but at the same time the people watching the draft beyond round one are football junkies. Stop falling behind two or three picks.

  • How bad was Tony Pauline with his takes? From “Roquan Smith is an injury red flag”, “to the Fins will move heaven and earth to get Josh Rosen” to holding the water of Leighton Vander Esch, Pauline was awful in the lead up to the draft.

  • Another media take I cannot stand. Stop calling Ryan Tannehill injury-prone. The guy has been tough as nails. Up until December 2016, RT made every start under center since coming into the league. You and I both know that he should have had surgery on his knee in 2016 and he would have played all last year. Instead this dopey idea to rehab the ACL came about. That simply is not possible for a pro athlete. They had to have surgery. He has not had “multiple knee injuries”. It is the same knee that was never fixed since that Calais Campbell hit. The team has put together the best line he has had since being in Miami when you consider that all five starters have a history of answering the bell each week and the two subs on gameday will likely have many NFL snaps under their belts making depth solid. Ryan Tannehill is durable and will be ready for the season. His health I do not question.

  • I do not like that Sam Darnold is in the division. I think the Jets made a solid pick and the Jets have a QB to grow around for a long time. Soon, we will be drafting to stop Darnold as he helps the Jets improve in the standings. It was a good pick.

Overall Assessment

  • I advocated pre-draft that if Josh Rosen fell to 11 it was good value to draft him as you would be investing in the QB position. That said, I am so happy after the fact he is not in Miami. What a pompous jerk after getting drafted. His entire “I am disrespected by going #10” was so contrived and fake. I am not sure I could have taken him as the team’s QB. I think his teammates will end up hating him.

  • Can Dolphins fans pump the brakes on Braxton Berrios going to the Pats. First, he will be lucky to make the team with the current receivers on their depth chart. Second, Miami had no need for another slot receiver. What is most frustrating is the fatalistic takes from South Florida media members and fans alike after he was selected by New England. Just because Wes Welker was traded to the Pats more than ten years ago by Randy Mueller and was success in New England means nothing about Berrios. Just because we saw Chris Hogan on Hard Knocks and Reggie Bush coined a nickname for him and years later (after playing in Buffalo) he had success in New England, has nothing to do with Berrios. Berrios played for the Canes not the Fins. He was a nice player in Miami. He has zero connection to the Miami Dolphins. All that said, Fin Fans have to man up a bit and stop feeling sorry for themselves. The attitude that the team is bound for failure is quite pathetic.

  • Media members dumping on the Fins for not “taking a QB” are funny to me. We hear all the time from local writers that the Fins should do something simply “because the Patriots do it”. Notice the Pats did not invest any relevant pick on a QB? Perhaps they saw the QB’s the same as the Dolphins. Miami was fine in not taking a QB.

  • After nailing two picks in last year’s draft, Armando Salguero was not even close this year. “Trade down for Evans”, “the fins love Guice”, “Miami is taking Vita Vea”. Not a good year for Mando on his predictions.

  • When I watch the draft, I pick who I would pick if I was in the GM chair. Here were my picks: LB Edmuncs, 2. S Reid 3. DT Settle 4a. OT Crosby 4b. QB Falk 6. RB Wadley 7a CB Tolliver and 7b. Piniero (I also predicted Edmunds would be the pick).

  • Three big winners this past weekend: Brock Osweiler, David Fales and Stephone Anthony. Osweiler and Fales for this season would be better than any of the young QB’s drafted beyond RD1. We must be honest about that. Could a draft pick develop into something more? Maybe. However, in the short term both Osweiler and Fales will be able to get in and out of the huddle and at least conduct an offense. Also, let’s face it. If the starting QB goes down again the season for a long time period the season is over and the attention turns to free agency and the draft. A Nick Foles fantasy story is not likely. Keeping RT healthy and effective is essential as last year demonstrated. Here is hoping that Coach Gase can get something out of Osweiler like we saw in Denver under Gary Kubiak or Fales builds upon a decent outing from Week 17.

  • I was on record for calling the DeVante Parker pick a bust years ago and was killed for it. So far I have been right. However, this team needs him to consistently play like the snapshots of success we have seen at times. Therefore, I am reversing the karma and calling for Parker to have a big year. Being that it is essentially a contract year, what makes me think he comes up big?

  • One overarching aspect of what I liked about this offseason is how the team has been built to be better in situational football. The offense has picked up players that can be effective on 3rd down...an area that has been dreadful in years past. They also have the ability to put weapons on the field that can generate chunk plays at anytime. Having players that can flip field will go a long way in making offense “feel easier” each week. The team has two receivers with a great catch radiuses in DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to post up in the red area along with a RB that has a nose for the end zone in Frank Gore. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be able to send DE’s in waves, keeping them fresh in order to close out games. The additions from the draft should allow the team to improve their 3rd down defense. Whether it is an exotic pressure package, Nickel or Dime defense, Burke has more at his disposal to attack offenses. The new players should also lead to the team forcing more FG’s in the Red Zone than last year. Too many TD’s were allowed in the money area. The idea of situational football must improve for the Miami Dolphins and the team has taken a big step in doing that.

  • Finally, I think the Miami Dolphins are going to be okay this year. To me that means between 8-10 wins with a shot at the playoffs. Nobody...fans, media, analysts are going to give them any much of a chance. In lazy fashion, they talk of the “talent lost”. However, Jay Ajayi was effectively replaced by Kenyan Drake last year and the addition of Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage makes the RB group better than the start of 2017. Jarvis Landry played hard and with emotion while catching a ton of balls. However, how much better will this team be spreading out those targets to a variety of different weapons? Some of those weapons might be able to create more explosive plays than Landry. At the very least, perhaps other receivers will be hungrier for the ball knowing the target monster Landry has left town. Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson will be effective from the slot. Jakeem Grant showed he warranted more playing time with his play in December last season. MIke Gesicki will be an option as will the RB’s. Plus, people forget that Kenny Stills and when healthy DeVante Parker are very talented NFL receivers. Dan Kilgore is an upgrade over Mike Pouncey just simply because he can practice consistently. I like Pouncey and he will be considered an all-time Dolphins great, but how was the line to improve if Pouncey could have only practiced once a week? Kilgore is tough and experienced. Now, has Ndamukong Suh been replaced? No. I think that is real criticism and one that was discussed earlier. It is legitimate to watch from here on through the summer if the team attempts to find more help at DT.

It is essential Miami gets off to a fast start in their first three games. They play the Titans at home as Tennessee breaks in a new coach. Following that is a trip to New Jersey to where they play a Jets team that played over their heads last year, but really is not that good. Following that is a game versus the Raiders. West Coast team, at 1pm, in September with a head coach coaching only his third game with his new team. Miami has chance to start strong and get some confidence. A slow start out of the gates is not acceptable this year. I expect the Fins to be a heck of a lot better than most pundits state.
Pretty spot on except I believe getting out of the gates fast is going to be very hard with a rusty RT. HOPE NOT
 
Thank you for the great post. I agree there should not be much lost with Landry, Pouncey or Ajayi with the guys respectively replacing them. Suh will be difficult to fill, but we will probably get a veteran DT sometime this summer. I've always have felt when one player, regardless of how good he may be, gets a huge money contract there is a negative psychological impact on the other players around him. I think Suh's void will not be as noticeable.
 
Man I’ve really missed having you on the forum. It’s refreshing to read your takes again. :)

Good write up. Curious...what were your TE rankings heading into the draft? You mentioned that Gesicki’s blocking isn’t as big a concern as everyone is making it out to be. Was he your top TE?
 
great take as always Hayden, Why were you watching ESPNs coverage though lol, NFL network is much better. The Tannehill part I agree with too, guy has had 1 injury.....not 2, 1.

I flip to both depending on ads.
 
Man I’ve really missed having you on the forum. It’s refreshing to read your takes again. :)

Good write up. Curious...what were your TE rankings heading into the draft? You mentioned that Gesicki’s blocking isn’t as big a concern as everyone is making it out to be. Was he your top TE?

Goedert
Gesicki
Andrews
Hurst
Herndon

Goedert and Gesicki were interchangeable to me.
 
So you would not have addressed TE in the draft at all? I was also debating if I'd rather have Edmunds with Reid and a TE in the 3rd vs what we took.
 
Nice write up. I think it is 100% guaranteed that the Fins sign someone like Hankins post June 1st. I've got more confidence in this FO than in recent years.
 
I think that's a fair comparison as far as production and talent level. But I do disagree that Tannehill isn't as nearly as injury prone and is tougher than Bradford.
Yea he was drawing a correlation between their injury history.

I mean the way he made it sound you would think Ryan was this fragile QB made of glass, which couldn’t be any further from the truth.

So now we have this purposeful agenda to discredit Tannehill’s toughness in the media. Which I’m sure will be the narrative leading all the way up to week 1.

Bet if you asked any RT17 detractor on this site what is his best attribute, they’ll quickly tell you it’s his toughness.

Put simply, the talking heads are so unbelievably uniformed that it reeks of ulterior motives.
 
Back
Top Bottom