How will Flores regain respect of team after a historically bad season? (Analysis) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How will Flores regain respect of team after a historically bad season? (Analysis)

SkapePhin

SkapePhin

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Caveat: Obviously in Week 2 we don't know the final record, but I think its safe to say that this will be a historically bad season with no more than 3 wins.

With that out of the way, I am wondering how Coach Flores will be able to regain the respect and trust of this team moving forward after a really bad year. His players will have busted their ass for an entire season with little to show for it, so how will they react? Maybe it doesn't matter since a lot of these players, perhaps even the majority, will be gone. But how will the players who stay react to him? How will potential free agents view him?

It's a bit unfair for Flores since the GM intentionally set out to lose as much as possible this season, but he signed up for this. And he is doing more than his share to bring it to fruition.

So I wanted to take a look at how coaches who ended up with the #1 overall pick fared with the team after their massive failure of a season. I looked at every season since 2000. You can see the results below.

It doesn't look good for Flores.

The vast majority of HCs (13) who sucked enough to get the #1 overall pick were fired after that season. Only 3 lasted another season before being fired. 2 lasted 2 more season, while Marty Schottenheimer was the outlier spending another 3 (successful) seasons with the Chargers.

Of the 1st year HCs, only 2 spent more than 1 more season with the team: Steve Spagnuolo with Rams for 2 more seasons and Hue Jackson for 2 more (epically futile) seasons. 3 of the 1st year HCs were fired after their first year of failure. Lovie Smith was the only other 1st year coach who landed #1 pick and he lasted one more season.

Also of note, the vast majority of these coaches never got another HC gig in the NFL. Only John Fox, Jim Caldwell, and Gary Kubiak went on to get another HC gig with varying success. One thing to note about these guys is that all of them had substantial success with these teams prior to their disastrous #1 pick landing season.

So history does not bode well for Flores if this season ends how we all think it will. Fact is, its very difficult for these HCs who haven't already built some trust with players with previous success with the team or elsewhere to rebound from this sort of historic failure. For the majority of them, this kind of season effectively ends their careers as HC.

YearTeamCoachRecordPoints ForPoints AgainstDraft PickYear Coaching TeamTotal Record With TeamAdditional Years with TeamRecord with Team After #1 Pick
2000ChargersMike Riley1-15269440TRADED (LaDanian Tomlinson RB 5th Overall)2nd14-3415-11
2001PanthersGeorge Seifert1-15253410Julius Peppers DE (Expansion Texans had #1 Overall)3rd16-320N/A
2002BengalsDick LeBeau2-14279456Carson Palmer (QB)3rd12-330N/A
2003ChargersMarty Schottenheimer4-12313441TRADED (Philip Rivers QB 4th Overall)2nd47-33335-13
200449ersDennis Erickson2-14259452Alex Smith (QB)2nd9-230N/A
2005TexansDom Capers2-14260431Mario Williams (DE)4th18-460N/A
2006RaidersArt Shell2-14168332JaMarcus Russell (QB)1st2-140N/A
2007DolphinsCam Cameron1-15267437Jake Long (OT)1st1-150N/A
2008LionsRod Marinelli0-16268517Matthew Stafford (QB)3rd10-380N/A
2009RamsSteve Spagnuolo1-15175436Sam Bradford (QB)1st10-3829-23
2010PanthersJohn Fox2-14196408Cam Newton (QB)9th73-710N/A
2011ColtsJim Caldwell2-14243430Andrew Luck (QB)3rd36-280N/A
2012ChiefsRomeo Crennel2-14211425Eric Fisher (OT)2nd4-150N/A
2013TexansGary Kubiak2-14276428Jadeaveon Clowney (DE)8th61-640N/A
2014BuccaneersLovie Smith2-14277410Jameis Winston (QB)1st8-2416-10
2015TennesseeKen Whisenhunt3-13299423TRADED (Jack Conklin OT 8th Overall)2nd3-200N/A
2016BrownsHue Jackson1-15264452Myles Garrett (DE)1st3-3622-21-1
2017BrownsHue Jackson0-16234410Baker Mayfield (QB)2nd3-3612-5-1
2018CardinalsSteve Wilks3-13225425Kyler Murray (QB)1st3-130N/A
 
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How many of those teams that ended up with the #1 pick were intentionally tanking? That's impossible to know, but in our case we know Flores has been set up to fail as part of a plan, so I don't see why he'd be fired when he has been given a pass.
 
oasis said:
How many of those teams that ended up with the #1 pick were intentionally tanking? That's impossible to know, but in our case we know Flores has been set up to fail as part of a plan, so I don't see why he'd be fired when he has been given a pass.
Click to expand...

I think the only ones where you could make the case that the front office might have been gunning for a tank job were the Colts after Manning went down with Luck on the horizon, and the Browns with Hue Jackson. It didn't end well for either of them, even though Jackson got much more time than he deserved, and wasted 3 seasons of the Browns time.

But whether Flores is in on this tank job or not, it hardly matters. History shows that HCs who are in charge of this sort of epic failure hardly ever recover. Even if he survives this year, it's highly likely he won't last more than 2 more years in Miami.
 
Most of the team will be gone in two years including every player that doesn't buy into the philosophy or show respect.
 
Another thing I found striking from this research...

In just 2 games, Flores' Dolphins are already at a third of the total of Points Against for the 2006 3-13 Raiders.

In all of 2006, Raiders had 332 Points Against. In 2 games, Dolphins have 102 Points Against.
 
SkapePhin said:
I think the only ones where you could make the case that the front office might have been gunning for a tank job were the Colts after Manning went down with Luck on the horizon, and the Browns with Hue Jackson. It didn't end well for either of them, even though Jackson got much more time than he deserved, and wasted 3 seasons of the Browns time.

But whether Flores is in on this tank job or not, it hardly matters. History shows that HCs who are in charge of this sort of epic failure hardly ever recover. Even if he survives this year, it's highly likely he won't last more than 2 more years in Miami.
Click to expand...

I think you're probably right. I think Grier goes with him. Probably part of Ross' plan to get a QB and then lure Harbaugh with essentially full control, enormous cap space, and an exciting QB to build around.
 
The issue with coaches that go 1-15 is that the NFL is designed for this to bot happen. win probability week to week makes it improbable to be that bad. So 1-15 says a lot about the coaches of these teams and whatever state they may have been in.

The issue for flores is that he is fielding a team set to be the worst of all time by a WIDE MARGIN. Still early but the results are not promising. This will mean also replacing something like 40 players on the roster. Most of the players are meant to be fill ins until replacements are located.

Replacing all these players and fielding a rookie quarterback will put pressure on him and grier to hit every single puck and signing which is also improbable. Then they need to start winning and playing well. Which as the chart shows is unfair for assessment.

Grier/Flores may get the quarterback but have stacked the deck against them in the process. One small misstep in this grand scheme and the franchise is ******. I still remain concerned they can pull of a vast improvement next year just because they got a quarterback.
 
dude you lost me with your FIRST sentence. "with no more than 3 wins" Are you actually watching these games? They wont win a game. They will be as bad as the !976 Buccaneers. Steven Ross needs to go. Players already want to leave this cess pool of a team.
 
Another thing I noticed: In almost 20 years of #1 overall picks, the pick is either a QB, DE or OT.

Of the QBs, the majority stuck with the team for a long time and competed in playoffs, but none have won the Superbowl. Only one was a massive bust (JaMarcus Russell), although Bradford never really did much for the Rams due to injury.

EDIT: Actually, Eli Manning was the #1 overall pick, but was traded by Chargers for Rivers, so that is one that qualifies as a #1 overall QB to win a superbowl, just not with the team that earned that pick.
 
Thats why picking a QB #1 overall is like trying to win the lotto. You just never know. You can do so much research on 1 guy, you just dont know. THAT IS WHAT SCARES ME THE MOST. If we miss on that QB pick, This franchise will be headed down a path that will take a decade to come out of, or even longer.
 
xSxPxHx said:
Thats why picking a QB #1 overall is like trying to win the lotto. You just never know. You can do so much research on 1 guy, you just dont know. THAT IS WHAT SCARES ME THE MOST. If we miss on that QB pick, This franchise will be headed down a path that will take a decade to come out of, or even longer.
Click to expand...

The success rate for #1 Overall drafted QBs has been decent, but I think their inability to win a Superbowl speaks to the difficulty it is to build a winning team around them. They land with teams that were woefully inept, so it took awhile for them to dig out of the hole. And then by the time they are ready to contend, the QB demands big time money which limits their ability to compete.

With that in mind, its no surprise that QBs drafted later in the first (or even later) have been more successful with superbowls because they were drafted by teams that were more complete and ready to compete much earlier in their careers (Ben Rothlisberger, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco) and just had a more competent organization overall.
 
marinobestever said:
dude you lost me with your FIRST sentence. "with no more than 3 wins" Are you actually watching these games? They wont win a game. They will be as bad as the !976 Buccaneers. Steven Ross needs to go. Players already want to leave this cess pool of a team.
Click to expand...

Even the winless Lions and Browns seemed more competent early on, but things can change as the season progresses. They may find a win somewhere.
 
The only coach to climb from a 1-15 record to Super Bowl was Jimmy Johnson. He rebuilt most of the team with draft picks. Parcels tried to do the same here but Henne was a bust and Parcells bailed. We then wasted 7 years on Tannehill and went through 3 coaches. If Rosen plays well, Grier can build a team around him and attract free agents. If Rosen bombs, we will draft our savior and then see what happens. Flores has a small chance to succeed but only if the draft picks produce star players. That remains to be seen.
 
Another point, it is definitely not going to be just one losing season, add 2 more likely dreadful ones to it due to the damage these guys are doing
He has zero chance to remain here IMO which is a good thing ...3 awful years after intentionally tanking one of them ? GONE!
Also shows his too much respect for the game nonsense was hogwash...he will not command any respect
 
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