Not sure how I would feel about giving up on Tua and trading massive resources in a trade. Deshaun Watson is an unquestioned upgrade over Tua, but the cost will be high, and Coach Flo seems to be building a defensive powerhouse and a game manager QB who makes very few errors and is an excellent decision maker might be a winning formula. Watson would score more points, and he's also responsible with the ball, but he will cost essentially three 1st round picks. X is at his prime, but he'll cost a lot to re-re-sign, and we've invested a lot into Byron Jones and Kyle Van Noy, so re-signing Watson will crush our cap cushion and kind of nail us to the roster. Giving up 3 high picks (maybe we can trade Tua for a late 1st or early 2nd?) cuts down on our ability to fill the holes and jump from a decent team to a Super Bowl contending team.
We didn't really experience meaningful injuries in 2020. Sure, we had WR's go down, a few minor ones along the OL, but almost no key guys went down. Pass rusher = Ogbah, no injury. Coverage = X + Jones, minor injury time. LB's = Van Noy + Baker + Van Ginkel, minimal injuries. That's unlikely to happen again. Our depth was not tested in 2020. Look back at our OL injury woes over the last decade ... this was probably the healthiest season for a Dolphins OL in recent memory. We had 2 QB's, but moving forward, we'll only have 1 starter, and no super-sub backup. We had turnover at RB, but since the subs (Gaskins, Ahmed) proved better than the starters (Jordan Howard and Matt Breida), not sure we can attribute that to injury as much as simply a weak position group. The recent history of X makes it very possible he's injured for a lot of games most seasons. Van Noy isn't a spring chicken. Our OL isn't likely to maintain that health record every year. We're going to need the guys from the 2021 draft to improve this team as both starters and backups. Trading away 3 high picks, means we're really getting almost all backups.
So trading for Watson is very much a double-edged sword.
BUT, the Jets have been the very definition of snake-bitten QB's since .... oh I dunno, Tony Eason? Them getting Watson would be a game changer ... in a very bad way. Let's face it, the Jets take can't miss prospects like Quinnen Williams and make them ordinary. They replace their star DL with another can't miss DL and just cycle the bottom two rungs of the division. They take guys who were offensive stars like Brandon Marshall, Leveon Bell, etc. and continue to produce a weak team. Giving them Watson would be a massive step up, and since I don't really fear them drafting 3 guys in the 1st round ... I'd really rather they NOT get Deshaun Watson.
I can't see how the Patriots could land Watson. Brady left and they fell, while Brady is in the NFC Championship game with the Bucs. While I firmly believe the secret sauce of New England is Belichick, it's looking like Brady was the real talent based on this one year's results. Can't see Watson wanting to go there where the coach doesn't let his star players get anything they want, will only offer a low priced re-signing number, doesn't get him weapons, and may retire on him. Couple that with the fact the Patriots will not be able to present an attractive offer to the Texans ... yeah, I highly doubt Watson goes to the Patriots.
As far as the draft, the Jets hold all the cards and will decide the value of our pick. If they trade for Watson, then Zack Wilson goes #2 and anyone who wants Fields will want to trade up with us. But, most teams (at least right now) don't value Fields as highly as they do Wilson. But it's the Jets, so they could pass on Watson and pass on taking a QB and draft Sewell or Smith or Chase, meaning lots of teams will want to trade up to #3 to get there guy, and yes, our pick may become very valuable. Trade back a bit, pick up another 1st or 2nd round pick, still get an elite player, and our rebuild continues smooth sailing.
We do not control our own destiny in the draft. Everything hinges on what the Jets do. Fortunately, the Jets recent history is one chocked full of making bad decisions.
