You know, I understand the optimism and pessimism, but I just think we have a pretty good team.
Everyone judges us by what happened last year, and that's somewhat fair, but not accurate. Notice the swing in our record when Bates took over. This was a poorly coached team.
Now take a look at our talent on offense: Feeley is a question mark but showed he can make all the throws and definitely improved last year. At WR, we have Chris Chambers, who in the right offense or with a QB with some semblance of an arm is very capable of Pro Bowl status. We've also got Marty Booker, who was and could still be a Pro Bowler. At #3 is a guy who improved greatly, and Boston might resign. When healthy, Boston is one of the top 3 #3 WRs in the league. I don't even need to see him catch a ball to know that.
At TE we have a superstar, and at RB we have a guy who is considered the best back in the best RB class in YEARS. Our OL is a question mark but we have the best OL coach in the game. We've also got the coordinator of the #1 offense in the NFL last year. As a BACKUP we have a guy who threw a pretty tight deep ball in place of Culpepper.
Then, at DL we have the best DE in the league, and 2 guys coming back from injury. Then you add a pretty damn good DT/DE in Kevin Carter and a hell of a DE prospect in Roth (who has not yet played an NFL down yet but definitely has the look of a steal). Then we get Seau back and Zach is consistent (and will likely be better with better weight training), and our big loss is Surtain but I don't think it will hurt as much as our additions have helped. We also have a question mark st FS, but I think we'll be fine there as well.
Then you add in a brilliant defensive mind in Saban with new schemes, and better coaching, and we've got the makings of a very solid unit--one that can likely compete.
You look at the AFCE and everyone has question marks. The Patriots lost more personnel than Aaron Rodgers lost dollars (ohhh, snap), the Bills are starting a rookie QB, the Jets (oddly enough they are likely the #2 team in the AFCE) are one likely injury away from Fiedler.
Do we go all the way? No. But we have more than a shot in the dark at winning the AFCE. It certainly isn't 12:1. I think that mark is based on last year's record and not this draft (I'm sorry but I just do not think the Pats did as well value-wise as they could have... hey Mankins might be good but did he need to be taken in the 1st?) and the personnel changes in the division.
I don't think I'm being overly optimistic by saying we could go 10-6, and maybe even win the division (25% chance).