If Dennis Hickey was a better trader we could have had...

[CpuFan]

Four teams picked OL men in the second round before Miami would have picked. That does not count the fact that some team who needed a RT would not have traded ahead of Miami to get him as well.
I believe he would not have been there when Miami picked seeing how he was the best RT in the draft!

 

[spiketex]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpkWoyXjgE4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdqS2RO0rNc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I38XTMC66Xo



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7qVSSyfXDc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpU9ZUCzwqg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYx2TIIilrE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vASGMWhYFfc


and had them both easily.

- Trade down from #19 and then take Ja'wuan James, take the extra third. That's Trai Turner right there.

- Stay put at #81 and take Billy Turner there, don't trade the 116th pick to move up to #67. Trai Turner is a very talented, very athletic pure OG who has plenty of experience at OG, would have loved to have him on board. Billy Turner? Good to have him aboard. Billy Turner and Trai Turner? Freaking awesome additions to a depleted OG unit. And between the two Turners I would have chosen Trai, if for no other reason that we already got our Guards in Albert and James, and while Billy Turner is projected to Guard, Trai Turner is a pure Guard, and a darned good one at that. Just an excellent prospect, one of my favorites of the draft.

- That #116 pick would have gotten us WR Martavis Bryant, a great talent and another deep threat for the WR unit. There at our traded #116 pick, gone by our #125 pick. Hickey, if you absolutely had to trade a 4th to secure Billy Turner, which I wouldn't have done in the first place, couldn't you have AT LEAST traded the #125 pick, not #116. Lousy trading.

For all the wheeling and dealing, down in the 2nd rd and trading up in the 3rd, we lost 9 crucial spots in the fourth round and gained a 5th rd pick. Yipee. At first glance I'm ok with this draft, nothing special but it looks to have filled needs, but in my opinion Hickey is not much of a wheeler and dealer or trader of picks. Poor showing in that regard, and that left me deflated. Trai Turner and Martavis Bryant are outstanding prospects that could have easily been Miami Dolphins if Hickey played his hand better, his trading skills didn't strike me as very special at all.

Jim - You are probably right. However, Hickey has only been in the job a short time and skill in the deal negotiation side comes with practice. He literally has to learn from some mistakes to become a better negotiator. I'm just a lot happier that we have a skilled experienced player evaluator as GM. Some of his picks weren't sexy but could prove to be solid.
Ireland loved the negotiating side and he was probably good at it. It was both a strength and a weakness in that other parties were reluctant to negotiate with him on occasions. But we are better off if a higher % of the players drafted can make a contribution to the team.
Not every GM is a natural deal maker. If Hickey isn't a natural negotiator, then maybe we find someone who is good at this as an advisor in the war room for next year. It is still more important to get the right players. Improving the deals is the icing on top of the cake.

BTW - I don't criticize Hickey for the James selection. Many regard that we reached for him, but there was a significant risk of not getting the player he wanted to get the O-line in better shape. As we have discussed, he had the chance to get good prospects in Kouandjio or Su'a-Filo, but he considered James was the key guy to draft. It was a tough call but he addressed it.

 

[jim1]

in short, you're basing everything on assumptions. you might think the chances of those guys being available later were good, and they might have been, but we weren't quite in the position to take the gamble. if we had traded down and missed out on James, there would be others complaining about Hickey not having the necessary "foresight".

Assumption, like Trai Turner would likely be available in the 3rd rd or that, before the 4th round began on Saturday, Martavis Bryant was much more likely to be available at #116 as opposed to #125? Those are assumptions, but pretty basic assumptions. As to Bryant, when you start the 4th rd and he's still on the board it's pretty obvious imo that he's far more likely to be available at #116 than #125.

Regardless, the point is about getting maximum value. Value was to be had in my opinion in trading down and then taking James later in the 1st at #27 as opposed to just taking him at #19. In my opinion there was too much value in the #116 pick to trade it away to move up to secure Billy Turner in the 3rd rd. Those were my opinions in foresite, and hindsite confirmed them. That isn't rocket science, it's an opinion that Hickey didn't trade particularly well in the draft, and that opinion is the genesis of this thread.

 

[greasyObnoxious]

Assumption, like Trai Turner was likely would be available in the 3rd rd or that, before the 4th round began on Saturday, Martavis Bryant was much more likely to be available at #116 as opposed to #125? Those are assumptions, but pretty basic assumptions. As to Bryant, when you start the 4th rd and he's still on the board it's pretty obvious imo that he's far more likely to be available at #116 than #125.

Regardless, the point is about getting maximum value. Value was to be had in my opinion in trading down and then taking James in the 1st as opposed to just taking him at #19. In my opinion there was too much value in the #116 pick to trade it away to move up to secure Billy Turner in the 3rd rd. Those were my opinions in foresite, and hindsite confirmed them. This isn't rocket science, this is an opinion that Hickey didn't trade particularly well in the draft, which in the genesis of the whole thread.

there was no way to know that Bryant was even going to make it to round 4 when the trade happened, so thats all hindsight. i do agree though, knowing he was going in round 4 it was more likely that it'd be early rather than late.

the draft isn't about getting value, it's about adding talent. sometimes it falls to, sometimes you have to pay a price for it, but in the end, talent is all that matters. no one will care about value in two years.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I don't know where JuWaun James would have been taken if we'd passed on him.

That's mostly irrelevant, IMO. I didn't like the idea of trading down in the second round instead of up. The sweet spot area of 40 was easily obtainable if we had traded down slightly at 19, and used the bonus pick to bump forward from 50, instead of multiple drops to 63.

If we had picked at 27 and 40ish instead of 19 and 63, much more often than not you'll be better off, even if you have to attach a later pick as well. It doesn't matter if we're thrilled with James and Landry. Do the right thing and over the long haul you'll be rewarded.

 

[nick1]

I honestly think they traded up for and wanted Moses instead....

What logic is that turner is a guard we needed a guard but let's target another RT

 

[jim1]

there was no way to know that Bryant was even going to make it to round 4 when the trade happened, so thats all hindsight. i do agree though, knowing he was going in round 4 it was more likely that it'd be early rather than late.

the draft isn't about getting value, it's about adding talent. sometimes it falls to, sometimes you have to pay a price for it, but in the end, talent is all that matters. no one will care about value in two years.

There was no way to know last year that the traded #42 pick could have been used on OT Menelik Watson, but that was the case and it concerned me immediately after the trade because of our need at RT and Watson was one of my favorites that year.

This thread isn't about a crystal ball, it's about the opportunity cost of Hickey's moves and non moves. As it turned out, Trai Turner and Martavis Bryant could easily have been had. Of course no one knew that for sure, and no one knows exactly if James would have been available at #27. The measuring stick is whether or not Hickey got value. My opinion is that while he did a decent job of drafting,

- he didn't get full value at #19, he turned down an extra 3rd when all indications are that James would have been there at #27, and even if he wasn't that would hardly merit asa disaster.

- he did ok with the 2nd rd trades, but he walked away from a lot of talent in doing so.

- he overspent on the 3rd rd trade up and pretty much blew what he had acquired in the 2nd rd trades, overpaying with the #116 pick when even the #125 pick would have been excessive compensation imo.

If Hickey had simply traded down from #19 to #27 he coul have knocked it out of the park, and he didn't. Decent draft, not a great draft, and his trades lacked. He did fill holes in the roster, I give him props for that. All in all I was decently happy with the draft.

The biggest surprise to me was that Martavis Bryant lasted until the 4th round. The 3rd round ended Friday night and the 4th rd began Saturday morning- there was plenty of time during the 3rd and 4th rounds to wonder if the Hickey trade up for Billy Turner would have cost us a shot at Bryant- it did. As to whether or not Hickey wanted that shot, who knows.

 

[jim1]

What logic is that turner is a guard we needed a guard but let's target another RT

Apparently the same flavor of the week logic that we needed to draft a RT to play RT, but it's of no consequence that we drafted a OT to play OG, especially when a fantastic pure Guard prospect was there to be had.

 

[nick1]

Apparently the same flavor of the week logic that we needed to draft a RT to play RT, but it's of no consequence that we drafted a OT to play OG, especially when a fantastic pure Guard prospect was there to be had.

Turner projects well to guard who was available?

 

[rent this space]

Hindsight makes it so easy...
Hickey felt that James was the last 1st round tackle and didn't want to take the chance on losing him. he stuck to his board and filled the biggest hole on the roster. Like Hayden said, if he traded down and lost him, everyone would be grilling him for that right now.
I know I would be a lot less comfortable with Trai Turner than James

 

[MARINO1384]

So many draft gurus in this thread, stupid dolphins for drafting guys they thought would make them better and fi the scheme that THEY run. Wtf does hickey and philbin know. I hate when teams conduct the draft by how they see fits. Do they not realize the game is won by impressing the nfl draft "experts" and the idiot clueless fans on message boards!! Game is won on paper on draft day, not the field. After this draft i really dont even want to be a dollhins fan anymore. Im sick of them not choosing the players that we want, i mean come on i read that blog and seen a 30 second highlight reel on player so and so, i know way more than the team who plays the game........

 

[jim1]

Turner projects well to guard who was available?

I'm fine with Billy Turner, there's a whole lot to like about him, uber athletic with some power. That being said, he's an OT being converted to OG. If Billy Turner was taken before #81 I would have been fine with Trai Turner, a pure Guard prospect and one heck of a player imo. He went #92 to the Panthers.

ps One very notable thing about Billy Turner imo is the extent to which he plays off of his toes as opposed to most other OL who have more of their weight on their heels. Billy Turner is particularly athletic, I hope that he transitions well to the NFL and to the Guard position.

 

[jim1]

So many draft gurus in this thread, stupid dolphins for drafting guys they thought would make them better and fi the scheme that THEY run. Wtf does hickey and philbin know. I hate when teams conduct the draft by how they see fits. Do they not realize the game is won by impressing the nfl draft "experts" and the idiot clueless fans on message boards!! Game is won on paper on draft day, not the field. After this draft i really dont even want to be a dollhins fan anymore. Im sick of them not choosing the players that we want, i mean come on i read that blog and seen a 30 second highlight reel on player so and so, i know way more than the team who plays the game........

Congratulations on being yet another poster to whiff on every reasonable subtlety and nuance of trading draft picks and maximizing value.

 

[ITS!MATEO]

What logic is that turner is a guard we needed a guard but let's target another RT

We have no depth and if Albert goes down who will be the starter? We could always use any one of those guys at guard...

The real question is why use 2 draft picks on a receiver position that only needs 1 more guy? I'm sure you have no problem with that though because "competition is good", correct?

 

[enigmatics]

So many draft gurus in this thread, stupid dolphins for drafting guys they thought would make them better and fi the scheme that THEY run. Wtf does hickey and philbin know. I hate when teams conduct the draft by how they see fits. Do they not realize the game is won by impressing the nfl draft "experts" and the idiot clueless fans on message boards!! Game is won on paper on draft day, not the field. After this draft i really dont even want to be a dollhins fan anymore. Im sick of them not choosing the players that we want, i mean come on i read that blog and seen a 30 second highlight reel on player so and so, i know way more than the team who plays the game........

You tell us ..... what do Hickey and Philbin know? Are they considered "gurus" among their peers? Have they cemented their names in the upper echelon of coaching and personnel decisions?

It's like you want to bash people for their skepticism and mock them saying they don't know anything, yet somehow you do simply because of your blind trust in a pair of men who to this point don't have anything in their resume to warrant it.