If Tanne breaks 20TD Passes: He is the REAL DEAL (I PROVE IT WITH ONE SIMPLE STAT) | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If Tanne breaks 20TD Passes: He is the REAL DEAL (I PROVE IT WITH ONE SIMPLE STAT)

OP, I enjoyed this thread. It's an interesting theory. Thank you for the hard work. I was highly entertained.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
maralieus said:
My jury on RGIII is still out

Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Ha ha why??? He blows...he's in blame everyone else but himself mode now and his body language Monday night was awful

---------- Post added at 04:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 PM ----------
LacesOutTanne34 said:
But here is the beautiful thing to this number....They don't predict a superstar, superbowls, wins etc...This stat is just a good predictor on whether the guy will be a "Solid/above average NFL starter."

Everything else that goes into it (that im with you on) determines if that "real deal" qb is going to be a Jay Cutler type or Eli Manning Type
Click to expand...

Well shoot he's solid already...the only thing left is the long term upside
 
roy_miami said:
Its an interesting discussion but I wouldn't say he'll get it no problem. He's on pace for 22 right now but still has to go play in cold NY, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. I would set the over/under line at 19.5 right now.

Hopefully he gets to 23 somehow, the last QB to do that was Marino way back in 1998.
Click to expand...

The weather could play into it for sure...he did not look comfortable in the freezing cold last year...you may be right...but with 5 games left I think a 1 td per game pass average is likely...
 
I hope he gets to 30 .... my real concern is in two other little pesky barometers. Turnovers and losses.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I love how posters who have no clue what is going on think they look good criticizing shouright, who has brought forward some of the best and most relevant material to this site recently.

Anyway, this is a backfit exercise that places too much rigidity on a certain number and is therefore subject to convenient alteration. For example, let's say Tannehill finishes 2013 with 19 touchdown passes but later blooms to "real deal" status. In that case the author will quietly backtrack and change the 20 to 19. After all, there's nothing magical about 20. It's a round number and sounds cute at this point. The sample size isn't particularly high. So we can go back and switch to 19 if it serves our purposes, including someone we'd like to include. Then you go with 19 until somebody else barely falls outside, so you invent a category to narrowly grab him. All of this is very familiar. There are versions to predict the winner of the Super Bowl. Decades ago they had a handful of criteria then it explodes as inexplicable results force one alteration after another.

It's not without some merit. But the best formulas don't have an all-or-nothing cutoff point. For example, 7 yards per attempt is a good historical guideline but you don't spit on anyone who is slightly below that. Tom Brady twice won Super Bowls in seasons when he averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.
Click to expand...

Relevant my a$$,Shrought over did it 27 stats posts ago.Yeah lets go dissect the snot out a QB who had 17 pro starts under his belt.Glad you enjoy them.

1,2,3 posts ok...but 20 plus is a but much...Chad Henne disease is incurable...
 
Hey, one guy got 7 TD's in one game. We know he aint no bust.

but I predicted 24 TD's I think for RT this year.

But draft Jace Amaro in first round before BB does and I asure you he will be getting closer to 30 next year.
 
Wow, the Tannehill haters in full swing. Back off a little. The OP just says that all recent QBs drafted in the first round who threw for 20 TDs or more in their first two full seasons went on to become good QBs. What's wrong with that? He's not saying that Ryan Tannehill will win 217 consecutive Superbowls or will throw for a thousand TD passes in a single season. All he's saying is that there is hope that Ryan Tannehill is the real deal. What's to argue with that? Unless of course you want to prove your point that Tannehill is the bust you seemingly want him to be just because of some numbers that support your stupid agenda.

Let me get this clear (just to dismiss any possible notion that I might have an agenda when it comes to Ryan Tannehill): I was ready to give up on him after the Buffalo game because I thought that he'll never get rid of his fumbling problem. He's not fumbled since... So I am not saying that Ryan Tannehill will be in the HOF one day but I'm neither saying that he won't be. I saw some good things from him this year and I saw some bad things from him this year but the jury is still out on him.
 
OP, nice work. I agree with your premise that QB's who eventually become good typically show it by year 2. This is different for the recent QB's as the older generation of veterans like Peyton, Brady, Brees and Rodgers were not as prepared coming out of college as kids today.

But, for this analysis it might also be beneficial to includeyoung starters like Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick despite not being first rounders because they are already entrenched starters.
 
I was perusing a Skins site the other day and there are several threads on wanting to trade RGIII already, lol.
 
LacesOutTanne34 said:
A Real Deal QB: A solid/above average starter in the NFL capable of leading his team to playoffs. Final Stats at End

Criteria:
1. Qb who threw for 20+ tds within first 2 years as a starter
2. OR Within first 3 years in the league IF he sat behind a starter during their rookie year or got injured and played LESS than 10 games during year 1 or 2.
3. If 20TD season came During 2nd year as a starter you MUST have thrown for MORE than 10tds in rookie year/1st year as starter (if sat during rookie year).

The Following is EVERY QB TAKEN IN 1ST ROUND SINCE 2000.
1. YES/NO BASED ON WHETHER THEY MET CRITERIA ABOVE.
2..Judged as BUST---REAL DEAL (based on definition above)--- Unfinished

2000: Chad Pennington-YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4times

2001: Michael Vick---NO---REAL DEAL (playoffs only mentioned for those who meet criteria)

2002:
David Carr---NO---BUST
Joey Harrington---NO---BUST
Patrick Ramsey---NO---BUST

2003:
Carson Palmer---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 2 times
Byron Leftwich---NO---BUST
Kyle Boller---NO---BUST
Rex Grossman---No---BUST---(reached 20tds in 4th season/1st as starter, but also went to SB, but again my criteria is correct in assessing him as a qb as my criteria excludes him)

2004:
Eli Manning---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 5 times-2 SBS
Phillip Rivers---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4times
Big Ben---NO---REAL DEAL
JP Losman---NO---BUST

2005:
Alex Smith---NO---REAL DEAL
Aaron Rodgers (excluded from stat based on criteria of sitting behind a HOF QB, don't like it? Me either he would have met my criteria if he played lol)

2006:
Vince Young---NO---BUST
Matt Leinart---NO---BUST
Jay Cutler---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 2 Times

2007:
Jamarcus Russell---NO---BUST
Brady Quinn---NO---BUST

2008:
Matt Ryan---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 4 times
Joe Flacco---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 5 times 1SB

2009:
Matt Stafford---YES---REAL DEAL---Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 time
Mark Sanchez---NO---BUST (although id love to go to afc title game twice)
Josh Freeman---NO---UNFINISHED

2010:
Sam Bradford---NO---UNFINISHED
Tim Tebow---NO---BUST (is it fair to call him a bust, when he shouldn't have been a 1st rounder anyway)

2011:
Cam Newton---YES---REAL DEAL
Jake Locker---NO---BUST/Unfinished
Blaine Gabbert---NO---BUST
Christian Ponder---NO---BUST

2012: (2nd year being played out)
Luck---YES---REAL DEAL--- Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 times
RGIII---YES---REAL DEAL----Lead team(s) to playoffs: 1 time
Ryan Tannehill---5 AWAY---????
Brandon Weeden---NO---BUST


Criteria Reminder: qbs to reach 20 td passes in Within first two years as a starter or within first 3 overall if sat a season or inured with less than 10 games started:
# of qbs to meet criteria
Real Deal Reminder: A solid/above average starter in the NFL capable of leading his team to playoffs.

FINAL STATS-QB WHO MET CRITERIA: 11

1. 100% of the qbs who met criteria are considered the REAL DEAL.
2. 100% of these qbs have led their teams to the playoffs at least once.
3. 100% of QBS with more than 5 years in league have MULTIPLE PLAYOFF APPEARANCES
4. 100% of QBS have MULTIPLE seasons with 20+ TD passes (Not including qbs with taken 2012 and after--Cam in 2011 will get his 2nd this year currently at 17)
5. 100% of these qbs have NEVER BEEN a permanent backup QB in the league based on play, not injuries.

FINAL STATS OF QBS WHO DID NOT MEET CRITERIA
# of qbs who were drafted in 1st round who failed to throw 20 tds in first two as starter: 21

1. 86% of qbs who did not reach this number were BUSTS or BUST/UNFINISHED.
2. 14% have become the REAL DEAL...(Big Ben, Alex Smith, Michael VicK and Vicks metrics are different because of running ability)
3. 81% of these qbs NEVER threw for 20tds in one season.
4. 9.5% of these qbs have had multiple seasons of 20+ tds (Vick + Big Ben)
5. 23.8% of qbs have led teams to multiple playoff appearances (Big Ben, Vick, Sanchez, Alex Smith)


If he gets to 20 The 12 He Joins since 2000: Luck, RGIII, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Pennington, Palmer, Cutler.

I worker hard on this whether you think it means anything....tell me what your thoughts are! LETS GO FINS
Click to expand...


WOW, you really have a lot of time on your hands
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom