If we trade down into the bottom of the first... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If we trade down into the bottom of the first...

Feverdream

Feverdream

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Had not done a mock in awhile, as I've been waiting to see if the Watson situation would resolve itself, but today in the main there was a conversation about trading way down and receiving a bounty of picks... so I tried to simulate that.

At PFN, I was offered the following trade, in exchange for the number one, Pittsburgh offered me their 1, 2, and 3 from this year, and their #1 from 2022. I took it, and the offer seemed reasonable as their QB is clearly done. Here are the results.

  • 18.
    Gregory Rousseau
    EDGE Miami (FL)

  • 24.
    Samuel Cosmi
    OT Texas

  • 36.
    Terrace Marshall Jr.
    WR LSU

  • 50.
    Creed Humphrey
    OC Oklahoma

  • 55.
    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    WR USC

  • 81.
    Kenneth Gainwell
    RB Memphis

  • 87.
    Trey Sermon
    RB Ohio State

  • 117.
    Monty Rice
    LB Georgia

  • 185.
    K.J. Britt
    LB Auburn

  • 2022 PIT 1st
Some notes... I could have taken Mayfield instead of Cosmi, and Bateman instead of Marshall, and several good safeties instead of Sermon.

I'd take this draft in a heartbeat if it was offered to me, and I think this is the sort of return you can get when you take a bounty of NFL ready players instead of one shiny Alabama bauble. I call it the 'no magic-beans' draft.

------------

Now... as a contrast, I did another draft sans trade, and got this.

  • 3.
    Ja'Marr Chase
    WR LSU

  • 18.
    Gregory Rousseau
    EDGE Miami (FL)

  • 36.
    Jalen Mayfield
    OT Michigan

  • 50.
    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    WR USC

  • 81.
    Trey Sermon
    RB Ohio State

  • 117.
    Trey Hill
    OC Georgia

  • 185.
    K.J. Britt
    LB Auburn
So... in exchange for Jamar Chase (or Devonte Smith), I gave up a 2022 #1, Terrance Marshall, Kenny Gainwell, and Monty Rice... and took a lesser Center candidate.

That is a HUGE price to pay for Devonte Smith or Jamar Chase.
 
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Feverdream said:
Had not done a mock in awhile, as I've been waiting to see if the Watson situation would resolve itself, but today in the main there was a conversation about trading way down and receiving a bounty of picks... so I tried to simulate that.

At PFN, I was offered the following trade, in exchange for the number one, Pittsburgh offered me their 1, 2, and 3 from this year, and their #1 from 2022. I took it, and the offer seemed reasonable as their QB is clearly done. Here are the results.

  • 18.
    Gregory Rousseau
    EDGE Miami (FL)

  • 24.
    Samuel Cosmi
    OT Texas

  • 36.
    Terrace Marshall Jr.
    WR LSU

  • 50.
    Creed Humphrey
    OC Oklahoma

  • 55.
    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    WR USC

  • 81.
    Kenneth Gainwell
    RB Memphis

  • 87.
    Trey Sermon
    RB Ohio State

  • 117.
    Monty Rice
    LB Georgia

  • 185.
    K.J. Britt
    LB Auburn

  • 2022 PIT 1st
Some notes... I could have taken Mayfield instead of Cosmi, and Bateman instead of Marshall, and several good safeties instead of Sermon.

I'd take this draft in a heartbeat if it was offered to me, and I think this is the sort of return you can get when you take a bounty of NFL ready players instead of one shiny Alabama bauble. I call it the 'no magic-beans' draft.

------------

Now... as a contrast, I did another draft sans trade, and got this.

  • 3.
    Ja'Marr Chase
    WR LSU

  • 18.
    Gregory Rousseau
    EDGE Miami (FL)

  • 36.
    Jalen Mayfield
    OT Michigan

  • 50.
    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    WR USC

  • 81.
    Trey Sermon
    RB Ohio State

  • 117.
    Trey Hill
    OC Georgia

  • 185.
    K.J. Britt
    LB Auburn
So... in exchange for Jamar Chase (or Devonte Smith), I gave up a 2022 #1, Terrance Marshall, Kenny Gainwell, and Monty Rice... and took a lesser Center candidate.

That is a HUGE price to pay for Devonte Smith or Jamar Chase.
Click to expand...
Definitely where the smart move is IMO --- trade down into high teens or 20s. Certifiably THE BEST WAY to max the value on that #3 "GIFT."
 
If we trade down from 3 to 18 it'd show this FO hasn't learn a thing yet after all these years. How often do you get the chance to draft elite talent? It's good to move down for more picks from time to time but you win with super stars, not with solid players. At some point we need quality instead of quantity. I hope Grier won't do something this dumb.
 
HeavenCent said:
McShay has a mock out with this trade:

Carolina - #3

Miami - #8, 2021 2nd, 2022 first
Click to expand...
I like that. That likely positions Miami for Smith, Chase or Waddle.

Also, if Parsons is the target that could be around where he is picked.

That 2022 1st rounder could be a top 10 too.
 
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BigNastyFish said:
Carolina would be foolish to give that up to move 5 spots! For REAL!
Click to expand...
Not sure about that. Teams give up a lot for QB's and if they move up to 3 it'd be for a QB. I didn't think the lions would get so much for Stafford but they did. Regardless you'd agree that if Carolina offers us that deal you would take it?
 
Danny said:
Not sure about that. Teams give up a lot for QB's and if they move up to 3 it'd be for a QB. I didn't think the lions would get so much for Stafford but they did. Regardless you'd agree that if Carolina offers us that deal you would take it?
Click to expand...
stop! have to be a certified idiot to not take that offer!

Could it possibly happen? >>>> well it's a fantasy possibility IMO but yes, pretty much any nonsense can happen.

ONLY way I see that = multiple teams in the chase and they're after Wilson.

And then -- me personally -- I do NOT pass on Wilson.

:oops:
 
I really want to trade down from #3, but not that far.

I much, MUCH prefer the McShay type move.

And that is not a wildly unreasonable price to move up for a QB, especially assuming there are other teams looking to move up for QB's.
 
Danny said:
If we trade down from 3 to 18 it'd show this FO hasn't learn a thing yet after all these years. How often do you get the chance to draft elite talent? It's good to move down for more picks from time to time but you win with super stars, not with solid players. At some point we need quality instead of quantity. I hope Grier won't do something this dumb.
Click to expand...
You honestly think Devonte Smith is worth a #1 from next year, Terrance Marshall, Kenny Gainwell, AND Monte Rice?

Really?
 
jimthefin said:
I really want to trade down from #3, but not that far.

I much, MUCH prefer the McShay type move.

And that is not a wildly unreasonable price to move up for a QB, especially assuming there are other teams looking to move up for QB's.
Click to expand...
The Carolina trade, at that cost would be a better deal, the only added benefit to the simulation that I listed was a third rounder this year... and you could get more than this trading from the #8 to the #24 in my simulation.

Given a choice between the two, anyone would go with the Carolina offer... but I did say in my opening post that I thought the Pittsburgh offer was 'reasonable', while the commenters here have suggested the Carolina offer might be on the high side.

My sim was only to quantify just exactly what we'd be passing up by foolishly taking Devonte Smith @3. A future #1 (to repeat this trade ability for next year... just in case Tua busts), a real #1 WR in Terrance Marshall, a starting Running back in Kenny Gainwell, and a probable starting MIKE in Monte Rice. With apologies to Danny... that's just nuts.
 
Here's one I pulled with Pittsburgh. Yanked their chain pretty damn hard! :oops:

Trade Down with Pitts Draft.jpg

I think Mister Grier would approve!

Kinda weird tho in the sim Pitts took Sewell @3 -- seems ridiculous to me -- ONLY reason Pitts would make that trade
is for Wilson or maybe Fields. In addition the R2 in '22 may be a tad rich... But I'm greedy as hell! :p
 
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A trade like that fills every hole that we have... as well as obtaining assets for 2022 to KEEP us in win the draft mode every year. In my mind, this is just a no-brainer. It's wise investment over spending your savings for a trip to the Bahamas.
 
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