If we trade down into the bottom of the first...

[Feverdream]

IMO Smith is an elite talent. I think it’s a mistake for people to equate measurables only with elite talent. What matters is elite traits. For a WR that’s separation ability and hands. In those categories, Smith is as elite as it gets. And in terms of need and fit, Smith is also as spot on as you can get.

To say that I doubt your analysis would be understating it.

Smith leads the draft process in one area... hype.

Hell, there isn't even a consensus on whether he is better than Chase or Waddle.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Where that analogy breaks down is that we all can tell, in advance... which one of the girls is the prettiest, but we really don't know which ones will be the best in bed... and which ones perform the best is what it boils down to.

Just because a player is ranked in the draft top 5... or top 10... doesn't even mean that he'll be decent, much less high quality. If the positions were guaranteed to produce, then the quality over quantity argument would make sense... but there are no guarantees, and the argument falls flat.

You have had some awful takes in the past few days. This one gets thrown on top of the heap. Not for the draft itself because the guidelines were established (trade-back draft), but for your awful takes on outstanding college production against competition...

If we left it to that type of thinking, we should just trade back for as many 2nd round picks as humanly possible.and play the odds that one of those players transforms into the All NFL player as opposed to his first-team All ACC recognition for his last CFB season.

 

[rafael]

To say that I doubt your analysis would be understating it.

Smith leads the draft process in one area... hype.

Hell, there isn't even a consensus on whether he is better than Chase or Waddle.

Likewise, I see Rousseau and Marshall as risk picks where you’re just as likely as not to be targeting their replacements in a year.
I see Smith as fixing Miami’s biggest weakness. I see a perfect fit with our QB and our coach. Any other option is a compromise where you’re giving up something (quick separation, chemistry, culture fit, etc).

 

[Feverdream]

Likewise, I see Rousseau and Marshall as risk picks where you’re just as likely as not to be targeting their replacements in a year.
I see Smith as fixing Miami’s biggest weakness. I see a perfect fit with our QB and our coach. Any other option is a compromise where you’re giving up something (quick separation, chemistry, culture fit, etc).

When I read your post, I remembered all of the posters last year who ranted and screamed that we had to trade all three of our #1s in order to make sure we got Tua... he was soooo much better than the other QBs, and we'd be so screwed if we got stuck with Herbert.

Remember those guys?

I mean... whoa... could they have been more wrong? I mean... coo coo, coo coo...

...and that's what I think you are doing here. You are advocating for putting all of our eggs in one bustable basket. If this one guy fails to live up to the hype, or becomes injured... you got nuthin' Absolutely nothing.

But if you spread the value of this one pick into four or five players (and we could easily do this), we've got a bunch of shots at hitting not just one home run, but several.

I call your POV the 'shiny bauble' POV, though your view... obviously... could be right.

But I doubt it.

 

[Danny]

I think you are quibbling now... taking issue with the specific players that I chose in a simulation, rather than the concept of 4 for 1, or even 5 for 1.

well, it is a simulator so we don't know how many picks we'd get in any trade and of course we don't know how those players would turn out. At the end of the day tho, it doesn't matter what I want. The team will do whatever they'll do and I'll just hope it works out for the best.

 

[rafael]

When I read your post, I remembered all of the posters last year who ranted and screamed that we had to trade all three of our #1s in order to make sure we got Tua... he was soooo much better than the other QBs, and we'd be so screwed if we got stuck with Herbert.

Remember those guys?

I mean... whoa... could they have been more wrong? I mean... coo coo, coo coo...

...and that's what I think you are doing here. You are advocating for putting all of our eggs in one bustable basket. If this one guy fails to live up to the hype, or becomes injured... you got nuthin' Absolutely nothing.

But if you spread the value of this one pick into four or five players (and we could easily do this), we've got a bunch of shots at hitting not just one home run, but several.

I call your POV the 'shiny bauble' POV, though your view... obviously... could be right.

But I doubt it.

When I see your POV I see the draft where we passed on Earl Thomas. He was an elite talent at a position of need, but some claimed he was too small and some claimed ‘you should never take a safety that high’. We traded down and got a couple of so so players.

 

[Feverdream]

When I see your POV I see the draft where we passed on Earl Thomas. He was an elite talent at a position of need, but some claimed he was too small and some claimed ‘you should never take a safety that high’. We traded down and got a couple of so so players.

You'll always be able to say, "we passed on so and so... and it was a mistake". That is the single easiest (and least credible) argument that you can make.

It's as easy to make as saying... good thing we passed on THAT guy.

There are too many instances of both, so that neither argument is valid. Unless you hit on the single best prospect at every single point in the draft, people make these spurious arguments.

In general... getting two players in an area will always be better than getting one. ...and that's what most trade downs are all about.

 

[macd123]

Dane Brugler mock draft in The Athletic today had some smaller trade downs from #3 and #18 which gives a good result without losing out as much in the player haul.

We get Smith at 6, Z Collins at 24, Etienne at 32 plus :
2022 1st round
2021 3rd round x2
2021 5th round

In exchange for #3, #18, #36 and a 2021 4th round pick.

You could change #24 to OT and #32 to Harris but I'd take that.

 

[rafael]

When I read your post, I remembered all of the posters last year who ranted and screamed that we had to trade all three of our #1s in order to make sure we got Tua... he was soooo much better than the other QBs, and we'd be so screwed if we got stuck with Herbert.

Remember those guys?

I mean... whoa... could they have been more wrong? I mean... coo coo, coo coo...

...and that's what I think you are doing here. You are advocating for putting all of our eggs in one bustable basket. If this one guy fails to live up to the hype, or becomes injured... you got nuthin' Absolutely nothing.

But if you spread the value of this one pick into four or five players (and we could easily do this), we've got a bunch of shots at hitting not just one home run, but several.

I call your POV the 'shiny bauble' POV, though your view... obviously... could be right.

But I doubt it.

When I see your POV I see the draft where we passed on Earl Thomas. He was an elite talent at a position of need, but some claimed he was too small and some claimed ‘you should never take a safety that high’. We traded down and got a couple of so so players.

You'll always be able to say, "we passed on so and so... and it was a mistake". That is the single easiest (and least credible) argument that you can make.

It's as easy to make as saying... good thing we passed on THAT guy.

There are too many instances of both, so that neither argument is valid. Unless you hit on the single best prospect at every single point in the draft, people make these spurious arguments.

In general... getting two players in an area will always be better than getting one. ...and that's what most trade downs are all about.

It's not just a "we passed on so and so". It's that we passed on a perfect fit at a position of need. It's a mistake to pass on that just to get two lower quality players.

 

[Feverdream]

Dane Brugler mock draft in The Athletic today had some smaller trade downs from #3 and #18 which gives a good result without losing out as much in the player haul.

We get Smith at 6, Z Collins at 24, Etienne at 32 plus :
2022 1st round
2021 3rd round x2
2021 5th round

In exchange for #3, #18, #36 and a 2021 4th round pick.

You could change #24 to OT and #32 to Harris but I'd take that.

I'd take most of the proposed offers that I have seen. Trading down is almost always the smart decision.

I wish we REALLY knew what sort of offers that we receive, rather than just rumours.

 

[BobDole]

I'd take most of the proposed offers that I have seen. Trading down is almost always the smart decision.

I wish we REALLY knew what sort of offers that we receive, rather than just rumours.

You've been given a few examples and I can think of about 10 off the top of my head where more clearly didn't equal better.

 

[MiamiMuss]

I'll trade down a bit with my #3 but not to far.Like 9 at most.

My #18 I would also drop down a bit to the mid 20s depending on who is there.

If you drop that 3 down to 24 we better get alot back and I am talking players and multiple picks.If not that's a recipe for normalcy and imo Miami needs to go for the STARS.

 

[Zounds]

We have a Jeff Ireland-like emergency at RB. Not sure we can wait until Day 3 to address it. We may even need 2 RB's. Its certainly possible we could trade down from No.3, but I also dont think we will be drafting top 10 again for quite a while, so it may be worth it to take the BPA at No. 3.

 

[Feverdream]

You've been given a few examples and I can think of about 10 off the top of my head where more clearly didn't equal better.

...and as I've pointed out, this boils down to cherry picking perfect examples.

For instance... How much would the Jets have prospered if they'd taken a package and not drafted Darnold?

Or... how much would teams have prospered if they had traded down and not picked Jamarcus Russell, or RGB3, or any of the other players who have busted?

C'mon... just stop it. You are trying to ignore that so many players bust, and that is illogical and intellectually dishonest.

...and that is the problem with every single poster who attempts to make this argument, they use 20/20 hindsight and select players who have worked out and then tried to say... see! SEE HOW THIS WORKZ...

and it is just a crap argument.

 

[jimthefin]

...and as I've pointed out, this boils down to cherry picking perfect examples.

For instance... How much would the Jets have prospered if they'd taken a package and not drafted Darnold?

Or... how much would teams have prospered if they had traded down and not picked Jamarcus Russell, or RGB3, or any of the other players who have busted?

C'mon... just stop it. You are trying to ignore that so many players bust, and that is illogical and intellectually dishonest.

...and that is the problem with every single poster who attempts to make this argument, they use 20/20 hindsight and select players who have worked out and then tried to say... see! SEE HOW THIS WORKZ...

and it is just a crap argument.

But you are using the exact same 20/20 hindsight to "prove" your point.

There is no absolute way to do it.

Sometimes trading down for extra ammo is the smart move, sometimes moving up for the guy you love(like KC and Mahomes for example)is the smart move.