Interesting Tannehill Stat Comparison | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Interesting Tannehill Stat Comparison

Typically judge's orders for medical records come into play in routine civil matters, such as injury cases. This is only because HIPAA created an extra layer of privacy, and with the order medical facilities have no objection. It also appears in divorce cases. As far as whether or not a judge would grant discovery of Martin's records is above my pay grade, but it's not inconceivable. It certainly seems relevant if Martin claims emotional and mental injuries directly resulting from harm by Incognito. But it doesn't seem as if Martin's claim is against Incognito, it's more broadly against the Dolphins Organization and the NFL. Incognito would be a third party, and I would think that might limit his rights to any of that information. In addition, mental health records are different than regular medical records and are legally protected. You'd have more hoops to jump through. But theoretically...if a judge signed an order, because he deemed it relevant, then the doctor or facility has no choice but to comply, or appeal. If any of that did occur, I would think that only limited information would be necessary, to establish a timeline (i.e. dates of visits prior to the incident, and diagnosis), and not the files themselves.

All this seems to be de-escalating to a degree, and certainly both Incognito and Martin have to be careful what legal claims they make, because lawyers have a right to discovery, and they can depose individuals. Martin got paid, and Incognito had some limited lost income, and will likely play for another team, so maybe they want this to go away. The NFL has deep pockets and everyone may be satisfied in the end.
My post on the topic:

Not if he puts them on trial. Then a court order overrules that kind of confidentiality, and the records become public.
There may have been a miscommunication among the people involved in the original discussion in that thread, but my point was only that there are legal means by which mental health treatment records can become public, via court order. In other words, the judge can potentially exercise more power over the treatment records than either the client or the treating professional.
 
Good question. The YPAs for the QBs I bolded are not significantly different, statistically, from Tannehill's. Although they may be slightly higher numerically, they're in the same "company" (or category) so to speak, with regard to YPA.

With regard to the three QBs not bolded, I think it's debatable that they aren't simply better than Tannehill right now.

You would certainly take other factors into account, which is why, for example, quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl every once in a blue moon.

However, let's come back to what we're trying to do here. We're trying to appraise the development of an unproven QB. Would you rather hold him to the standard of accomplishment with regard to the variable that best predicts whether he's going to demonstrate the kind of ability that gives the team best chance to compete at a very high level, or would you rather view him as a possible exception to the rule, and start thinking about how you're going to need to compensate for his performance in that regard by pumping up other areas of the team?

So do you think Tannehill is roughly of the same talent level as the bolded quarterbacks? That seems a little weird to me, given that almost every other metric and talent evaluation says otherwise. Tannehill has things to work on, but I can't believe that there's nothing deflating his YPA enough to put him in the same boat as them.
 
Stats schats. The kid has "it". He'll be around for a long while.
 
So do you think Tannehill is roughly of the same talent level as the bolded quarterbacks? That seems a little weird to me, given that almost every other metric and talent evaluation says otherwise. Tannehill has things to work on, but I can't believe that there's nothing deflating his YPA enough to put him in the same boat as them.
Well remember that what we're talking about here is passing efficiency, not anything more broad than that.

Of course it's possible that there are team variables that are artificially deflating his YPA, but I'm unaware of any that can be supported objectively. Consequently the most parsimonious explanation in my opinion is that he currently isn't extraordinarily efficient in terms of his own individual ability.

That isn't what any dyed in the wool fan of the team wants to hear, because we know at least on some level that our hopes for the team hinge largely on Tannehill's ability, but the objective evidence points in that direction in my opinion.
 
Stats schats. The kid has "it". He'll be around for a long while.
Never mind these stats that are valid measures of individual play and are so strongly correlated with winning. Let's talk about the immeasurable and undefinable "it" that people who watch all the games can't even reach a consensus on. ;)
 
Shou you keep going on about certain stats that show great QBs but 25% of the top 20 in YPA are very average QBs. That puts a huge dent in your theory. Or the correlation would be much higher. Also many of the top QBs had low YPA to start their careers. YPA is an important stat but it is not the end all be all. No matter how you think or try to correlate it. The question is, has Ryan improved upon each of his stats this year and will the last three games help build on the positive movement? Also going into year 3 will he improve even more? Right now year 2 stat wise and "eye" test wise he has improved. Let's pray he continues to keep getting better.
 
Shou you keep going on about certain stats that show great QBs but 25% of the top 20 in YPA are very average QBs. That puts a huge dent in your theory. Or the correlation would be much higher.
On the contrary, take a look here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Every QB with a score of 114 or lower isn't significantly better than average in YPA. That leaves Brees, Rivers, Manning, Wilson, and Rodgers as the extraordinarily good QBs in that regard. I have no idea why you've decided to make your "cutoff" the 20th-ranked QB and determine a percentage within that group that runs counter to the idea.

Additionally, look here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

These are your QBs with at least 1000 passing attempts since the advent of the salary cap in 1994. Note the QBs with scores of 115 or better in the highlighted column. Note also the kind of QB you start talking about, generally, when you get down around the score Tannehill has currently (94).

Also many of the top QBs had low YPA to start their careers.
Sure, and I've said nothing about the use of the stat in a predictive manner. It's entirely possible that Ryan Tannehill improves tremendously with regard to it as time goes on.

YPA is an important stat but it is not the end all be all. No matter how you think or try to correlate it. The question is, has Ryan improved upon each of his stats this year and will the last three games help build on the positive movement? Also going into year 3 will he improve even more? Right now year 2 stat wise and "eye" test wise he has improved. Let's pray he continues to keep getting better.
He's certainly improved overall. However, the most important remaining improvement he needs to make is with regard to what we're talking about here: passing efficiency.
 
Yeah above or around 115 are Trent Green and Culpepper. Followed closely by Jeff George and Chris Chandler. These guys are rated higher than Dan Marino and Tom Brady. That's a great stat to use
 
Yeah above or around 115 are Trent Green and Culpepper. Followed closely by Jeff George and Chris Chandler. These guys are rated higher than Dan Marino and Tom Brady. That's a great stat to use

What I'm trying to get you to realize is stats help tell a lot of the story but if this was ironclad or even closer to be the best thing to determine success then we should have different guys in the HOF. I cut it off in the top 20 because already there was a 25% rate of which guys who did not have amazing careers were in it. Going top 40 actually would decrease the correlation more of having yards per attempt index to being a great QB.
 
Yeah above or around 115 are Trent Green and Culpepper. Followed closely by Jeff George and Chris Chandler. These guys are rated higher than Dan Marino and Tom Brady. That's a great stat to use
There are exceptions to every rule. Nonetheless, Green, Culpepper, George, and Chandler had seven Pro Bowls among them. They weren't chopped liver.

Did you happen to notice what kind of quarterback you find, generally, when you get down around Tannehill's level? Or is that something we'd rather just ignore. ;)
 
Shou, you are in your mind the ten best QBs on that entire list? Is it the top 10 which the numbers would state or is there more to it than that? Maybe what you saw a QB do. Like Favre who's 21st, is he the 21st best QB for you or is he closer to top 10?
 
There are exceptions to every rule. :)

Did you happen to notice what kind of quarterback you find, generally, when you get down around Tannehill's level? Or is that something we'd rather just ignore. ;)

I have to ignore, because the data set you are presenting is so off base with what or who are the best QB ever. You acting like this is a silver bullet.

Exceptions, Jesus it's half the rule. There are 7 guys who are rated higher than Kelly or Favre but they are apparently better by using this stat
 
Shou, you are in your mind the ten best QBs on that entire list? Is it the top 10 which the numbers would state or is there more to it than that? Maybe what you saw a QB do. Like Favre who's 21st, is he the 21st best QB for you or is he closer to top 10?
What I'd encourage you to do with that list is look at increments of 10 points and determine the caliber of QB in that group, generally.

Since the bottom player on the list has a score of 80, take a look at the caliber of QB you find, again generally, between 80 and 90. Do the same for 91 through 100, 101 through 110, and then 111 and above.

While I imagine you'll perceive a smattering here and there of QBs who "don't belong" in those groups, such as Jay Fielder's being near Warren Moon, I think you'll find that overall, in general, there's a darn good correspondence between the ordering of those QBs and the perceptions of their individual ability.

We're never going to find a "perfect" statistic. However, when you have one that's this strongly correlated with individual ability and with winning, you should probably be rooting for your quarterback to do well with regard to it.
 
I have to ignore, because the data set you are presenting is so off base with what or who are the best QB ever. You acting like this is a silver bullet.

Exceptions, Jesus it's half the rule. There are 7 guys who are rated higher than Kelly or Favre but they are apparently better by using this stat
And what percentage above Kelly and Favre could be argued are at least as good? What percentage below Kelly and Favre are clearly worse? How do those percentages compare?

You need to understand how correlations work. You don't say height and weight aren't correlated because there's "that one guy" who's seven feet tall and weighs only 190 pounds, and "that other guy" who's only five feet tall and weighs 300. Exceptions to the rule don't invalidate the correlation.
 
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