Interesting Tannehill Stat Comparison

[FinfanInBuffalo]

What was theoretical about it were the two values that follow the equals sign. However, we now know the equation looks like this:

YPA = 74% (yards in the air) + 26% (yards after the catch)

...versus something else (theoretically), where YAC is thought to be weighted more heavily than a mere 26%.

First of all, your formula makes no sense. I think you really did fail algebra. There is no "weighting" of anything. Simply:

avg YPA = (Avg yards in the air) + (avg yards after catch)

I think you are trying to say that on average passing yards (and therefor YPA) is made up of 74% yards in the air and 36% yards after catch. But, you wouldn't even compute it using "league wide" correlation (or whatever you did). You'd simply do the math (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division), by game, by QB, or league wide.

Those ratios may very well be accurate BUT that does not mean YPA and YAC are "largely independent". In fact, one is used to compute the other. You don't need stats to figure that out, just common sense and algebra.

so...... :blowup:

You've tried to make two points in this thread:

1. YPA is "largely independent" of YAC. That is shown to be false above. The question is "Why would you make that claim?" the answer is "You are desperate to make Tannehill look average". To you, an average YPA = Average QB. It is inconvenient for a portion of the YPA to be attributable to something other than Tannehill. If I'm not mistaken, it has already been mentioned in one of these threads that the Dolphin receivers have lower than average YAC and that hurts your argument against Tannehill if you acknowledge that YPA is significantly affected by YAC.

2. YPA is a QB-only stat. This has also been refuted by me (once again using logic and the formulas used by the league to compute YPA). Here again, we have the same motivation for you. "Tannehill must be average". You ignored this post in the past, so I'll include it for your convenience:

Passing yards = yards in the air + yards after catch - sack yards.

Yards in the air is determined by the pass patterns called.

pass attempts are increased with no gain in passing yards if a receiver drops a pass

YPA = passing yards / pass attempts

All of the bolded items (IMO) are impacted by others more than the play of the QB. It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others.

So where am I wrong about YPA being a team stat? What is theoretical about any of this?

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion. :up:

I honestly believe that you could come to the conclusion that human legs are weightless because there is only a moderately strong correlation between the number of legs someone has and their weight.......

 

[Shouright]

I think you are trying to say that on average passing yards (and therefor YPA) is made up of 74% yards in the air and 26% yards after catch.

No, what I'm saying is that only 26% of the variation in YPA is associated with YAC. In other words, 74% of the variation in YPA (the vast majority of it) is explained by things other than YAC.

The cause of one variable is another variable(s) that explains a large percentage of the variation in it. For example, height is a primary cause of weight, and the correlation between height and weight is such that height explains a great deal of the variation in weight.

Now, if YAC were truly a primary cause of YPA, it would need to explain more than just 26% of the variation in it, yet that's all it explains. 74% of the variation in YPA is unaccounted for by YAC.

All of the bolded items (IMO) are impacted by others more than the play of the QB. It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others.

So where am I wrong about YPA being a team stat? What is theoretical about any of this?

What is telling you -- objectively, not in theory -- that the variation in YPA is due significantly to things other than the individual ability of the quarterback?

Notice your "IMO" (bolded) in the quote above. You're working with an opinion here. These things can be teased apart statistically so that we're dealing with more than just a theoretical opinion.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

No, what I'm saying is that only 26% of the variation in YPA is associated with YAC. In other words, 74% of the variation in YPA (the vast majority of it) is explained by things other than YAC.

The cause of one variable is another variable(s) that explains a large percentage of the variation in it. For example, height is a primary cause of weight, and the correlation between height and weight is such that height explains a great deal of the variation in weight.

Now, if YAC were truly a primary cause of YPA, it would need to explain more than just 26% of the variation in it, yet that's all it explains. 74% of the variation in YPA is unaccounted for by YAC.

Who said it was a primary cause? Do you not realize that (even if it is true) that only 26% of the variation in YPA is associated with YAC, that doesn't mean Tannehill's YPA isn't more adversely affected by low YAC that other QBs? Do you realize that it doesn't mean ALL QB's YPA is made up of the same ratio of YIA and YAC? I don't think you really know how to apply your statistical theory.

What is telling you -- objectively, not in theory -- that the variation in YPA is due significantly to things other than the individual ability of the quarterback?

Notice your "IMO" (bolded) in the quote above. You're working with an opinion here. These things can be teased apart statistically so that we're dealing with more than just a theoretical opinion.

Why did you ignore this part "It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others." and therefor A TEAM STAT? Because it refutes your argument.

What is telling you that YPA is not due significantly to things other than the individual ability of the quarterback?

 

[2413fanphins]

Finfaninbuffalo basically owning this thread.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

There are exceptions to every rule.

I pick Tannehill as my exception! Go Fins!

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

This is why I'm ready and willing to analyze the effect of contextual variables, as in the post just above this one, and as I've done throughout the season.

Once again, there are no contextual variables that are significantly associated, objectively, with Ryan Tannehill's YPA this year. We can sure nominate such relationships in theory, but they haven't panned out when analyzed objectively.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

 

[Shouright]

Who said it was a primary cause? Do you not realize that (even if it is true) that only 26% of the variation in YPA is associated with YAC, that doesn't mean Tannehill's YPA isn't more adversely affected by low YAC that other QBs? Do you realize that it doesn't mean ALL QB's YPA is made up of the same ratio of YIA and YAC? I don't think you really know how to apply your statistical theory.

Is it? I'd love to hear the objective evidence in support of that.

Why did you ignore this part "It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others." and therefor A TEAM STAT? Because it refutes your argument.

Of course it's deniable. If you ran a multiple regression with all the possible variables and found that the only significant predictor of YPA was individual quarterbacks' ability, you would in fact deny what you're saying. It would then be only a theoretical proposition and not something supported by objective evidence.

What is telling you that YPA is not due significantly to things other than the individual ability of the quarterback?

We're dealing with Tannehill here, right? I've looked at the correlations between sacks and YPA, offensive line play (as measured by PFF) and YPA, and running game variables and YPA, game-to-game for Tannehill this year. None of those variables are associated with his YPA game-to-game. In other words, his variation in YPA this year is independent of those other variables. It doesn't hinge on any of them.

That fits, again, with the correspondence (or correlation) I believe we can see here between YPA and the consensus perceptions of QBs' individual ability:

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

 

[rent this space]

if the difference between the top ten and bottom ten in YPA is very little (1 yard or 15%) wouldn't it be reasonable to think that smaller factors could make a noticable impact?

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Is it? I'd love to hear the objective evidence in support of that.

Rankings for YAC for his #1 and #2 WR:

52 Brian Hartline, WR MIA 67 112 855 12.8 4 34 12 65.8 0 257 46
66 Mike Wallace, WR MIA 58 110 762 13.1 3 57 9 58.6 0 241 37

On a team with the 10th most passing yards, I'd expect to see higher ranking for yards after catch or the avg YIA for Tannehill MUST BE HIGHER than other QBs with similar number of passing yards.

For the last time.... YOU DON'T NEED TO DO A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THIS. YOU ONLY NEED TO SUBTRACT YAC FROM PASSING YARDS AND DIVIDE BY ATTEMPTS TO GET THE AVG YIA FOR EACH QB. FFFFFFFF********CCCCCCKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As late as the end of October, Wallace with 6th in the league in dropped passes. DROPPED PASSES DECREASE YPA.

The team has led the league in sacks all year. Sack remove yards from net passing and DECREASE YPA.

Of course it's deniable. If you ran a multiple regression with all the possible variables and found that the only significant predictor of YPA was individual quarterbacks' ability, you would in fact deny what you're saying. It would then be only a theoretical proposition and not something supported by objective evidence.

IF???? So your brilliant rebuttal is that "if it weren't true it would be deniable"? WTF?

We're dealing with Tannehill here, right? I've looked at the correlations between sacks and YPA, offensive line play (as measured by PFF) and YPA, and running game variables and YPA, game-to-game for Tannehill this year. None of those variables are associated with his YPA game-to-game. In other words, his variation in YPA this year is independent of those other variables. It doesn't hinge on any of them.

And all other variables were the same for each of those games? opponent, score, weather, etc, etc, the LONE remaining variable was QB's ability? right?


To top if off, you have no credibility because in your mind - "moderately strong correlation" = "largely independent variables" which is bunk.

You seriously don't understand how to apply statistics at all.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

You've tried to make two points in this thread:

1. YPA is "largely independent" of YAC. That is shown to be false above. The question is "Why would you make that claim?" the answer is "You are desperate to make Tannehill look average". To you, an average YPA = Average QB. It is inconvenient for a portion of the YPA to be attributable to something other than Tannehill. If I'm not mistaken, it has already been mentioned in one of these threads that the Dolphin receivers have lower than average YAC and that hurts your argument against Tannehill if you acknowledge that YPA is significantly affected by YAC.

2. YPA is a QB-only stat. This has also been refuted by me (once again using logic and the formulas used by the league to compute YPA). Here again, we have the same motivation for you. "Tannehill must be average". You ignored this post in the past, so I'll include it for your convenience:

Passing yards = yards in the air + yards after catch - sack yards.

Yards in the air is determined by the pass patterns called.

pass attempts are increased with no gain in passing yards if a receiver drops a pass

YPA = passing yards / pass attempts

All of the bolded items (IMO) are impacted by others more than the play of the QB. It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others.

So where am I wrong about YPA being a team stat? What is theoretical about any of this?

Here is a link to an article to follow up on the fact that YIA and YAC are related and therefor YPA and YAC are related.

http://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-attempt-where-does-it-go-wrong/

Important points from this article:

We can also follow up on yesterday’s post by looking at Air Yards vs. YAC for each distance or depth of throw. Air Yards is in red and on the right Y-Axis, while average yards after the catch is in blue and measured against the left Y-Axis. Initially, there is a pretty strong inverse relationship, just like with completion percentage and yards per completion. On a completion that is one yard past the line of scrimmage, the average YAC is 5.5; on a completion 10 yards downfield, the average YAC drops to 3.0. This is why players like Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb will rack up huge YAC numbers. But once you get past 13 or 14 yards, YAC starts to rise again. This makes sense, as that far down the field, a player is just one broken tackle away from a huge gain (I suspect using median YAC might paint a different picture).

Whatever the theory, this chart makes it clear that Yards per Attempt isn’t really system-neutral. Deep throwers have an advantage, because the dropoff rate in completion percentage — at least in 2012 — wasn’t disproportionate to the increase in yards per completion. This also makes sense in light of two of the surprise finishers in the top 12 in yards per attempt last season: Cam Newton and Josh Freeman.

But, but, but YPA is ALL about the QB's ability!!!!!

Newton actually finished third in the league in yards per attempt last season. But no one would say he was the third most efficient quarterback last season, which is a sign that his Y/A is inflated by the fact that he throws deep passes.

And just to make the problem even more complicated, while Newton was a big downfield thrower (he ranked 5th in Air Yards/Completed Pass), he also ranked 1st in YAC per completed pass, which obviously helped raise his yards per completion average. Freeman ranked 3rd in AY/CP and just inside the top ten in YAC per completion.

But, but, but they are largely independent!!!!!!

I do have another thought. We can use first down data to help smooth out this issue, at least a little. If we modify Y/A by giving a bonus for passing first downs, that would help out Tom Brady and the Patriots. Brady ranked only 8th in Y/A last year (although he was 6th in NY/A and 3rd in ANY/A), but the Patriots were second in passing first downs per attempt last year, so that would bump them up. And I’m okay with bumping up Matt Ryan, too, as his Falcons were first in first downs per pass attempt but 7th in Y/A. (Of course, Matt Ryan is just a proxy for Matt Ryan playing on the Atlanta Falcons with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez).

WHAT?????? Admitting that a QB's teammates have an impact on his Y/A??????? That's impossible

BTW, the non-linear relationship between Air Yards and YAC is a problem for you trying to answer every question with a linear correlation between two variables.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Then there is this little tidbit:

http://smartfootball.com/stats/a-better-box-score-simple-ways-to-improve-the-basic-game-recap#sthash.IASwMs2h.dpbs

Yards After Catch/Air Yards: Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats has done great work on yards after catch and the corollary statistics, “Air Yards” or the amount of a quarterback’s passing yards which come purely from how far the ball travels in flight, ignoring what the receiver does after he catches the ball. Although I still abide by the belief of Bill Walsh that accurate passing is a big part of yards after the catch, Burke’s studies of the NFL seems to indicate that Air Yards is very consistent by quarterback (i.e., better quarterbacks tend to, on the whole, get more of their yards from the ball in the air versus yards after catch) while YAC is very consistent by receiver — some gets lots of YAC and some don’t.

Where does Tannehill rank? 8th in Air Yards and 15th in YAC.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

Only 3 QBs ahead of him in Air Yards have fewer attempts and they are all pretty close.

There is not a single QB below him in YAC that has fewer attempts. In other words, his YAC per attempt is even worse than 15th.

 

[rent this space]

Then there is this little tidbit:

http://smartfootball.com/stats/a-better-box-score-simple-ways-to-improve-the-basic-game-recap#sthash.IASwMs2h.dpbs



Where does Tannehill rank? 8th in Air Yards and 15th in YAC.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

Only 3 QBs ahead of him in Air Yards have fewer attempts and they are all pretty close.

There is not a single QB below him in YAC that has fewer attempts. In other words, his YAC per attempt is even worse than 15th.

I think someone said he was 28th in YAC

 

[Shouright]

So far this year Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 1913 yards in the air.

His receivers have dropped 28 of his pass attempts, which have totaled 352 yards in the air.

He's attempted 484 passes on the season.

His average yards in the air per pass attempt, correcting for yards on dropped passes, is 4.679.

The average number of yards in the air per pass attempt in the league, correcting for yards on dropped passes, is 4.427, with a standard deviation of 0.536.

Tannehill is 0.47 standard deviations above the league average, or in the 68th percentile, which isn't significantly different from the league average.

In other words, similar to so many of the rest of the statistics that can be attributed to Tannehill's play, at the present time he isn't significantly different from average with regard to yards in the air per pass attempt, correcting for dropped passes.

Folks, we have an average quarterback right now, no matter how hard we try to make him some sort of exception to the rule in various ways.

The guy may improve down the road, but right now he's an average quarterback.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

So far this year Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 1913 yards in the air.

His receivers have dropped 28 of his pass attempts, which have totaled 352 yards in the air.

He's attempted 484 passes on the season.

His average yards in the air per pass attempt, correcting for yards on dropped passes, is 4.679.

The average number of yards in the air per pass attempt in the league, correcting for yards on dropped passes, is 4.427, with a standard deviation of 0.536.

Tannehill is 0.47 standard deviations above the league average, or in the 68th percentile, which isn't significantly different from the league average.

In other words, similar to so many of the rest of the statistics that can be attributed to Tannehill's play, at the present time he isn't significantly different from average with regard to yards in the air per pass attempt, correcting for dropped passes.

Folks, we have an average quarterback right now, no matter how hard we try to make him some sort of exception to the rule in various ways.

The guy may improve down the road, but right now he's an average quarterback.

So where does that put him? 10th in the league? As a 2nd year player behind a shaky OL? I'll take it. Instead of hiding behind your ridiculous statement that he isn't "significantly above average" (which you seem to pull out whenever he is above average), why not just state where he ranks and who is above him? Because it fits your agenda to phrase things the way you do.

Here is his company for air yards. He is easily the least experienced QB on this list. Half of them have won SBs. I'll take it.

1 P.Manning
2 D.Brees
3 P.Rivers
4 M.Stafford
5 E.Manning
6 T.Brady
7 C.Palmer
8 R.Tannehill
9 B.Roethlisberger
10 M.Ryan
11 T.Romo
12 J.Flacco