jguig said:While you make many good points, keep in mind that "why" we sucked doesn't change the outcome on the field of play. Yes, there were many reasons and there have been steps taken to address that. However, your explanations above gloss over some very real problems.
Our QB has essentially rookie experience. He's now learning another system with yet another coach.
Our OL may have one year behind them, but they were deplorable last year. That was a key reason we had such poor offensive production. If they were half decent, we could have run to some degree. Or held the pass rush to allow the QB some time. Yes, they too have a new coach. He's not a magician. It takes a while to build a great OL.
Our defense is getting older. Zach and Junior are getting up there. Bowens can't be expected to play. His injury doesn't allow someone to take that kind of a beating. We've just lost our best DB. Even though our Defense may not rely on they play of the DT as you suggest, we now have it relying on Seau returning from a serious injury at his advanced age, and Zach who is aging and undersized. I love them both, but it is a lot to ask from them.
True, it is a different team. A better team with a more aggressive attitude. That's why I think 8 - 8 is realistic. People who are saying better than 10 wins are just deluding themselves with optimism.
All that is very true, and those are problems that will have to be delt with this year, but I believe the biggest problem that was holding us back from at least winning some games, was the coaching itself. Our O-line was not that good last year, but they really were not much better the year before (There was too much age on our line 2 years ago, and they were showing it), but because of a good RB, we were still able to have some success on the ground, which forced teams not to just play the pass, which gave us more shots threw the air, we ended winning 10 games. Last year with all our problems, we were in every game except the Jets home game, and could have won 5-6 extra games with some good coaching.
Out defense is aging, but still very effective, in 2-3 years this defense is going to fall apart if nothing is done (Saban has already started rebuilding), but this year this Defense at worse will be solid to slightly above average (I think they could be top ten this year...maybe better). Out biggest problem will not be QB, D-line, O-line, but how we respond to losing our starting CB, and two safeties. We might expierience some learning pains in the 1st few games, but I think in the long run, we will be able to hide our weakness in zone, and will be just as effective as Pats and Steelers have been with only 1 or 2 quality DBs.
I think we will win 9 or 10 games, but if this team gells, and plays well, saying that Miami wins 12 or more games might not be so far fetched.