After narrowing down Miami's needs, I ordered the positions by top-10 contract value. The idea is simple, but many overlook it. Let's look at 2017's 11th pick, Marshon Lattimore. He makes just under 4M per year - almost 10M less than the average top-10 CB contract, and he certainly was one of the ten best CB's in 2017. What if Lattimore was just as good but a RB? His 4M contract would be just 3M less than the top-10 average for the position (almost a 7M difference between CB and RB). Of course, the difference for QB and DE is even more significant. DT's who can rush the passer/make plays in the backfield also make more, but this class lacks that type of talent.
While it's nice to save money, the contracts reflect the way the NFL values each position. Through some combination positional impact and scarcity, the league thinks a high-end DE is more than twice as valuable as a high-end RB. When we look at the positions that the league values, it's pretty easy to figure out the why. QB, Pass rusher, disruptive IDL, CB, OT, and WR are the positions that have the greatest affect on a given team's pass offense and pass defense. You want a QB, want to disrupt the other team's QB, and you want to help your QB. Again, the idea is simple, but it's also crucial. A team cannot, or should not, go into the draft assuming all their needs are of equal importance and urgency. So, let's look at Miami's most pressing needs and the value the league places on each. The score next to each position indicates the relationship the QB position and the rest (Safeties make 40% of what QB's make, for example). *Please note that while DT's have large contracts at the top, these contracts are reserved for players who make a lot of play in the backfield and disrupt the passing game. Even high-end run defenders like Damon Harrison make less than 10M per. If you think the draft has a Suh, McCoy, Donald, Cox, etc., you can take that 5.53 at face value; if you don't (I don't), DT should be valued closer to S or TE, and that's why it's listed lower.
Now that we're on the same page, let me add a caveat: don't pass up a LB you project to be a Pro Bowl/All Pro-type player for a starting-caliber DE or CB. Talent is still king. Regardless of position, you need players who can make plays, so we're not passing up playmakers at low-value positions for jags at high-value positions.
QB - 10.0
DE - 6.27
CB - 5.37
WR - 5.06
LB - 4.24
FS - 4.0
TE - 3.76
DT - 5.53*
RB - 2.78
For Miami's board, I did not bother listing players who are likely to be gone - would consider Guice at 73, along with Penny and Kelly, but he should be long gone.
11
QB Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen
DE Bradley Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Harold Landry
CB Josh Jackson, Jaire Alexander, Derwin James
WR DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton
LB Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, Leighton Vander Esch
FS N/A
TE N/A
DT N/A
RB N/A
42
QB Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson
DE Josh Sweat
CB Quenton Meeks
WR Michael Gallup
LB Malik Jefferson
FS DeShon Elliott, Tarvarius Moore, Justin Reid
TE Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert
DT Harrison Phillips, Maurice Hurst
RB N/A
73
QB N/A
DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
CB Duke Dawson, Josh Kalu, DJ Reed, Parry Nickerson, MJ Stewart, Darius Phillips, Dane Cruikshank
WR N/A (DJ Chark)
LB N/A
FS N/A
TE N/A
DT N/A
RB Rashaad Penny, John Kelly
111
QB N/A
DE Joe Ostman, Tyquan Lewis, Marcell Frazier, Dorance Armstrong Jr
CB Deatrich Nichols, Jalen Davis, Emmanuel Mosley, Jermaine Kelly, Amari Coleman, Donte Jackson
WR Cedrick Wilson, Steve Ishmael, Keke Coutee, Richie James, Dante Pettis, TreQuan Smith, Allen Lazard, Korey Robertson
LB Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Micah Kiser, , Genard Avery, Matthew Thomas, Christian Sam
FS Trayvon Henderson, Jordan Whitehead, Armani Watts, Tracy Walker, Jeremy Reaves, Godwin Igwebuike
TE Mark Andrews, Tyler Conklin, Ian Thomas
DT Trenton Thompson, PJ Hall, Folorunso Fatukasi, Bilal Nichols
RB Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Akrum Wadley, Nyheim Hines, Sony Michel, Kalen Ballage, Jaylen Samuels
131
QB N/A
DE N/A
CB N/A
WR Jordan Lasley, Trey Quinn, Justin Watson
LB Oren Burks, Jerome Baker
FS N/A
TE N/A
DT Derrick Nnadi
RB N/A
183
QB Logan Woodside, JT Barrett
DE Jeremy Smith, Duke Ejiofor, Sharif Finch
CB Tre Herndon, Linden Stephens, Avante Maddox, Andre Chachere, Kameron Kelly, Holton Hill, Darious Williams, Jordan Thomas
WR N/A
LB Dorian O'Daniel, Fred Warner, Quentin Poling, Darius Leonard
FS Ronnie Harrison, Quin Banding, Marcus Allen, Siran Neal, Kyzir White
TE Chris Herndon
DT Nathan Shepherd, Deadrin Senat, James Looney, BJ Hill, Poona Ford
RB Phillip Lindsay, Ito Smith, Josh Adams, Mark Walton, Justin Jackson, Ryan Nall
223
QB Riley Ferguson, John Wolford
DE Antonio Simmons, Tee Sims
CB Heath Harding, Arrion Springs, Greg Stroman, Henre Toliver
WR N/A
LB N/A
FS N/A
TE Troy Fumagalli, Dalton Schultz, Durham Smythe
DT N/A
RB Larry Rose III
229
QB N/A
DE N/A
CB N/A
WR N/A
LB Frank Ginda, Andre Smith, DeMarquis Gates, Josie Jewell
FS Terrell Edmunds
TE N/A
DT N/A
RB Jarvion Franklin
