Jets Open As One Point Favorite Versus Dolphins
- Thread starter Dolph N.Fan
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Dolph N.Fan
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Please when the jets play New England, Green Bay , Minnesota, Jacksonville, the Jets will look pedestrian. It’s one game
ANUFan
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Defintely a combination of the two. But the Jets defense looks like the real deal and the offense seems to be good enough with the Rookie.
I always use the Patriots as the gauge for our division.
The Patriots have a way of letting you know how legit a team really is.
We've seen the Jets and Bills look dominate several times only to get embarrassed as soon as the play the Pats.
EmperorPhin
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Jets will destroy us
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Of course this won't be the outcome against tough teams. The level of domination on the road in every phase of the game against a team that was at least decent last year is more than an accident.
phins_4_ever
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Not sure i I am overly concerned as others. It will be a tough game no doubt. But it is a division game. And let's not forget the score blew up in the 3rd quarter.
Darnell looked good but now we have film on him. It won't be a blowout either way.
Dolph N.Fan
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It’s a new season. Detroit could be one of the worst teams this season.
ANUFan
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You could never play on my team.
AphexPhin
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The Jets D looked great at creating TOs . Tannehill will have to be on his A game if we're going to win in their place next week
Good luck with that.
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Looking that way.
We'll find out Sunday how Miami and the Jets measure up. Wouldn't be the first time a team has looked dominant one week and not so good the next.
Dolph N.Fan
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As Miami fans we can all agree on this.
phins_4_ever
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They also have nearly 30 UFAs. 98 Mill sounds a lot but once you realize that less than half your team is under contract that number is not that big anymore. In comparison we will have some 13 UFAs I believe.
Oh brother. I have no idea how that conventional wisdom exists but I wish I didn't have to spend so many posts every season trying to deflect it.
Granted, I realize at this point it will never succeed. There are people willing to swallow it throughout their life.
A pointspread is absolutely a prediction of the outcome. I got chief Nevada oddsmaker Michael Roxborough to emphasize that fact on The Stardust Line radio show in Las Vegas during the late '80s, while responding to my related question. Roxborough has class and will be straight forward, unlike many other Las Vegas sports betting big shots who think it is necessary and wonderful to fool the public and convince them something mysterious and ultra sophisticated is going on behind the scenes.
As always, the best way to verify is to point to the money line...the straight up odds, like -145 on the favorite and +125 on the underdog, which is what a 2.5 point game would hold. The pointspread comes first and then the money line is put up to correspond with the spread. There is a money line table that is immediately applied, to prevent subjective excess. So people wagering on the straight up outcome (money line) are doing so based on a number sourced from the pointspread, but people want to believe that spread itself has nothing to do with the projected outcome or "weighting the teams."
That blended consensus of stolen power ratings provides the pointspread. As someone else pointed out early in the thread, the Jets favored by 1 basically means that Miami entering tonight was considered roughly 2 points superior to the Jets. NFL home field advantage is 2.7 points but typically rounded up for convenience purposes.
Sigh. I realize this is more wordy than I intended. Probably not helping my cause. The basic problem always seems to be that people don't want to believe something as simple and mathematical as a power rating is responsible for all the pointspreads they see every week and all year long. They prefer the glamorized notion of Las Vegas wise guys subjectively analyzing each and every game, and brilliantly figuring out exactly what number will balance the action.
That is crap. The industry has no time for that. The pointspread as sourced from the power ratings does a fine job splitting the action. Then the books adjust the number based on action.
As always, this link depicts what happens better than anything else during an oddsmaker meeting. Notice how little discussion there is...maybe 30 seconds to one minute per game on average all year long. That's because everyone in the room is looking at the same thing...the blended power ratings:
http://vegasseven.com/2013/03/20/making-line/
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