****Justin Herbert Super Thread**** | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

****Justin Herbert Super Thread****

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FSU Truth said:
It was more of a reference for the ****ty defenses and putting up good numbers...

Mahomes - Big 12
Wilson - ACC/then Big 10
Brady - Big 10
Brees - Big 10
Jackson - ACC
Watson - ACC
Rogers - Pac 12
Tannehill - Big 12 (at the time, now SEC)
Cousins - BIg 10
Stafford - SEC
Wentz - MVCF
Prescott - SEC
Ryan - ACC
Murray - Big 12
Garappalo - OVFC
Carr - Mountain West
Fitzpatrick - Ivy
Allen - Mountain West
Goff - Pac 12
Rivers - ACC
Winston ACC
Bridgewater - ACC
Jones - ACC
Mayfield - Big 12
Minshew - Pac 12
Darnold - Pac 12
Brissett - ACC
Haskins - Big 10
Lock - SEC
Dalton - Big 12
Trubisky - ACC
Flacco - Colonial

I think that is 32/33 NFL QBs that started this past season...

ACC - 9
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 4
Pac 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Other - 6
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Great Post! And makes me go hmmmmm....If you are a top QB prospect, maybe the vaunted SEC is not the place to play if you want a career in the NFL. Food for thought.
 
Dolphinator530 said:
The Rose Bowl is an odd example because he ran well and showed athleticism but was eh throwing the ball, his completion percentage was high but outside of one 28 yard completion he had 110 yards on 13 completions for like 8.46 YPC. It was a microsocm of his style of play, a few great plays where you are like okay lets see this develop and then an equal number of WTF dude how can you throw that or how can you not see the guy streaking down the sidelines wide open. Wisconsin was okay with pass defense but only had 20 sacks (Young had 16.5 by himself) and 5 picks so they were not a ball hawking pressure defense. Plus they gave up like 5.5 YPC so people ran up and down the field on them. So his in ability to really generate offense against a meh defense and look completely average against the best defense in the pac 12 in Utah, his running game won that game for them. You see every tool in the world to build on but you wonder where the other elements needed for success lie.
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But then he added to it with a very good practice and game in the Senior bowl...Better then Love, the guy that many all of a sudden are very high on.

Am I saying that Herbert is a sure fire star from day one like Burrow, and/or Tua?

No, there is a chance he could need to work hard at the next level before he's ready, and yes, there could also be a slight chance he amounts to nothing, but if you feel good about your coaches (I hope they do), then he has to be an option if Burrow goes as expected, and Miami either never gets a chance at Tua, or don't feel it's worth the risk with his injury.

Trading up for Tua is way too risky, and for Burrow is very likely not worth it.

By the way...286/428 (66.8%) for 3471 (8.1), with 32 TDs and only 6 INTs are good numbers.
 
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Locke said:
What makes you say that? Literally nothing has changed with him other than a positive medical check up last week.
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As Daniel Jeremiah pointed out on “Movin the sticks”.... QB’s that are injury prone in college tend to be injury prone in the pro’s.... it’s about the odds and the risk!
 
FSU Truth said:
Hoping a QB all of the sudden begins to process play quickly and begins to have a feel for the rush and all of the sudden can play under pressure is as risky and just as foolish.

Herbert has missed time as well.

I'll take the Tua injury risk knowing that I will have my answer in a year rather then waiting 5 plus years for Herbert to all of the sudden "get it". Talk about a hit to a franchise.
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Disagree with that thinking... you draft a QB every year until you land one...and then you keep drafting a QB every year at some point after for value!
 
tay0365 said:
But then he added to it with a very good practice and game in the Senior bowl...Better then Love, the guy that many all of a sudden are very high on.

Am I saying that Herbert is a sure fire star from day one like Burrow, and/or Tua?

No, there is a chance he could need to work hard at the next level before he's ready, and yes, there could also be a slight chance he amounts to nothing, but if you feel good about your coaches (I hope they do), then he has to be an option if Burrow goes as expected, and Miami either never gets a chance at Tua, or don't feel it's worth the risk with his injury.

Trading up for Tua is way too risky, and for Burrow is very likely not worth it.
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Agree with everything except Burrow... kid is the whole package.
 
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BlueFin said:
Disagree with that thinking... you draft a QB every year until you land one...and then you keep drafting a QB every year at some point after for value!
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What does that response have to do with what he wrote?
 
BlueFin said:
As Daniel Jeremiah pointed out on “Movin the sticks”.... QB’s that are injury prone in college tend to be injury prone in the pro’s.... it’s about the odds and the risk!
Click to expand...

Did he point out that’s also how a kid like Mitch Trubisky gets taken ahead of a kid like Deshaun Watson?

I can’t really think of a good example recently that supports his theory other than Sam Bradford.
 
BlueFin said:
I’ve been thinking about this since Herbert’s MVP showing at the Senior Bowl and his stellar week of practices.

It’s not debatable Cristobal ran a very conservative “Ground & Pound” offense... in most experts eyes to a fault.

So is it hard to not consider that Herbert’s draft stock was damaged by this? By all accounts Herbert is prototype and the negatives on him were to at least some degree...negated by his showing in Mobile.

I do not want an injury prone college QB... he’s going to play more games against bigger faster players on average that hit harder.

Burrow and Tua both played in wide open offenses that let them shine in college... Herbert did not enjoy that luxury... he was handcuffed.

I am greatly cooling to Tua....and now see QB1-Burrow ...QB2-Herbert....QB3-Tua(because of injuries)....QB4-Love.

I say either move up for Burrow who I think is off the charts in intangibles...or sit tight at 5 and see how the draft unfolds.
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You are greatly cooling to Tua suggests you were were ever warm - rolls eyes

I look forward to Visiting with People at the Average Joe and Herbert threads in the General NFL forum after the draft

Put them alongside the Average Haskins and Lock threads

Reaching for average will certainly get the results hit your mark 8-8 - just great!!
 
Pachyderm_Wave said:
Did he point out that’s also how a kid like Mitch Trubisky gets taken ahead of a kid like Deshaun Watson?

I can’t really think of a good example recently that supports his theory other than Sam Bradford.
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Injury prone is a though animal to analyse, gathering the data and putting it in a structured way is something I dont feel wasting my time on. I did come across a couple of papers going over the subject...

The most optimistic one was barely over random and the most pessimistic figured that counting injuries from the previous 2 seasons, the difference between previously injured players versu non- injured players had only around a 13% more chance of not playing the full 16 games the following season.
 
BlueFin said:
As Daniel Jeremiah pointed out on “Movin the sticks”.... QB’s that are injury prone in college tend to be injury prone in the pro’s.... it’s about the odds and the risk!
Click to expand...

He is just as “injury prone” now as he was after the Super Bowl. Why would teams be souring on him now and not right away?
 
NBP81 said:
Injury prone is a though animal to analyse, gathering the data and putting it in a structured way is something I dont feel wasting my time on. I did come across a couple of papers going over the subject...

The most optimistic one was barely over random and the most pessimistic figured that counting injuries from the previous 2 seasons, the difference between previously injured players versu non- injured players had only around a 13% more chance of not playing the full 16 games the following season.
Click to expand...

That sounds about right to me.
 
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