Moving the goal posts? No worries.
If you’re asking whether I think a top offense (McD) or top defense (Flores) approach has a better chance of winning a SB first? Last 10 years is below with rankings by points scored or allowed.
Year Team Offense Rank / Defense Rank
2023 Chiefs 15 / 2
2022 Chiefs 1 / 16
2021 Rams 8 / 15
2020 Bucs 3 / 8
2019 Chiefs 5 / 7
2018 Pats 4 / 7
2017 Eagles 3 / 4
2016 Pats 3 / 1
2015 Broncos 19 / 4
2014 Pats 4 / 8
Average offense ranking is 6.5 and defense is 7.2. Philosophically, you are correct. Offense has the edge.
Problem is Flores had a season much closer to those averages than McD has. Flores went 10-6 In 2020 with the 11th ranked offense and 6th ranked defense. McD was 11 / 24 in 2022 and 2 / 22 in 2023.
I’m rooting on McD but he’s gotta get much better on defensive side of the ball to win a SB. To his credit, he’s churned DCs trying to get better.
Hopefully, McD rips off an amazing 2024 season and pulls away from Flores statically. I understand Flores is a boogeyman on these boards, so I’m done with this topic.