MERGED:Frerotte\the tides have turned

[Awsi Dooger]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

 

[flintsilver7]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

Consider this a placeholder. Your arrogance is noted, and I'll respond to this a bit later.

 

[Canadianfishfan]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

Your excellent post may be over the heads of some.

 

[Ohio Fanatic]

Sorry, but you're comparing the wrong guy to Ryan Leaf. I'll continue to default to yards per attempt to identify the true story, one the Feeley apologists are remarkably blind to.

Ryan Leaf finished with a lifetime yards per attempt of 5.6 in the NFL. Feeley is slightly less incompetent, at a lifetime 5.8. Gus Frerotte is among the rare QBs who have a lifetime number above the arbitrary but very significant cutoff point of 7.0. Frerotte is at 7.1 yards per attempt over his career. That signifies he consistently looks to the deep ball first and completes a reasonable percentage of them.

This coaching staff is no doubt aware of the numbers I just pointed out, and their significance. The correct decision has been made.

good point. I said it once. Feeley throws a beautiful seam pass, one of the best in the league, but other than that, his only pass is the dumpoff. Frerotte is not the savior, he's not even really good, but he mixes it up to different WR's (essential IMO), he throws it downfield better and more often than Feeley. Frerotte is slightly better than Feeley and he ABSOLUTELY has better pocket presence than Feeley, right now. Emphasize "right now" Feeley may develop into a better presence in the future, but I don't want to waste another year finding out. Compare Frerotte now and 8 years ago, I'm sure there's a big difference in pocket presence. Some of those overthrows wereon blitzes . If Feeley was in there, he wouldve taken the sack rather than make an attempt downfield. I'll take the incompletion over the sack anyday.

 

[DolfanCole]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

As a statistical analyst, then you must know that your sample size is not very large when you consider Feeley. So, while Feeley's number is lower, it's also based on a much smaller amount of attempts. If Feeley is given an offense other than a West Coast-style offense or a non-existent offense (see last year) for the remainder of his career or at least as long as Frerotte has been playing, isn't it plausible that his YPA would increase?

Now, I agree with you regarding the your comment on the coaches decisions. At least from a fan's standpoint, I can't see how it makes sense to keep starting Gus. But, I don't see everything that the coaches see or maybe there is something related to the stripper event. :D

 

[tmny99]

at least frerotte isnt scared to go down field. we cant win games by averaging 3 or 4 yrds a pass like feeley does. we have to be able to go deep and get in the endzone without wasting time. especially if were behind like we normally are.

Yeah but there's really no benefit to going deep for incompletions. I'd rather see our QBs dink and dunk the ball downfield and get points than "going down field" and then we send out Matt Turk. I am by no means a Feely supporter or a Gus supporter. I am a Dolfan, and I want the guy who gives us the best chance of winning to play. Let Feely play with the first team and see what he does. Gus has had his chance and he's failed miserably. For someone who "knows the offense so well" he hasn't shown that he's any better than a guy left over from Spielman's worst deal that is just learning the system. In fact, he looks worse.

 

[PhinBeck]

at least frerotte isnt scared to go down field. we cant win games by averaging 3 or 4 yrds a pass like feeley does. we have to be able to go deep and get in the endzone without wasting time. especially if were behind like we normally are.

Another grasp at straws post. Aj could throw deep like Gus as well, just find an open area deep where noone is and throw it there. Who gives a sh*t AJ is avg 1.4 yds less, wow 1.4 whole yds. Course teh diff is AJ is completing his while Gus is completing his to the turf.

Go ahead Gusketeers, keep coming up with lame excuses. AT least us "Lovers" "excuses" were plausible.

 

[t47c]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

Frerotte was given the starting job when he signed. That's why he didn't return to back-up Culpepper or sign with Denver to back up Plummer

 

[PHINZONER]

Both are bad right now! BOTH, BOTH, BOTH, BOTH, BOTH, BOTH!!!!!!!!!!!

Neither guy that has started has done worth a highshool gig as a starter. That is why Saban is giving Gus the job to get in sync w/ the wrs. He has shown more in practice than AJ. CC,McMike,D Bo,Booker and other have raved about Gus in practice. His leadership. They know what can be done w/ him. I take their 2cents over anyone on here. Give him a full game or two in regular season and if he does not show promise, bench rider he is!

After all, if Nick gave Feeley the job by default, what would Feeley do to show he needs to improve. He obviously did not do it this offseason. He is providing competition for the job, that is the best way to make a player that wants to start, work as hard as possible. ESPN had Schlereth on today and he was talking about looking over your shoulder and how it made you work to be the absolute best you can be. How not having a guarantee that a job was yours makes you always work to improve.

Do not give Feeley squat. MAKE HIM EARN IT! If he wants it he could have it!!! Guarantee. I am not to sure if Feeley missed holding the clipboard rather than getting beat like a pinyata(spelling?)

 

[PhinBeck]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

Oh a Math geek can generate ratios off a computer, yep your teh qb expert I bow down to your superiority LMAO. Dont condescend to me. 1.4 is not a huge diff in attempt. Avg per completion is diff but not in attempt. Considering per NFL.COM stats Gusketeer YPA is 5.19 not your 7.1 so I will be NFL stat geeks over a he said so stat geek.

What the fuk does any of that have to do with Gussy not being able to hit the broad side of a barn? Go ahead and try your super inteligent word posts, they still need substance to be important, now they are just impotent.

And whatever you want to say 3 and out is 3 and out no matter what you mathmatical hypothesis says. Numerous overthrows and inaccuracies are the facts, not your stats. Being able to calculate stats is one thing, interpreting them OBVIOUSLY in your case is altogether diff.

I love when people say that we dont understand things when in fact they have no better knowledge of teh subject. Hypocrisy lives strong.

 

[kbeath]

Sorry, but you're comparing the wrong guy to Ryan Leaf. I'll continue to default to yards per attempt to identify the true story, one the Feeley apologists are remarkably blind to.

Ryan Leaf finished with a lifetime yards per attempt of 5.6 in the NFL. Feeley is slightly less incompetent, at a lifetime 5.8. Gus Frerotte is among the rare QBs who have a lifetime number above the arbitrary but very significant cutoff point of 7.0. Frerotte is at 7.1 yards per attempt over his career. That signifies he consistently looks to the deep ball first and completes a reasonable percentage of them.

This coaching staff is no doubt aware of the numbers I just pointed out, and their significance. The correct decision has been made.

You dont think this has anything to do with throwing Moss the ball for some of those passes. Moss will up your numbers no matter if you are Randell cunningham

 

[DolfanCole]

Oh a Math geek can generate ratios off a computer, yep your teh qb expert I bow down to your superiority LMAO. Dont condescend to me. 1.4 is not a huge diff in attempt. Avg per completion is diff but not in attempt. Considering per NFL.COM stats Gusketeer YPA is 5.19 not your 7.1 so I will be NFL stat geeks over a he said so stat geek.

What the fuk does any of that have to do with Gussy not being able to hit the broad side of a barn? Go ahead and try your super inteligent word posts, they still need substance to be important, now they are just impotent.

And whatever you want to say 3 and out is 3 and out no matter what you mathmatical hypothesis says. Numerous overthrows and inaccuracies are the facts, not your stats. Being able to calculate stats is one thing, interpreting them OBVIOUSLY in your case is altogether diff.

I love when people say that we dont understand things when in fact they have no better knowledge of teh subject. Hypocrisy lives strong.

I believe that your 5.19 is for this year/preseason. NFL.com has 7.05 (or 7.1 rounded) for his career.

 

[themole]

The guy has completed 44.5% of his passes. There are only so many ways to marginalize things. Sure, he can throw the "deep ball." So could Ryan Leaf.

You are right. He can throw the "deep ball", so can I :evil: . What Gus needs to figure out is how to get the ball and the reciever to the same spot at the same time. These ten yard overthrows everytime, tells me, he doesn't know where his reciever is in the grand scheme of the route.

 

[flintsilver7]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

First, let me start by saying my professional and academic credentials are nobody's business on this forum unless I choose to make it their business. That said, I am extremely good with numbers, and I'm also a sabermetrician on the side. So despite your best attempts at starting with "I'm better than you," I'll take my chances.

The mention to Frerotte's earlier numbers are important. Brian Griese had a YPA of 8.0 the last year Frerotte was over 7.0 YPA. You can draw two conclusions from this: First, that Brian Griese is better than Gus Frerotte, and second, that Denver's offensive system allowed two otherwise average quarterbacks to post impressive numbers. (Nobody pines for Brian Griese at the moment, if you didn't notice. He did, in fact, fail to win the job here.) Frerotte's career yards per attempt has been rounded up - as I've done this myself in the past, I can recognize an attempt to twist the numbers pretty quickly. As somebody else pointed out, Frerotte may have put up what look like decent numbers on other teams, but the other guys - none of them noteworthy except Trent Green - either kept pace with him or surpassed him. If you can't beat Heath Shuler by much, you might as well give up.

As somebody else pointed out, if you're a statistical analyst, you would probably have to admit that your confidence interval on Feeley's production is extremely low. This is for two reasons - one, the Dolphins last year led one of the weakest offensive lines in football history, and two, the sample size is woefully inadequate. You seem to be suggesting that A.J. Feeley has established a baseline career YPA, which is absurd and you know it. A casual glance at his Philadelphia numbers should show you that. Also, you should know that last year's season could be deemed a statistical outlier. Jay Fiedler had a career-worst YPA last season, as I've already pointed out, so the rest of Miami's team has to take some blame.

It's not completion percentage during "a bunch of exhibition games," by the way. Frerotte's career completion percentage, as you might understand, is pretty bad. If you take Frerotte's stats with "the Miami Factor," as we seem to have developed, they get even worse. So much, in fact, that they are worse than Feeley. How can this be, you ask? Well, Feeley was much better when he had a real offensive line. Before coming here, he had a career YPA of 6.87. (I don't necessarily consider that a good sample size.) Playing in Miami last year had a very real detrimental effect on both Fiedler and Feeley. I'll say this again - consider the effect on Frerotte, and he gets worse. His stellar 59.7 rating should probably show you at least some of that.

Also, since you're such a mathematical wizard, please show me how throwing long incompletions is beneficial to the offense.

 

[SOLAT78]

If any of you think that AJ is better than Gus, just look back at AJ td/int ratio. AJ threw more TD's for the other team then ours. Gus is the starter, he knows the offence and has the stronger arm. A few of Gus passes were overthrown but look at how many balls were dropped. No excuse for a WR to drop the ball, especially when it hits your hands. No matter what you all think, AJ will not start over Gus, unless he gets injuried. AJ has too much on his mind like looking good for the cameras. Another Rob Johnson.