MERGED:Frerotte\the tides have turned

[flintsilver7]

I'm truly impressed, you obviously are very good on statistical analysis. Your point about the "Miami factor" is right on. If we were the Broncos trying to decide who we wanted to trade for from Miami Gus might be the answer. But in fact, we are the team that has to deal with the "Miami factor" right here, right now. So far (in a small sampling) AJ is doing a better job of dealing with our situation at this point in time which is ALL that matters. Thanks for the enjoyable read, well done.

Hey, thanks. I didn't know anybody would actually read all that. I tend to write books instead of simple posts.

 

[DolfanCole]

Yes I was referring to this preseason. I already am aware of his past. I could care less about his YPA over his career since it is meaningless as he had many other problems for which he was allowed to walk from each of those teams.

My point is this, you can crunch the numbers any way you wish, I could care less. Yes 1.4 is not alot when you factor in his completion %, his bad overthrows, underthrows and throwing behind receivers that attribute his horrid completion %. Yes AJ is not going as deep as I would want, but a 5 yd completion is better than a 10 yd overthrow. Wow it is really impressive he threw it 30 yds, it would be more impressive if he actually completed them. If Saban names him teh starter, I wont root against him and would hope he starts hitting those passes. If devlops some accuracy, he would be a decent qb. Over his whole career, I havent seeen it yet with any consistency.

Yep, just confirming. :D

 

[DolfanCole]

...I was going to post but I failed algebra. Can we at least agree that Feeley deserves to start against Atlanta? Jesus, it is almost like we are not rooting for the same team anymore. Personaly, I think Feeley should start for the following reasons.

-Youth; while the possibility is slim, it is possible that Feeley could be a decent quarterback for us for a few years to come. Ferotte is quite a bit older and his upside is zero. Lets face it, this is the best we have, why not know for sure that our second round pick was wasted before we give up hope and start Gus Ferotte, whom durring his career rarely showed that he could be an effective starter.

-Overall performance durring the preseason; Feeley had a tough start against Chicago and against Jacksonville I think Feeley and Ferotte played about even. In the past two games against Pitt and Tampa Bay, Feeley simply out played Ferotte, no two ways about it. Feeleys stats were better, yes, but he also showed to be far more acurate on both short passes and dumpoffs, as well as longer range passes. Against Tampa Bay he also seemed to handle the blitz better and make the defense pay for their mistakes more often than Gus did.

I am sure there is some mathematical equasion that blows my opinion out of the water but for now this seems reasonable. Now that I got that out of the way, I am not posting in any more of these threads until after the Atlanta game. Thank you very much

I didn't fail Algebra, Calculus, Linear Algebra, Differential Equations ... but, somehow your post makes a lot of sense. :hmmm:

 

[PhinBeck]

I just recently saw the game and that pass Gus threw from the end zone to a WR between two defenders was magnificent.Yes he had a few overthrown passes but I thought he outplayed AJ who had more completions but still shows little touch on the ball and was still thowing with a low trajectory and throwing short balls into the ground.

The pass Gus apparently threw to no one was obviously a miscommunication with the WR.It appears he was throwing to a spot.

BTW I am not a Guskateer .I am a Waffleteer (Those of us who are fence straddlers who wish one of them can be a decent starter but we dont care which one)

Saying Gus played better is the definition of a Gusketeer. Obviously this, obviously that, anything but obviously being Gus being inaccurate or anything but admitting teh truth. Gus outplayed AJ, I have heard it all now. You wanting that doesnt make it so. Yes AJ played the second team, but he reacted well to pressure and made plays. Is he still learning and have a way to go? Yes, but forget stats, his passes were accurate, Gus werent. That is BS excuses that you bashed when the same thing was said in Ajs defense on some plays last year. I guess we see what we choose to see.

 

[3P]

I love it when I'm being lectured on yards per attempt, when my job is sports statistical analysis for Nevada sportsbooks and I've analyzed YPPA since 1987.

One guy here tried to denounce a 1.5 yard difference per attempt as insignificant. Another questioned the 7.0 number as a correct guideline. Someone else started listing QBs who were above 6.0 with one team in a particular year, as if somehow the difference between 6.0 and 7.0 was insignificant. Another guy scolded me for rounding Frerotte's number by .05, since he had no ammo to combat the very real massive gap between the two lifetime numbers.

Instead of making insulting remarks, very well earned BTW, I'll simply concede you guys have no background in the matter, very understandable since as I've posted many times the mainstream media does a hopless job of identifying and publicizing the most relevant football stats.

But ask yourself this: if it's true Frerotte has looked innacurate and unimpressive this preseason while Feeley has "taken charge" including a 16 for 20 game, then what masochistic rationale does the coaching staff have for starting Gus? Did he bribe them? He has incriminating evidence regarding behavior at that stripper event? Saban wants to lock up a top pick and thinks Frerotte is the 2-14 ticket?

Or have they looked at career stats and practice tendencies and noticed something very evident, that one guy challenges downfield and the other does not, regardless of trivia like completion perentage during a handful of exhibition games? Mathematics and sample size is not a strength around here either, not when posters are embracing a couple dozen pass attempts here and there vs. uneven foes and claiming it's more indicative than lifetime performance.

Oh goodie... we're playing stats!

I get to be the thimble!

*Warning, I have no professional training in the area of statistical computation... but I do play one on Internet messageboards*

You're giving AJ a hefty sample size of 3 years (that he's thrown a pass) and a whopping 287 attempts, or just about 3/4 years worth of attempts for a full time starter.

Lets limit Gus to the same sample size just for fairness, shall we?

Feeley averaged 5.8 over his first three years, Gus averaged 6.7 Y/A over his first 3 years. What can we tell from this? Well, for one thing they played in two completely different systems (Feeley played in a WCO that focused on short accurate throws) The other thing is shows? 3 years is far too short a time to get an accurate feel for the various statistical outliers (something even a pedestrian statitician such as myself is aware of) that greatly affect such a small sample size. One such example is the previously mentioned "Miami Factor" which saw Feeley go from a 8.385 average YPA in Philly to a 5.32 in Miami's 2004 rock-em-sock-em-high-flying vaunted offense.

Ok, Ok... that was all pretty much so that I could re-aquaint myself with how to use this calculator thingie.

Now for the real life stuff that is an actual fair comparison. Now in order to do this, we've got to cut down on the sample size even more... so all it really shows is that Feeley has yet to play long enough in the NFL to get an accurate statistical read on him... but I digress.

Lets do something shocking, and quite amazing. Lets compare the two in the same system, with the same OC calling the plays, with the same personel around them, on the same team. Can I have a drumroll please?

AJ's 2005 Pre-season YPA average as of last game? 5.2
Gus' 2005 Pre-season YPA average as of last game? 5.2

Holy mediocre quarterback, Batman!

If Gus is so superior to AJ, has the advantage of already knowing the system, and deserves to start due to all his down-field attempts, why do the both suck?

The logical conclusion? Start AJ due to the fact that he is younger and has a larger potential for improvement. I don't have the time to do the statistical work required, but I'd be interested to see what the chances of a 35 year old QB improving on his career numbers is compared to that of a 27 year old QB.

Why isn't AJ starting? Well, I think AJ was at a disadvantage due to Gus' familiarity with Linehan. In a tie such as this, Gus wins by default.

I don't call myself an AJ hugger, or whatever else you want to call someone who wants him to start. What I do know, however, is that I know Gus isn't the answer. I'm pretty sure AJ isn't the answer (I was all for drafting a QB this past draft if the right guy was available at the right pick), but as sure as I am of AJ not being the guy... I know that there is that slight chance, however small, that he will show that last year was a fluke caused by extremely poor coaching, extremely poor luck, and even more extremely poor line play.

 

[Wildbill3]

Sorry, but you're comparing the wrong guy to Ryan Leaf. I'll continue to default to yards per attempt to identify the true story, one the Feeley apologists are remarkably blind to.

Ryan Leaf finished with a lifetime yards per attempt of 5.6 in the NFL. Feeley is slightly less incompetent, at a lifetime 5.8. Gus Frerotte is among the rare QBs who have a lifetime number above the arbitrary but very significant cutoff point of 7.0. Frerotte is at 7.1 yards per attempt over his career. That signifies he consistently looks to the deep ball first and completes a reasonable percentage of them.

This coaching staff is no doubt aware of the numbers I just pointed out, and their significance. The correct decision has been made.

102 turnovers compaired to 82 touchdowns, care to paint a rainbow over those stats concerning Gus?

 

[CrunchTime]

Saying Gus played better is the definition of a Gusketeer. Obviously this, obviously that, anything but obviously being Gus being inaccurate or anything but admitting teh truth. Gus outplayed AJ, I have heard it all now. You wanting that doesnt make it so. Yes AJ played the second team, but he reacted well to pressure and made plays. Is he still learning and have a way to go? Yes, but forget stats, his passes were accurate, Gus werent. That is BS excuses that you bashed when the same thing was said in Ajs defense on some plays last year. I guess we see what we choose to see.

I am not impressed with either one but if I had to start a season tommorow I would do it with Gus.

BTW I was supporting AJ all through last year.He has not made enough improvement IMO but I still have hope.

 

[PhinBeck]

Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
Sorry, but you're comparing the wrong guy to Ryan Leaf. I'll continue to default to yards per attempt to identify the true story, one the Feeley apologists are remarkably blind to.

Ryan Leaf finished with a lifetime yards per attempt of 5.6 in the NFL. Feeley is slightly less incompetent, at a lifetime 5.8. Gus Frerotte is among the rare QBs who have a lifetime number above the arbitrary but very significant cutoff point of 7.0. Frerotte is at 7.1 yards per attempt over his career. That signifies he consistently looks to the deep ball first and completes a reasonable percentage of them.

This coaching staff is no doubt aware of the numbers I just pointed out, and their significance. The correct decision has been made.

What does yard per attempt mean? It doesnt mean yards per attempt? I thought it was a simple formula? Yards divided by attempts? For qb rating isnt it yards/attempt -3 divided by 4? What the fuk does that stat mean anyway? Considering he only gets yards for completed passes, what does it mean? It is an avg, plain and simple. One stat alone does not paint a picture and teh whole stats only still tell part of teh story. Stats can be used to a greater extent when measuring career stats at the end of the career and only when using every stat in conjunction with the other. Gus may have a decent YPA but a sh*tty completion percentage and td to int ratio what do you have? A qb that throws deeper balls but with only limited success and more failures than successes. Yes AJs career stats are noit good, but the data is very limited in that he hasnt had much of an opportunity yet, unlike Gus that has had 3 chances with three dif teams to start over a 12 year career. AJ may not have it, but it is less certain than that for Gus. If you want to rely solely on stats.

 

[PhinBeck]

I am not impressed with either one but if I had to start a season tommorow I would do it with Gus.

BTW I was supporting AJ all through last year.He has not made enough improvement IMO but I still have hope.

I am not disputing that there may be an argument for starting Gus, I can see a reason for it, namely Saban doesnt feel AJ is ready.

I do dispute the performances in preseason favor Gus, tho. What I think is one determining factor is there is less risk with Gus that early struggles will effect Gus as much as it potentially could with AJ, which is one reason I think Saban wants Gus to take the reigns and run with them. I think if you read between the lines, he sees some potential with AJ but feels he has to be handled correctly. I think he sees that it will be a slow process in the beginning and doesnt want to hurt AJs confidence. By letting the vet w/ experience play early while AJ sits and learns and gets more confidence by getting more comfortable in teh system, he allows the o-line to settle itself, get Ronnie Acclimated and Ricky back from suspension and starts some cohesion, he can mitigate teh circumstances for which AJ has to face.

On a side note Shefter said tonite on NFL TA that tomorrow will be inetresting in that it will tell whether Saban is content with teh qbs on our roster by whether he puts in a waiver claim on Rohan Davey. I thought that was interesting.

 

[Dolphin North]

I think they both are about the same, that being said, you have to let AJ prove he can play or not. If not, next year we go get a new QB. Davey won't be the savoir, if we sign him.

I agree. Yet again I agree.

 

[callaway1234]

I think they both are about the same, that being said, you have to let AJ prove he can play or not. If not, next year we go get a new QB.

I think this is a summary of what I think. Do you Gus supporters realize that this will be Gus' 12th year in the league? Now if he was Dan Marino talent... I just think Saban needs to find out (in HIS system) if Feeley can be a successful starter. If not, QB in the first round for us.

 

[paskerbrandon]

I think this is a summary of what I think. Do you Gus supporters realize that this will be Gus' 12th year in the league? Now if he was Dan Marino talent... I just think Saban needs to find out (in HIS system) if Feeley can be a successful starter. If not, QB in the first round for us.

Exactly Gus is 34, 34! Thats old for a career backup QB im sorry. I would rather have a young QB at 28 like Feeley in this year. If he has a good year and leads us to an even record or even to the payoffs we will at least know we could wait a year or 2 to draft another QB.

 

[finfan54]

In the preseason, support was split Feeley-Frerotte. Then after a preseason game or two everyone jumped on the Frerotte bandwagon (not me). After his two bad games in a row people want to see what Feeley can offer us. I say start Feeley the last preseason game, if he does well make him our starter. Frerotte is not our QB of the future; Feeley might not be either but we need to see what he can do, if he doesn't fare well, a QB in the first round we will draft. Anyone agree?

i already know what Feeley can offer. a lot of short passes and then an INT when his *** gets run over when he doesnt get rid of the ball fast enough and far away from a defender. Im tellin ya, Frerrote gives us the best chance to win because the gameplanned stuff was great, the unplanned stuff not so great, not all his fault. But when we plan for an entire game, it will be different as time goes on. Gus' first job is to not give the other teams 6 points. And he has done that superbly minus one jailbreak by Pitt. If teams jailbreak Feeley, he will be shattered and screw up. He holds on to the ball too long.

 

[flintsilver7]

Love it.

Hey, where's the "You just might be a Guskateer if..." post?

 

[adamprez2003]

Love it.

Hey, where's the "You just might be a Guskateer if..." post?

decide to use it in a thread