Metrics are for....

[Shouright]

Why was YPA not a predictor of how Tom Brady would be? Or how was Marinos second year YPA almost 2 yards above his lifetime average. Also of course Drew Brees second season YPA was a great predictor of future success.

Because they were exceptions to the rule.

However, I understand that when one desperately wants to believe something, then exceptions to the rule, rather the rule itself, can be framed as representing the greater probability.

What do they say? A drowning man will clutch at a straw?

 

[dlockz]

Because they were exceptions to the rule.

However, I understand that when one desperately wants to believe something, then exceptions to the rule, rather the rule itself, can be framed as representing the greater probability.

What do they say? A drowning man will clutch at a straw?

So is Andrew Luck an exception? There are way too many instances to just say its an exception

Aaron Rodgers second year as starter is quite different from where he went. People seem to still think Eli Manning is pretty good although his YPA was low early on.
The problem is you are trying to create a rule where there is none. You want to look at second year YPA because third year might no suit your argument. You want to talk about the players it applies to but not the ones it doesn't. This is not reaching at a straw on anyone's part this is showing you there are quite a few qb's that don't fit your preconceived profile

Matthew Stafford his second year is an aberration compared to rest of season you can go on and on

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

So is Andrew Luck an exception?

They won't answer. I've tried many times. IMO, the exception is the QB that starts his career with a high YPA and maintains that throughout their careers. You'll never get the Angry Deniers to admit it though.

Roethlisberger's YPA has dropped for 4 consecutive years. Is he done?

 

[Shouright]

So is Andrew Luck an exception? There are way too many instances to just say its an exception

Aaron Rodgers second year as starter is quite different from where he went. People seem to still think Eli Manning is pretty good although his YPA was low early on.
The problem is you are trying to create a rule where there is none. You want to look at second year YPA because third year might no suit your argument. You want to talk about the players it applies to but not the ones it doesn't. This is not reaching at a straw on anyone's part this is showing you there are quite a few qb's that don't fit your preconceived profile

Matthew Stafford his second year is an aberration compared to rest of season you can go on and on

I'm willing to give a great deal of thoughtful consideration to any study of the predictive validity of the YPAs of second-year quarterbacks.

 

[dlockz]

I'm willing to give a great deal of thoughtful consideration to any study of the predictive validity of the YPAs of second-year quarterbacks.

That makes one of us. I consider it a fairly useless statistic because so many variables cause YPA. Lets just have a stat that totally ignores what a receiver does after catch since that skews stats.
It doesn't take into account turnovers or what kind of offense they are running.

 

[Shouright]

That makes one of us. I consider it a fairly useless statistic because so many variables cause YPA. Lets just have a stat that totally ignores what a receiver does after catch since that skews stats.
It doesn't take into account turnovers or what kind of offense they are running.

And yet across all of the following teams, seasons, coaches, offensive systems, surrounding casts, yards after catches, strengths of schedules, etc., we see the following correlation between net YPA and individual QBs' ability, for nearly the last 20 years of play in the NFL (since the salary cap was instituted):

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Of course if you don't personally perceive that correlation, then I'm happy to agree to disagree on that particular point. :)

 

[hoops]

there is no reason that cam wake can't give us 2 more years of double digit sack production...the only reason he didnt do more this year was cause he got a knee injury and took a while to get back to preinjury form...

miamis getting thei moneys worth out of that contract there should be no concerns there...now trading wake when dion jordan hasn't shown he can finish or developed as an edge rusher at all at this stage would be about as dumb a move as we could make...

olivier vernon double digit sack seasons to me look like they will be few and far between...nothing against him but i see more an 8 sack guy player there so i also wouldn't depend on him being the bell cow for us every year...he's got some talents solid hips real strength in his hands and can disengage from a tackle and not just get washed out but he doesn't show elite pass rush skills either...i would expect next year his production to fall off somewhat and i would hope that dion jordan can fill the gaps and make a serious leap...

 

[Rev Kev]

there is no reason that cam wake can't give us 2 more years of double digit sack production...the only reason he didnt do more this year was cause he got a knee injury and took a while to get back to preinjury form...

miamis getting thei moneys worth out of that contract there should be no concerns there...now trading wake when dion jordan hasn't shown he can finish or developed as an edge rusher at all at this stage would be about as dumb a move as we could make...

olivier vernon double digit sack seasons to me look like they will be few and far between...nothing against him but i see more an 8 sack guy player there so i also wouldn't depend on him being the bell cow for us every year...he's got some talents solid hips real strength in his hands and can disengage from a tackle and not just get washed out but he doesn't show elite pass rush skills either...i would expect next year his production to fall off somewhat and i would hope that dion jordan can fill the gaps and make a serious leap...

Vernon disappeared in the last two games it was obvious that Cam had extra attention and Vernon should step up there

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

And yet across all of the following teams, seasons, coaches, offensive systems, surrounding casts, yards after catches, strengths of schedules, etc., we see the following correlation between net YPA and individual QBs' ability, for nearly the last 20 years of play in the NFL (since the salary cap was instituted):

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Of course if you don't personally perceive that correlation, then I'm happy to agree to disagree on that particular point. :)

Perceive a correlation? :lol2:

 

[hoops]

Vernon disappeared in the last two games it was obvious that Cam had extra attention and Vernon should step up there

that's the thing about vernon...you are gonna get periods of games at times where he does nothing...at least thats what i see...i like him but i think long term the real upside play at de has to be dion jordan...problem is im not sure i see anything right now that says it's coming with him either...next years preseason watch is gonna be very interesting with that kid for me...

miamis best pass rush look to me next year will be wake odrick vernon jordan...or atleast thats what im hoping for...vernon kicked inside to work guards in the nickle passing downs...i have to give ck credit for saying he thought that was a good idea before this last season and after seeing it i'm with it...i think vernons best pass rush work will come when kicked inside so he can work over guards with his lateral quickness and hand strength

i doubt starks comes back because they will want to get jordan more run at end and they have a kick inside pass rush option in vernon in their possession and currently cheap

 

[roy_miami]

Vernon disappeared in the last two games it was obvious that Cam had extra attention and Vernon should step up there

I might be wrong but I think when we play athletic QBs Vernon is tasked with making sure they don't escape the pocket first and foremost.

 

[hoops]

I might be wrong but I think when we play athletic QBs Vernon is tasked with making sure they don't escape the pocket first and foremost.

nobody played geno smith like that...i can tell ya that...we were not prepared for the qbs legs at all in that game even though they had shown it in weeks prior a plenty...the dc took a dump on us in the jets game...coyle

 

[Shouright]

Perceive a correlation?

You don't?

 

[dlockz]

And yet across all of the following teams, seasons, coaches, offensive systems, surrounding casts, yards after catches, strengths of schedules, etc., we see the following correlation between net YPA and individual QBs' ability, for nearly the last 20 years of play in the NFL (since the salary cap was instituted):

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Of course if you don't personally perceive that correlation, then I'm happy to agree to disagree on that particular point. :)

I see that there are quite a few exceptions to your second year YPA rule on that list. In the end most qb;s that are successful will probably have good ypas because successful qbs throw a lot of tds which helps ypa but judging a second year qb on this metric is pretty useless in my opinion. Most qbs have not reached their peak by their second season.

 

[Rev Kev]

that's the thing about vernon...you are gonna get periods of games at times where he does nothing...at least thats what i see...i like him but i think long term the real upside play at de has to be dion jordan...problem is im not sure i see anything right now that says it's coming with him either...next years preseason watch is gonna be very interesting with that kid for me...

miamis best pass rush look to me next year will be wake odrick vernon jordan...or atleast thats what im hoping for...vernon kicked inside to work guards in the nickle passing downs...i have to give ck credit for saying he thought that was a good idea before this last season and after seeing it i'm with it...

i doubt starks comes back because they will want to get jordan more run at end and they have a kick inside pass rush option in vernon in their possession and currently cheap

Yes I prefer the Dline to be consistent, I think Vernon an enigma, and people cannot understand how much strength you lose after that kind of surgery -> the body may look better than advertsied. I have had endured that kind of surgery and it is a slow process rebuilding tissue, and then trusting that your shoulder is gonna hold up. Then I believe they set him bcak by rushing him too early.

I for one don't believe that JI drafted Jordan to be counted on this past year, he got hurt in preseason anyway, when the wheels fell off after the stellar start of the season, he proabably wished he didn't roll the dice on him and took a LT.

I think Jordans will have his strength back, but I think his game will be his speed and athleticism -> he was running from sideline to sideline 40 yards down the field in the limited action he saw.

---------- Post added at 09:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:09 AM ----------

I might be wrong but I think when we play athletic QBs Vernon is tasked with making sure they don't escape the pocket first and foremost.

I think he failed against Geno LOL