Metrics On Tua From Barry Jackson

[phinsforlife]

For his career, when trailing in a one-possession game with under five minutes remaining, Tagovailoa is 53 of 89 (59.6 percent) for 601 yards (6.8 yards per attempt) with six touchdowns, four interceptions and a passer rating of 83.6. This season, he was 14 for 25 for 134 yards, with one TD and one INT, in those situations. That’s a poor 64.4 passer rating. And Miami was 2-3 in those games involving the NFL’s equivalent of “clutch time” in the NBA.

And there’s this: In the fourth quarter this season, Tagovailoa’s 75.9 passer rating was 18th among starters who played in at least 10 games; San Francisco’s Brock Purdy was at 123.8 and Buffalo’s Josh Allen was at 104.0.

When facing quarterback pressure, Tagovailoa had a dismal 57.5 passer rating; only Zach Wilson, Bryce Young and Mac Jones were worse among qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. Tagovailoa completed only 46 of 113 passes when pressured (40.7 percent) with two touchdowns and two interception

On the flip side, Tagovailoa was exceptional with a clean pocket: His 112.5 passer rating when he was well protected was third best in the league, behind only Purdy (125.4) and Detroit’s Jared Goff (114.5). But his 12 interceptions when kept clean also led the league.

Tagovailoa remained well above average on deep ball accuracy, or specifically, passes that traveled at least 20 air yards. Among quarterbacks that threw at least 40 such passes, Tagovailoa completed the fourth-highest percentage of them (50.8), behind only Purdy (63.8), Houston’s CJ Stroud (56.1) and the Rams’ Matt Stafford (51.9). That’s according to PFF. Tagovailoa’s seven interceptions on such plays were third most, behind Allen’s nine and Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts’ eight.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article284365594.html#storylink=cpy

 

[powerball1373]

Oh look another lazy thread from Tua's Tushboi.

At least add a LITTLE bit of your own thoughts rather than just copy pasting lmao. Unless you're Barry Jackson, which would be kinda funny and sad.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Tua's decline in the clutch this year is troubling. I'm not sure what to attribute that to?

I think it's fair to say that Miami was dealing with more injuries on the offensive line than most teams. How many games were at least two starting offensive linemen missing due to injuries?

Yet, there were times when Tua threw low percentage passes (double covered deep etc.) when receivers were open for smaller gains.

So, it's not all on the offensive line.

 

[JoeFromManyPlaces]

Super duper. When Tua can win in big games and in the playoffs, I will care.

 

[TheMageGandalf]

Tua's decline in the clutch this year is troubling. I'm not sure what to attribute that to?

I think it's fair to say that Miami was dealing with more injuries on the offensive line than most teams. How many games were at least two starting offensive linemen missing due to injuries?

Yet, there were times when Tua threw low percentage passes (double covered deep etc.) when receivers were open for smaller gains.

So, it's not all on the offensive line.

I think just blaming the oline, looking at the huge stats and saying it'll be fine would be a huge mistake.

He needs to sit down with McD, look over the whole season, and work on fixes. I'm sure this is going to be done anyway, but I hope the mentality is there that there were issues in his game that popped up at bad times...and they need to be addressed whole heartedly.

In the time he's been here he doesn't just sit back during the offseason so I expect him to improve.

 

[circumstances]

Tushboi.

 

[RMLogic]

Tua isnt good when pressured.
Who out there on the planet doesn't know this.
He is short. He cant scramble. He is slow. Who doesn't know this.
For him to succeed the Fins have to have an elite OLine that can give him a clean pocket.
The FO has to get better at fixing the Oline or they will lose all the big games again next year.

 

[marino13zach54]

You don't need numbers. If you were watching, you saw a QB who did not rise to the occasion/shrank when it mattered most.

You also don't need to have a high football IQ to understand that in order to help the league leading passer & pro bowler help us, in order to put him in the optimal position for his success thus, ours; is to get him a solid OFFENSIVE LINE.

Analytics & stats- all numbers of all kinds- all the bull$hit mathematics, you can keep that sh;t, bro.

This is a game of ignorant fools; savage, mindless, beasts willing to split their own head to concave yours.

Lawrence Taylor once confessed in an interview that when he was confused about what to do on defense, he'd simply blitz the QB. Years later- HOFer.

K.I.S.S. = K.eep I.t S.imple S.tupid

Help Tua; helps Hill & Waddle, helps Achane, helps long drives, helps the defense, domino effect- GET A MOTHERF@CKIN OFFENSIVE LINE ALREADY!

 

[circumstances]

Tua isnt good when pressured.
Who out there on the planet doesn't know this.
He is short. He cant scramble. He is slow. Who doesn't know this.
For him to succeed the Fins have to have an elite OLine that can give him a clean pocket.
The FO has to get better at fixing the Oline or they will lose all the big games again next year.

He can improve his foot speed and his scrambling. And when to run.

This season was a weird reaction to the concussions of last year (re: bulking up and scrambling).

The offense can be improved by having better available hot reads, outlet passes, quick hitters, etc. to him, if there's quick pressure.

If you think what you've seen of Tua is the best you'll ever see, you don't know him.

He will work to master whatever facet of his game is holding him back.

 

[Mello Yello]

...when trailing in a one-possession game with under five minutes...passer rating of 83.6.

We need context to interpret this statistic. It might be that 83.6 is good or bad. We don't know. When we create these unique conditions, we must do it for everyone to supply context. We need to know where Tua ranks against other QBs in such moments.

And there’s this: In the fourth quarter this season, Tagovailoa’s 75.9 passer rating was 18th among starters who played in at least 10 games; San Francisco’s Brock Purdy was at 123.8 and Buffalo’s Josh Allen was at 104.0.

The Dolphins offense and its downward trend in EPA (by quarter) has already been put out there. It's not clear exactly how this is Tua's fault exactly and what he should be doing that he isn't. It's like saying, "be more successful." We all want it but the challenge for Miami is figuring out what's causing it.

When facing quarterback pressure, Tagovailoa had a dismal 57.5 passer rating.

This isn't a good stat for Tua but it's also a reflection of the offense which has been broken down by numerous people across the internet. The offense rarely seemed to provide Tua with outlets/hots. Why those weren't there is a huge question. Is the offense just poorly designed? Are the wrong plays being run because Tua's pressed for time at the LOS and can't audible? Is Tua failing to read the defense appropriately?

It's fair to be disappointed but it's not clear who to be frustrated with and whether it's reasonable to expect improvement next season.

On the flip side, Tagovailoa was exceptional with a clean pocket: His 112.5 passer rating when he was well protected was third best in the league, behind only Purdy (125.4) and Detroit’s Jared Goff (114.5). But his 12 interceptions when kept clean also led the league.

I think this sort of thing could've been traced all the way back to Alabama. We always projected him as a successful passer if the conditions were favorable. This is part of my whole "he is who we thought he was" thing.

But his 12 interceptions when kept clean also led the league. Tagovailoa’s seven interceptions on such plays were third most, behind Allen’s nine and Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts’ eight.

Volumetric stats are meaningless. The only thing that matters with interceptions is the rate at which you get them (Int%).

Here's Tua by year:


Tua ranked #10 and #20 in his two years under Flores. He's now ranked #13 and #26 in his two seasons under McDaniel.

So typically a little below average in this category. Does that reflect his age and lack of experience? Unfortunately, I would say no. Herbert has always ranked above Tua and we see plenty of instances of other young QBs like Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence being near the top of the rankings at times. Tua really hasn't ever had a "good" year in this department.

So it begs a bigger question--is Tua just too aggressive? Yeah, probably. He takes a lot of shots downfield and often throws dangerous passes that are lucky not be picked off. I think this is part of Tua's nature and probably something he's always going to struggle with. I don't think you get the big plays to Hill and Waddle without a QB who's always looking to take those chances throwing into the secondary. In some sense he's the opposite of what we had with Tannehill, who was a QB who'd pat the ball, take sacks and at his best check it down.

It's also reasonable to point out that Drew Brees really didn't get "good" at avoiding interceptions (Int% < 2.0) until the end of his career. In his first decade, Brees had a few seasons ranking in the Top-10 in Int% but he also had many seasons in-between where he was ranked as low as 27th. He was very up and down based on the year and on average had just about the same Int%'s as Tua does now:

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I think just blaming the oline, looking at the huge stats and saying it'll be fine would be a huge mistake.

He needs to sit down with McD, look over the whole season, and work on fixes. I'm sure this is going to be done anyway, but I hope the mentality is there that there were issues in his game that popped up at bad times...and they need to be addressed whole heartedly.

In the time he's been here he doesn't just sit back during the offseason so I expect him to improve.

Agree. I think Tua's mindset this year was go for the big play, which is great when it's there.

Someone else on this site said the best approach would be to combine what Tua did well with Chan Gailey to the more aggressive quarterback under McDaniel.

We've seen Tua pick teams apart with smaller gains, so we know he's capable. He definitely has to play smarter.

 

[NBP81]

This isn't a good stat for Tua but it's also a reflection of the offense which has been broken down by numerous people across the internet. The offense rarely seemed to provide Tua with outlets/hots. Why those weren't there is a huge question. Is the offense just poorly designed? Are the wrong plays being run because Tua's pressed for time at the LOS and can't audible? Is Tua failing to read the defense appropriately?

It's fair to be disappointed but it's not clear who to be frustrated with.

What's interesting is Tua lead the league again in time to throw and still ended up getting pressured on 20% of his attempts.

So typically a little below average in this category. Does that reflect his age and lack of experience? Unfortunately, I would say no. Herbert has always ranked above Tua and we see plenty of instances of other young QBs like Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence being near the top of the rankings at times. Tua really hasn't ever had a "good" year in this department.

So it begs a bigger question--is Tua just too aggressive? Yeah, probably. He takes a lot of shots downfield and often throws dangerous passes that are lucky not be picked off. I think this is part of Tua's nature and probably something he's always going to struggle with. I don't think you get the big plays to Hill and Waddle without a QB who's always looking to take those chances throwing into the secondary. In some sense he's the opposite of what we had with Tannehill, who was a QB who'd pat the ball, take sacks and at his best check it down.

I'd rather live with the aggression than find out what happens if you take it away from him... Might sound counter intuitive but the fact 7 of his INTs came on long shots is comforting to me, I assumed it was somewhat the case but never checked for myself. I'll trade those early punts and reap the rewards that come with the risk.

 

[Mello Yello]

What's interesting is Tua lead the league again in time to throw and still ended up getting pressured on 20% of his attempts.

I'd rather live with the aggression than find out what happens if you take it away from him... Might sound counter intuitive but the fact 7 of his INTs came on long shots is comforting to me, I assumed it was somewhat the case but never checked for myself. I'll trade those early punts and reap the rewards that come with the risk.

Exactly, Tua never would have been the compelling prospect he was had it not been for that distinct aggression--the willingness to operate college football's most prolific passing attack. That's the sports car you bought, right? The gas mileage just isn't going to be it's best feature. You live with that.

I'd be more worried if the Int% was consistently above 3% for instance where you find Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, etc. I emphasize "consistently" because there are examples of good QBs having bad years. Prescott led the lead with a 3.8% rate in '22 for instance. Just a random fluke.

But Tua's been consistently average in this area of his game. It's just not a strength of his. Okay, he's coming out of year #4. I'm not worried about it. Is he great? No. Is it important stat? Yeah, kind of. It does certainly identify some of the league's worst QBs (see those I listed). But it's hard to point to Tua's 2.3 career average and make a case for anything negative.

 

[powerball1373]

He can improve his foot speed and his scrambling. And when to run.

This season was a weird reaction to the concussions of last year (re: bulking up and scrambling).

The offense can be improved by having better available hot reads, outlet passes, quick hitters, etc. to him, if there's quick pressure.

If you think what you've seen of Tua is the best you'll ever see, you don't know him.

He will work to master whatever facet of his game is holding him back.

How bout that bulked up tush tho?

 

[mwestberry]

Oh look another lazy thread from Tua's Tushboi.

At least add a LITTLE bit of your own thoughts rather than just copy pasting lmao. Unless you're Barry Jackson, which would be kinda funny and sad.

Oh look, another bash the OP without addressing the thread ...

You can put statistics together in whatever fashion that looks good to you ... or bad.

As an NFL Qb you have to be the centerpiece and leader of the offense... at least, IMO ...

Tua has plenty of stats and games that show he can play in this league ... what he hasn't shown is the ability to shoulder the team (consistently) the way the "elite" Qb's show practically on a weekly basis. Do those Qb's have a better OL every time they show their "it" factor? Regardless of the "reasons" in your minds, if you think Tua has displayed the traits of a champion NFL quarterback then your standards may be too low IMO.
He's a great passer of the ball when the timing works out ... when it doesn't you could flip a coin.

If you think what you've seen of Tua is the best you'll ever see, you don't know him.

I know, right? Good thing he's only 25.